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Expected fantasy points: The top fantasy usage through Week 6

Dec 30, 2018; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) is congratulated by wide receiver Chris Godwin (12) after catching a pass for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Hello, and welcome to Week 7 of the XFPR — the Expected Fantasy Points Report. If you’re unfamiliar with expected fantasy points, you can read this in-depth explanation from the offseason. You can read more about expected touchdowns.

Every week we’ll be using a 10-season sample of play-by-play data to calculate expected fantasy points from a player’s seasonal or weekly usage. We look at each target (by distance from the end zone and depth of target) and each carry (by distance from the end zone and down and distance) and add this up to determine how valuable a player’s role was for fantasy. We can contrast this with fantasy production to measure efficiency.

In layman’s terms, expected fantasy points measures the exact worth of a player’s volume — “how many points a player should have scored” given his workload, based on what the average player would have scored.

Through six weeks of action, here are the top-25 players in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game:

[Note: Full-season XFP is now available for download in spreadsheet form. We’ll be releasing it each week in our PFF Elite Facebook Group. This spreadsheet will also include valuable PFF-exclusive metrics like XTD, air yards, end zone targets, and more. If you’re not already an Elite subscriber I highly recommend joining.]

Chris Godwin/Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Bcucaneers

(Godwin XFP: 16.1, PPR: 24.2; Evans XFP: 16.6, PPR: 16.2)

Last week, Evans led all players in XFP (30.0), though Chris Godwin still outscored him by 6.5 fantasy points. This one-week sample can also be taken as a microcosm of the 2019 season for both players — Evans seeing the better volume, but Godwin being the more productive of the two wide receivers. Evans ranks sixth among all wide receivers in XFP per game (16.6), while Godwin ranks eighth (16.1). However, Godwin leads all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (24.2), while Evans ranks 16th (16.2).

Godwin has been our single-most-efficient player this season (8.1), while Evans ranks below average for the fourth time in five seasons. Godwin will come back down to earth at some point this season but he should still be valued as a top-five wide receiver. Evans, meanwhile, will likely remain the volume-reliant low-end WR1 he’s always been.

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