News & Analysis

Week 11 Daily fantasy football picks: Locks

By Tyler Loechner
Nov 17, 2018

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Sep 9, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) gestures to a receiver in the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Who are the best fantasy football plays for building an optimal DFS lineup in Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season? As we do every Saturday, this piece brings you the DFS locks of the week.

This piece will go over the players you can lock into your DFS lineups for optimal performance.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

In four home games this year, Brees is completing 80% of his passes while averaging 347 passing yards and three touchdowns per game — with no interceptions. And this week he gets an Eagles defense that ranks bottom-10 in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks as an 8.5-point home favorite in a game with a total over/under of 56. He’s not going to fail.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz is averaging 23 DraftKings points per game this season, which is good for a 3.65x return on value from his $6,300 salary. He’s an even better value on FanDuel, where he’s just $7,700 this week. This Eagles/Saints game has a high chance of ending in a shootout with Wentz going to work against a Saints defense that has given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott is the No. 14-priced quarterback on DraftKings and the No. 10-priced quarterback on FanDuel. However, over his last four games, Prescott is fourth in both DraftKings and FanDuel points, and this week he gets a Falcons defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Prescott has been on fire (for fantasy), his matchup is great, and his price doesn’t reflect either of these facts.

Running backs

Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers

Gordon leads a long list of elite running backs that are great options in DFS this week. His Chargers are 7-point home favorites against a Broncos defense that has given up 4.9 YPC to running backs on the year.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

McCaffrey draws a Lions defense that has ceded the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs (1,115) with over 100 rushing yards allowed in six of nine games. Detroit has also allowed a running back to score on them in four straight games.

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

DJ is back, and he’ll keep rolling in Week 11 against a Raiders defense that has given up over 110 rushing yards to opposing backfields in seven of nine games. The Raiders have given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs overall (1,156).

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

Elliott gets one of the best running back matchups in the league against the Falcons, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to the position on the year. Running backs are averaging over 4.8 YPC against Atlanta and have collected a league-high 76 receptions against their defense. Elliott has been a regular contributor through the air this season with 44 targets (nearly five per game).

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Barkley should destroy a Buccaneers defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points per touch to opposing running backs on the year, including over 130 total yards and over 1.5 touchdowns per game to the position. Barkley ranks first among running backs with 8.1 targets per game.

Wide receivers

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

OBJ versus a Buccaneers defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the second-most touchdowns allowed to the position (15) is a matchup you can’t ignore. A receiver has scored at least once against the Bucs in every game this year.

Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints

Thomas will gut the Eagles secondary, which has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers and has been undressed by No. 1 WRs this year, including Julio Jones (10-169-0), Mike Evans (10-83-1), Corey Davis (9-161-1), and Adam Thielen (7-116-1).

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Hopkins gets a Redskins defense that has given up over 200 receiving yards to opposing wideouts (as a whole) in five of their last six games. No other team is on as bad of a stretch. For reference, the Bills and Jaguars — two of the best pass defenses in the NFL — haven’t allowed opposing receiving corps to top 200 yards on them all season.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions

With Golden Tate no longer in town and Marvin Jones ruled out for Week 11, Golladay is going to be force-fed targets, and you’d be foolish not to play him in this situation at this price point. With no Tate last week and a banged-up Jones, Golladay absorbed 30% of the team’s targets (12 looks). I’m considering double-digit targets a lock.

Tight ends

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Ertz doesn’t have the best paper matchup (New Orleans has given up the second-fewest fantasy point per target to tight ends), but I think we can consider Ertz matchup-proof at this point thanks to his volume. His 98 targets are tied for third in the entire NFL … with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham. It helps, too, that this Week 11 matchup against the Saints has a DFS-friendly over/under of 56.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals

Seals-Jones is incredibly cheap ($2,900 DK; $5,200 FD) and he’s coming off a season-high nine-target game against the Chiefs. Seals-Jones ranks second on the Cardinals in targets (13) since the team fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, and he this week faces an Oakland defense that has given up the most fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends.

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