Fantasy: Football Stock Market - Week 1

Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.

To welcome back another season, lets look at one guy who could shine large, a couple to keep a watchful eye on, a group of pass-catchers to show patience with, and a running back to sell as fast as you can.

Buy

QB Jason Campbell – Raiders

Of Jason Campbell’s final nine games played in 2010, only the game against Pittsburgh was a worthless performance. Eight other times he was more than serviceable, yet he was likely ignored in your league. Before you begin to think he won’t continue this because of the loss of Zach Miller, I remind you Miller was a non factor for six of the eight contests. During this stretch, he averaged 226 passing yards per game, along with 17.5 rushing. He added 11 touchdown passes and one rushing. Efficiency and reliability was another strong point. His quarterback rating was over 90 six times and he turned over the ball only four times.

What I love most is the improving corps of receivers, as long as they finally realize Darrius Heyward-Bey cannot play. By all reports, Denarius Moore seems like he is ready to contribute as a rookie and Jacoby Ford brings their much desired big-play ability. He’s also aided by two very good running backs, with one being a game-changer in Darren McFadden.

Looking at the schedule, I only fear playing Campbell in a handful of contests. Even more desirable is his schedule during the bye week period. This includes Houston, Cleveland, Kansas City, Denver, San Diego and Minnesota. Most of his best performances came against Denver Kansas City and San Diego. Take advantage of this and make sure you don’t let him pass you by.

RB Joe McKnight – Jets

Most of us are aware of LaDainian Tomlinson slowing down as last season wore on. Well, he hasn’t looked any quicker thus far in 2011. While Shonn Greene takes over as the Jets’ feature back, the “Ground and Pound” running attack the Jets want to run requires a second horse – Joe McKnight needs to be that. While McKnight may have little value early, I will not be surprised if he earns a chance to see more than 10 touches per game down the stretch as he provides the speed they lost with the departure of Brad Smith who acted as half back  in Wildcat formations.

Last season’s meaningless week seventeen game against the Bills is the only playing time McKnight saw, which makes it very difficult to evaluate how he will perform. What does make it impressive is he ran against an NFL starting defense, albeit the Bills were one of the worst against the run. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 32 attempts. Buffalo surrendered 4.8 yards per carry for the season, so McKnight surpassed the expected.

It will be tough to justify a roster spot for McKnight, but runner-friendly matchups against Kansas City, Buffalo (twice), Denver, Washington and Oakland make for some delightful days ahead.

TE Aaron Hernandez – Patriots

The Patriots kept him busy early in 2010, but Week 8 was the last time Aaron Hernandez was involved in more than 40% of the offensive snaps. With the Patriots adding Chad Ochocinco, many believe Hernandez will see a continued decrease in playing time. I strongly disagree. Instead, I expect Deion Branch to play less, making room for the Patriots to run even more two tight end sets (a category they led the NFL in back in 2010). Even if Rob Gronkowski continues to play as the primary tight end, Hernandez only needs to see the field 35% of the time to succeed. His final regular season game exemplifies this. He played 35.5% of the snaps, had 5 passes thrown his way, caught 4 for 31 yards, and scored 2 touchdowns. This was his second best performance of the season.

With his talent too difficult to ignore, take a chance on assuming his playing time will increase. In the games he played more than 35% of the snaps, Hernandez averaged 12 FPPG in PPR leagues. This would have ranked as the fifth best scoring tight end.

Hold

Colts Offense – Especially Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark

Good luck trying to dump your mess off onto someone else’s roster. Each player’s fantasy value is at its lowest possible point. I know it’s a trying task to not overreact, but take a deep breath and let this play itself out. If you can steal someone in a trade, by all means go for it. Since you likely won’t, sit back and see if Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark or Joseph Addai surprises you. If they do – sell, sell, sell!

The following stats make for a strong case to hold onto each player and stay patient. Here are the performances of WR Kenny Britt and TE Jared Cook with Kerry Collins as the Titans starting quarterback last season. It gives you an idea of how Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark could perform.

Kenny Britt

Jared Cook

Sell

RB Marshawn Lynch – Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch’s run against the Saints in the opening weekend of last year’s playoffs will go down as one of the greatest runs any of us have ever seen. He is one of the leagues best at breaking off of or making guys miss tackles. Among running backs who took at least 25% of their team’s offensive snaps, Lynch ranked tied for 11^th in making guys miss. He also cracked the Top 25 in yards gained after contact. While impressive, don’t let this cloud your judgment of him. We are still talking about a guy who was nearly doubled in yards per carry by league-leader Jamaal Charles. Forty-eight other running backs finished ahead of Lynch in this category.

See if you can sell him before the season starts. His first two games come against last year’s two best defenses in terms of rushing yards per carry against – San Francisco and Pittsburgh.