Identifying targets that can smash expectations in the middle and late rounds of fantasy drafts is one of the best ways to dominate a fantasy league. Last year, if a fantasy manager took Jaylen Waddle (WR12) in Round 9, they likely had the best WR3 or flex option in the league – which is an enormous advantage.
- Average draft position (ADP) after Round 7 (pick 84) based on ESPN, RTSports and Fantrax PPR leagues.
- Must have a role in the offense, handcuff options are excluded.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers | Pick 98 | QB14
It will be difficult for Lance not to finish as a top-10 fantasy option at quarterback due to his rushing prowess. Since 2011, no quarterback with 750 or more rushing yards has finished lower than ninth (excluded Lamar Jackson in only 12 games last year). That list includes Robert Griffin III (QB5) in his rookie season when Kyle Shanahan led the offense under Mike Shanahan in Washington.
There were a few concerns that Jimmy Garoppolo could challenge for snaps if still on the roster, but Shanahan recently put those worries to bed, stating: “We have moved on to Trey,” when asked about the 49ers’ starting quarterback situation for 2022.
Lance’s floor is probably much higher than your league mates think due to his rushing ability. His upside comes via mastery of the passing game, and he is surrounded by an elite trio of weapons in Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.
We can’t overstate Lance’s underlying data points last year due to a tiny sample, but he posted an eye-popping 0.75 fantasy points on his 86 dropbacks. That is 2020 Lamar Jackson-esque.
Can you imagine drafting Jackson’s production three to four rounds later in drafts? That is in Lance’s bull-case range, and he carries No. 1 QB overall upside if he finds a groove via the air. He is a critical component of the 2022 QB draft plan.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears | Pick 120 | QB17