Fantasy: Football Stock Market - Week 4

Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.

Buy
QB Ben Roethlisberger – Steelers
Week 3 Stats: 25/37 364 Yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 2 Fum

It’s been a slow start for Roethlisberger. He’s yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game, and he’s turned the ball over eight times. On the bright side, his 8.8 overall rating and 7.5 rating in the passing game are not embarrassing. His 8.7 yards per attempt is sixth best and one spot ahead of Cam Newton.

He also ranks seventh in passing yards with 942. Also, keep in mind he is averaging 36 pass attempts per game. If he continues this pace it would be a career best. Don’t mortgage your team’s future for Roethlisberger, but grabbing him now could pay off for weeks to come.

WR Brandon Lloyd – Broncos
Week 3 Stats: 4 Rec (7 Tgts), 38 Yds

Lloyd returned to the lineup after sitting out of the second game. His stats were less than impressive, but the Titans may have had a little to do with it as they currently rank second in fewest passing yards allowed. Of Kyle Orton’s 36 aimed passes vs. the Titans, only 5 were thrown beyond 10 yards, with only one of those going the direction of Lloyd. Also, on 12 of the 17 passes thrown his way he has been defended by someone who rated positively for the game.

RB Mark Ingram – Saints
Week 3 Stats: 9 Att, 38 Yds, 1 TD, 2 Rec (2 Tgts), -3 Yds

Thankfully for those not owning Ingram, he is having the worst season of the three Saints running backs. Although he finally scored a touchdown, his 3.6 yards per carry is a team worst among running backs. Of the three, he is the only one rated negatively (-1.4) in the running game, and he still ranks last in total snaps – Darren Sproles 96, Pierre Thomas 73 and Mark Ingram 61. If the touchdown wasn't enough to get Ingram owners excited about what lies ahead, allow me to show you the positive signs and why he’s still someone you should target.

Each game has ended very favorable for Ingram, and I’m almost ready to start calling him the NFL’s Mariano Rivera. In week one, the Saints trailed by eight and were one yard away from the end-zone. Instead of allowing Brees to throw it for the 50th time, the ball was handed to Ingram.

Unfortunately he did not convert. The following week he had another moment of failure when he was trusted to grind out yards and run out the clock. On his second carry, of what they hoped would be the final drive, he fumbled the ball away. The promising point to take away is he was given the game’s final two carries after they got the ball back. Finally, he closed out last week's game-winning drive by scoring from 13 yards out. After Houston turned the ball over on downs, Ingram got all three carries in attempt to close the game, although he failed to convert a first down.
Think of the positive but use the negative as leverage to still buy low.

Hold
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – Bills
Week 3 Stats: 27/40 369 Yds, 2 TDs, 2 Ints

The campaign to sell high on Ryan Fitzpatrick has begun. Those in favor point to his results from last season. As he took over the starting job in week 3, Fitzpatrick threw multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games. From there, it was mostly downhill. He exceeded 300 yards on one occasion and threw multiple touchdowns only twice more. Even if this does take place again, I found a few reasons why you should hold Fitzpatrick a few more weeks.

Realizing the Bills play the Bengals and Giants in the upcoming weeks, I wanted to find holes in the play of each team’s pass defense. The Giants have given two 300 yard passing games, so it’s easy to see a flaw exists. With further research I found most of the pass yardage given up has come from throws of 10 yards or more. They are actually the only team to have more than 70% of their passing yards against come from such throws. The Bengals are currently middle of the pack with a percentage of 53.3. Their weakness comes with the yards per completion of these throws. On throws of 10 yards or more, the Bengals have had 11 completed on them for an average of 27.4 yards. Only two teams are worse. This is too much to pass up and should allow Fitzpatrick’s value to sore to new heights.

WR Nate Burleson – Lions
Week 3 Stats: 2 Rec (3 Tgts), 12 Yds

One man is the primary reason Burleson was held to two catches this past weekend. This man’s coverage is the same reason those catches went for only 12 yards. His name is Antoine Winfield. Burleson played a total of 73 snaps this past weekend. Playing back the game, I counted 48 times Winfield covered or at least lined up against him before the snap. Winfield graded as the second best in pass coverage for the Vikings with a 1.3 rating. He ranks as the 20th best corner back in pass coverage for the season, and he has never finished a season below a 1.0 pass coverage rating.

This was a difficult matchup for Burleson to succeed in, especially since Matthew Stafford exploited some stuff with running backs and in the middle with Brandon Pettigrew. Hold onto him for now. As explained in the week 2 stock market, when I suggested buying on Burleson, he has a handful of favorable games ahead.

Sell
RB Tim Hightower – Redskins
Week 3 Stats: 14 Att, 41 Yds, 5 Rec (6Tgts), 39 Yds, 1 TD

For the second time in three weeks, Hightower averaged less than three yards per rush. If you own him and are looking to sell you can still use two things in your favor. He scored a touchdown in the passing game, and he still receives a high majority of the carries. His backup, Roy Helu, saw his carries decrease after averaging 7.4 yards per rush the week prior. Don’t look at this as a reason to keep him. Instead, focus on the concerns of owning Hightower, which includes his poor rating as a runner.

Of backs seeing at least 25% of snaps, Hightower’s -0.2 rating as a runner ranks him 33rd. Making matters worse, he has a tackle, guard, center and fullback who all rate positively as run-blockers. Tackle Trent Williams is the fourth best tackle with 4.2 rating. Guard Kory Lichtensteiger has 18 guards rated ahead of him, but he has a positive rating of 0.9. Center Will Montgomery is tied for fifth at his position with a 3.3 rating. As a bonus, although he has only played in 32 snaps, fullback Darrel Young rates among the best at his position with a 1.6 rating. This should equal yards produced but it has not, which is why I would see about moving him now.

WR Dwayne Bowe – Chiefs
Week 3 Stats: 4 Rec (5 Tgts), 67 Yds, 1 TD

With everything crumbling around him, use Dwayne Bowe’s current stretch to sell high. Last season was a breakout season for Bowe, but last season the passing game had the luxury of being supported by a great running attack. With Jamaal Charles gone for the season, an already mediocre quarterback becomes less effective.

Last season, only 12 wide receivers saw more passes than Dwayne Bowe. This was just enough to make up for the average play of Matt Cassel. Making matters worse this season, Cassel has regressed. Look no further than the PFF signature stats for evidence. Last year he the 14th best QB according to the PFF QB rating. He is currently only ranking ahead of Kerry Collins. For yards in the air, both with and without dropped passes, Cassel was a solid performer in 2010. This is another category he currently ranks near the bottom. Combine this with Bowe being on pace to see 24 less passes this season; you have a receiver who can’t be trusted on a weekly basis.