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Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 13

Detroit, Michigan, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) makes a catch as Detroit Lions cornerback Darius Slay (23) defends during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

As the NFL becomes more and more pass-heavy, fantasy football managers need to know where and how teams are distributing their targets in the passing game.

Receiver usage data — specifically targets, air yards and routes run — is much better at predicting future receiving production than simply scanning box scores. This passing report analyzes every team’s target, air yard and route run from the previous week so that fantasy managers can make informed decisions with information that's actionable and up to date.

The report includes five categories, which are defined as the following:

  • Target: a pass attempt to a receiver
  • Target share: the percentage of targets that a player receives out of his team’s total number of targeted pass attempts
  • Route run %: the percentage of routes run by a receiver out of his team’s total number of passing plays
  • Air yards: the number of yards the ball travels in the air for every pass attempt, measured from the point at which the QB throws the football to the receiver’s location at the spot of the target.
  • Air-yard share: the percentage of air yards a player receives out of his team’s total air yards.

Additionally, we can leverage this data to provide actionable DFS analysis for the Week 13 slate and suggest waiver wire pickups for your fantasy leagues.

Before we get to the team-by-team breakdown, I have identified several players who have recently seen their roles change. These players have new receiving usage data over the last few games, indicating a potential change in their future production. Their fantasy stock is either rising or falling based on these usage metrics.

Fantasy Football Stock Up Fantasy Football Stock Down
WR Gabriel Davis RB Alvin Kamara
WR DeVante Parker WR Mecole Hardman
WR Amari Cooper WR Jakeem Grant
WR Jarvis Landry WR Jamison Crowder
WR Collin Johnson WR Travis Fulgham
TE Robert Tonyan
WR Keke Coutee
WR Michael Thomas
WR Denzel Mims
WR Damiere Byrd

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT


Player Targets Target Share Route Run % Air Yards Air-Yard Share
DeAndre Hopkins 7 23% 98% 62 30%
Christian Kirk 6 19% 93% 76 36%
Andy Isabella 5 16% 69% 14 7%
Chase Edmonds 5 16% 40% 7 3%
Kenyan Drake 3 10% 38% 8 4%
Dan Arnold 2 6% 55% 34 16%
Maxx Williams 2 6% 38% 4 2%
KeeSean Johnson 1 3% 14% 5 2%
DFS Angle

The DFS community has been clamoring to FREE ANDY ISABELLA for two years now, and we finally were rewarded with a 69% route rate and career-high five targets. If Larry Fitzgerald misses Week 13 with COVID-19, Isabella is a very intriguing tournament dart throw priced at just $3,200. He was a popular cheap punt in Week 12 but disappointed those who started him — there could be a great flop-lag one week later, considering Isabella saw the usage we all hoped for despite the underwhelming 4-33 receiving line.

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