Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – Planning for 2012

Despite all of our planning, researching, projecting and analyzing – at the end of the day no one truly knows what will happen tomorrow unless you have a crystal ball or a Delorean.   Injuries result in disappointing performances and produce breakout candidates from nowhere.  If injuries are not enough to drive a fantasy owner crazy there is another element that cannot be quantified – luck. The best way to eliminate luck in dynasty leagues is to have the deepest roster possible. By hoarding talent, it is easier to weather the storm of untimely injuries or significant depth chart changes.

This week I will highlight players that will help build out the end of your roster. In addition, I will cover several players whose value has improved significantly over the past two months. Here are the slants this week:

Moving on Up or Down

I updated my dynasty rankings yesterday.  For the most part, there was only minimal movement and the inclusion of several players that were not in the October update. Here is a few players of note that have much a different outlook than before:

QB Cam Newton CAR (+9)

Cam Newton continues to impress as a rookie. I have upgraded him to QB5 – something I did not think I would say this season after I ranked Newton sixth among all rookies this summer. He ranks fourth in fantasy points despite only 12 passing touchdowns – but has 10 rushing touchdowns to make up the difference. Newton’s long-term success will be tied to his development as a passer and the addition of more offensive weapons around him.

QB Josh Freeman TB (-9)

Josh Freeman is regressing badly this season. Just a season after he finished as QB8 with 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, Freeman checks in now as QB16 with 12 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. On the PFF Grading Scale, Freeman has gone from QB9 (+42.1) to QB22 (+14.2). Tampa Bay’s offense as a whole has been less consistent this year, but it brings up questions whether Freeman can once again be a top-10 quarterback – or if he will be demoted to an average fantasy quarterback.

RB DeMarco Murray DAL(+35)

DeMarco Murray has taken the fantasy world by storm since his Week 7 start against St. Louis. He has locked up the starting job in Dallas over Felix Jones with his strong play. Last week, I compared Murray to DeAngelo Williams but teased that he shared some similarities with his fellow Oklahoma alum Adrian Peterson:

RB Mark Ingram NO (-10)

Looking at the way the Saints are using their running backs (and have for several seasons), it is hard to imagine that Mark Ingram will ever become a fantasy RB1. Even Sean Payton told the ESPN Monday Night Football crew that the only thing keeping Ingram from winning the Rookie of the Year Award was his play calling. There is no denying his talent level, but the split in playing time is our biggest concern going forward.

WR Victor Cruz NYG (+48)

As I mentioned above, Victor Cruz has been one of the biggest surprises this season. The undrafted wide receiver from UMass ranks fourth among all wide receivers with 193 PPR fantasy points and tied for third in fantasy points per snap. Our own Mike Clay projected a top-15 finish this year for Mario Manningham; but Cruz has taken the job from Manningham and bested our most optimistic predictions. The question is whether Cruz can hold off Manningham for targets going forward, although it appears on the surface they can coexist – Cruz has lined up in the slot 67.77% of the time this year.

Sidney Rice SEA (-23)

Sidney Rice’s first season in Seattle has not gone well. He was leading the Seahawks in targets per game (6.2) before being placed on Injured Reserve – but a lack of opportunities and quarterback play doomed him. Rice may actually be a good buy low candidate in hopes that he bounces back in 2012 with a new quarterback.

Deep League Targets

I am often asked on Twitter for some players that are worth stashing at the end of dynasty rosters. Here is a quick list of players that could be available in your league:

QB Matt Flynn GB – Flynn impressed in his spot start in Week 15 last season versus New England. Flynn should be owned in deeper leagues by the Aaron Rodgers owner or with the hope that he could start elsewhere in 2012.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers ATL – Rodgers is short but not small (5’6”, 196 lbs.). He has a similar build to Darren Sproles, and could carve out a similar role in time.

RB Javon Ringer TEN – Ringer’s shot at becoming a feature back may not come until 2013 when he is 26 years old. His situation is similar to Michael Turner’s exit from San Diego a few years back. Patience could pay off in a big way for Ringer owners.

WR Austin Collie IND – No Colts wide receiver has suffered more with the absence of Peyton Manning than Collie. His targets per game have dropped by 2.3, touchdowns dropped from 8 to 0, drop rate has decreased by 2.3% and catch percentage has dropped by 31.2%. Collie has nowhere to go but up with either Manning or Andrew Luck/Matt Barkley throwing him passes in 2012.

WR Golden Tate SEA – Tate would have been on this list even before his good game on Thursday Night Football last night. He is a perfect example of a player that can succeed post-hype. He was underutilized until the injury to Sidney Rice, and he led all Seattle receivers in snaps by a large margin – scoring 15.5 PPR points (0.34 FP per snap).

Quick Slants

Marshawn Lynch put on a clinic against the Eagles to lead off Week 13. He scored two touchdowns, bringing his total to 8 games in a row with a touchdown scored – while gaining 100 of his 148 rushing yards after contact. Lynch raised his season average of rushing yards after contact per attempt from 1.9 to 2.4 with his effort. Lynch will only be 26 years old next season and can be counted on as a strong RB2 for the next few seasons.

Shane Vereen is making a bid for more playing time. His 0.49 fantasy points per snap and 4.3 rushing yards after contact per attempt are among the league leaders, albet in a small sample size (24 snaps).

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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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