Fantasy Football ADP Battle: Courtland Sutton vs. D.K. Metcalf

• Courtland Sutton delivered a career year in 2024: After serving as the clear top option in Denver’s passing game last season, Sutton is expected to reprise that role in 2025.

• D.K. Metcalf looks for a fresh start in Pittsburgh: After a down year in 2024, Metcalf is expected to bounce back as the top target in his new team’s passing attack in 2025.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.

Today’s matchup features Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver D.K. Metcalf as we evaluate which player offers better value near the end of the fourth round in fantasy drafts.

COURTLAND SUTTON (WR27) vs. D.K. METCALF (WR28)

Sutton is coming off a career-best fantasy season and was one of the best values in 2024 drafts, where he was selected well outside the top 36 wide receivers. While he didn’t deliver week-winning performances every Sunday, he was a consistent fantasy starter throughout the year as Denver’s top receiving option, finishing no worse than WR32 in 12 of 17 games.

In contrast, Metcalf is coming off his worst fantasy season, finishing as the overall PPR WR34. He opened the year strong, ranking as the WR6 through the first seven weeks, but missed two games due to injury. From Week 11 through Week 17, he slipped to WR36, having ceded the lead receiver role to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Now in Pittsburgh, Metcalf will look for a fresh start as the Steelers’ top target in 2025.

OFFENSIVE INVOLVEMENT

Sutton more than doubled the target total of any other Broncos player in 2024, leading the team in all major receiving categories on a weekly basis. He finished top 12 among wide receivers in total targets (132) and surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019. With Denver making no major additions at wide receiver this offseason, Sutton remains firmly entrenched as the team’s top option in the passing game.

As noted earlier, Metcalf took a back seat to Jaxon Smith-Njigba during the second half of last season but now has a chance to reestablish himself as a primary target following his trade to Pittsburgh. Metcalf has the skill set and opportunity to lead the Steelers in receiving, especially given the current makeup of the roster. He’s just one season removed from ranking inside the top 20 at his position in both targets and receiving grade.

PRODUCTION AND PERFORMANCE

Sutton wasn’t the most efficient wide receiver relative to his position, but his high target volume helped offset those concerns — an acceptable tradeoff in fantasy football. That volume-driven stability is a key part of his appeal heading into 2025, where continued target dominance should sustain both his ADP and fantasy value throughout the season.

Metcalf, meanwhile, posted his lowest receiving grade and yards per route run since his rookie season in 2024. He’ll look to rebound in 2025 with a fresh start in Pittsburgh. While the Aaron Rodgers-led offense may bring changes to the scheme, one thing is clear: Metcalf enters the season as the undisputed top target in the Steelers’ passing game.

HIGH-VALUE TARGET INVOLVEMENT

Sutton scored seven of his eight touchdowns in 2024 as a heavily targeted option in the red zone. He ranked top 10 among wide receivers in both total red-zone targets (22) and target rate, making his role in high-value scoring situations a key part of his fantasy appeal. While Sutton may not offer elite efficiency, his consistent volume in critical areas helps maintain his value heading into 2025.

Metcalf, on the other hand, saw a career-low nine red-zone targets in 2024, with an 18.0% target rate in that area—his second-worst mark to date and outside the top 45 at his position. With George Pickens, Pittsburgh’s primary red-zone threat last season, no longer on the roster, Metcalf is expected to inherit that role. Given his similar skill set, he’s well-positioned to rebound after a career-low five-touchdown season.

TEAM PASSING/QUARTERBACK SITUATION

Bo Nix had a solid rookie campaign in 2024, finishing top 12 in passing yards (3,775) and posting one of the league’s lowest turnover-worthy play rates (1.9%) in a pass-heavy offense that saw him attempt 567 passes, the sixth-most in the league. Nix proved to be more than competent in Sean Payton’s system and, heading into 2025, represents a clear quarterback advantage for Sutton when compared to Metcalf’s situation.

With Aaron Rodgers officially signed in Pittsburgh, the outlook for Metcalf’s passing environment has improved, especially compared to the possibility of Mason Rudolph starting. While Rodgers is no longer the MVP-caliber quarterback of past seasons, he still generated enough volume in 2024 for both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams to finish as top-15 fantasy wide receivers. That precedent provides reason for optimism that Metcalf can outperform his current ADP.

POTENTIAL 2025 TARGET COMPETITION

Denver’s newest addition, Evan Engram, may pose the greatest threat to Sutton’s target share as a legitimate receiving option at tight end, something the Broncos lacked in 2024. There’s also potential for Marvin Mims to take a step forward in Year 3 after posting encouraging rate stats last season, though his involvement came on a limited sample of fewer than 200 routes.

As noted throughout this piece, Pittsburgh doesn’t present much target competition for Metcalf in his first year with the team. Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson and Robert Woods could all vie for the WR2 role, but a committee approach seems likely. Pat Freiermuth has finished second on the team in targets in two of the past three seasons but has never seriously challenged the lead receiver's share, an outcome that feels probable again in 2025.

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While the final decision is yours, don’t go into your draft blind. Check out PFF’s latest fantasy football rankings to see exactly where Courtland Sutton, D.K. Metcalf and the rest of your targets stack up heading into 2025.