Can Le'Veon Bell break the record for consecutive 50-yard games?

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine players and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

We start with Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell and his impressive streak of 47 straight games with 50-plus yards from scrimmage. He already has the seventh-longest streak in history (since 1920) and could break the record this year (60). Here is the list of the top 10, via Pro Football Reference:

Name	Game Count	Start Date	End Date
O.J. Simpson	60	10/15/1972	10/31/1976
Priest Holmes	59	9/30/2001	10/30/2005
William Andrews	54	9/28/1980	12/18/1983
Jamal Lewis	48	10/22/2000	11/14/2004
Barry Sanders	48	10/8/1995	9/28/1998
Tony Dorsett	48	9/25/1983	9/21/1986
Le'Veon Bell	47	9/29/2013	Present
Edgerrin James	44	9/12/1999	10/21/2002
LaDainian Tomlinson	42	10/30/2005	9/7/2008
Ray Rice	41	10/10/2010	12/9/2012
LaDainian Tomlinson	41	9/9/2001	11/9/2003

How did he get here?

The easiest place to start is with Bell’s receiving ability. In those 47 games, he has topped 50 yards an astounding 19 times just as a receiver. Overall, he has averaged nearly 43 receiving yards per game during this streak. Only five times did he have fewer than two receptions and only once was he completely shut out of the passing game. His yards per route run during this time (1.49) would have had him as a top-12 running back during any of the last four years, showing off Bell’s consistent dominance in the receiving game.

Oh right, Bell runs as well. His overall elusiveness has been exceptional, landing in the top 10 in elusive rating in three of the last four seasons. He also was top-12 in missed tackles on rushes in three of the four seasons, further showing Bell’s stability as a player. This has all led to an average of 82 rush yards per game during this streak with only one game with fewer than double-digit carries, compared to 24 games with 20-plus rushes.

All this adds up to a player who is capable of being on the field every play. While that’s not very reasonable for a running back, it is not far off in Bell’s case. He played 80 percent of the team’s snaps over the course of this streak including over 90 percent of the offensive snaps in 2016. It gives Bell plenty of opportunities to touch the ball and rack up the yardage.

Can he set the mark?

Bell needs 14 more games to break the record, so the best place to start is by peaking at the Steelers’ 2017 NFL schedule. Here is how it breaks down with a look at defensive, run defense, and pass coverage grade ranks from 2016:

Week	Opponent	Defense Grade	Run Defense Grade	Pass Coverage Grade
1	Cleveland Browns	29^th	25^th	28^th
2	Minnesota Vikings	16^th	16^th	18^th
3	Chicago Bears	23^rd	11^th	25^th
4	Baltimore Ravens	10^th	2^nd	9^th
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	14^th	13^th	11^th
6	Kansas City Chiefs	13^th	24^th	6^th
7	Cincinnati Bengals	18^th	22^nd	13^th
8	Detroit Lions	31^st	28^th	26^th
9	Bye
10	Indianapolis Colts	32^nd	31^st	30^th
11	Tennessee Titans	19^th	10^th	27^th
12	Green Bay Packers	22^nd	5^th	32^nd
13	Cincinnati Bengals	18^th	22^nd	13^th
14	Baltimore Ravens	10^th	2^nd	9^th
15	New England Patriots	1^st	3^rd	3^rd
16	Houston Texans	4^th	15^th	2^nd
17	Cleveland Browns	29^th	25^th	28^th

Besides the possibility that he breaks the record against the Patriots, which is just a fun matchup anyway, there are a few road blocks assuming these 2016 grades have some carry over. Other than the Patriots, who had the top defensive grade and third-highest run-defense and pass-coverage grades, the two divisional games against the Ravens stand out. However, during his drive to break the record, he will largely face middling defenses based on PFF grading.

From a personnel standpoint, the Steelers mostly remain the same. Their biggest addition already plays for the Steelers in Martavis Bryant, assuming his reinstatement comes through. While he may not be a great run-blocker (poor grades in both NFL seasons), Bryant’s ability to threaten the big play can only help Bell. Add in the fact that the top 10 offensive line from 2016 has all five starters returning and Bell should be in an optimal situation.

Will he set the mark?

Clearly, Bell can set the mark, as there are few substantial changes or hurdles in his way. His team is strong and the schedule, while not favorable, does not present many major challenges either. The suspension risk does not factor in and his injury concerns are similar to other running backs. He has continued this streak with offensive linemen, wide receivers, and/or his quarterback out of the lineup so the risk of other players falling out and impacting Bell’s performance is also low.

Confidence Level: 80%

What does this mean for fantasy?

One of the more underrated aspects of player selection in fantasy is weekly reliability, especially when drafting in the early rounds. If Bell’s floor remains 50-plus yards per week along with the reception (in PPR leagues) and touchdown upside, the top-three average draft position is completely justified. It also makes those middle- and late-round selections mining for upside a lower-risk proposition knowing what Bell consistently brings to the table.

Bell is the rare player who will not only win fantasy weeks, but will not lose fantasy weeks either. Not only should owners draft with confidence, but he is a weekly must-start regardless of matchup and personnel around him.