J.J. Nelson's rise to being a relevant fantasy receiver

(“Today’s Crazy Fantasy Stat” is an occasional offseason offering from PFF that highlights something that catches our eye and aids in our preparation for the 2017 fantasy season.)

In the 2015 season, Arizona Cardinals WR J.J. Nelson put up 42 fantasy points on only 24 targets. That was 1.75 fantasy points per target, third in the league behind Doug Baldwin and Tavon Austin, for all wide receivers with at least 14 targets.

Of course, that 14-target threshold was significant, as that is a very low number. A big game, a couple touchdowns, and a guy could finish high on that list without actually having a good year. Still, Nelson had blazing speed (4.28-second 40 at the combine in 2015) on an explosive offense with a quarterback who liked to throw deep. The thinking then was, if something happened to at least one of Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, and/or John Brown, Nelson and/or Jaron Brown would have a chance to shine, and Nelson had done a lot with a little already.

Well, a lot did happen to those receivers last year. Fitzgerald was fine, but Floyd fell flat, John Brown dealt with injuries and illness, and Jaron Brown tore his ACL. Nelson wasn’t featured in the offense, but his role grew over the year. Over the season, he caught 34 of 67 targets for 568 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, adding 83 yards and a score on the ground as well. That was only good enough to tie him for 45th in WR fantasy scoring (tied for 55th in PPR), which isn’t spectacular, but let’s look at the splits:

Extrapolate the first split over 16 games, and Nelson would have had 73 fantasy points, No. 66 among receivers in 2016. The second split? That would have worked out to 260 points, the No. 1 WR by a wide margin.

Now, obviously, Nelson won’t maintain that pace over 16 games. In Weeks 13 and 14, he caught one pass per game and scored a touchdown on each (and had one carry and scored on that as well). But he earned a bigger role, averaging 10 targets a game over the last three weeks. With Floyd out of the picture, he was involved.

Nelson’s unlikely to ever be a PPR asset — not with Fitzgerald and David Johnson both still in the offense. But as a deep threat roughly in the DeSean Jackson mold, Nelson is interesting. He had the highest average depth of target in the league (18.1 yards) of any receiver with at least 50 targets, 1.2 yards higher than Jackson’s 16.9. A year after leading the league in fantasy points per target by virtue of not many targets, he fell in 2016 — to sixth, and fourth among those with 50-plus targets. It’s quality over quantity, but he’s good for that quality.

With positive reports about Carson Palmer entering the preseason, and Nelson having more of a defined role in the team’s offense, he could build on his 2016 numbers in 2017. Fitzgerald, Johnson and John Brown make things complicated for him, but this is an offense that supported all three of those guys and Michael Floyd as recently as 2015. Nelson is going off the board 59th among wide receivers in standard leagues, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, but 77th per My Fantasy League, which specializes in best-ball games. That’s obviously backward — Nelson is a best-ball goldmine and should go higher there — but he deserves more consideration in any game format.

(Also, not for nothing, he's entering his third year, and the “third-year receiver breakout” is still a phenomenon worth monitoring.)

You don’t want to draft Nelson as a starter in your fantasy league, but as a late-round lottery ticket, there isn’t much more upside out there. Consider Nelson late in the draft as a potential breakout candidate.