Fantasy: Boyling Points - Week 8 edition

The hardest part of fantasy football is that a complete NFL season is comprised of just 16 games, and only 14 games for most fantasy leagues (not including the playoffs) – a very small sample size. For fantasy owners like you and me, the small sample size means we have a very limited amount of, and potentially flawed, information to use when determining what players are quality, useful or obsolete. Often times, fantasy owners and analysts make sweeping or radical judgments on player values on a week-to-week basis when the truth is that we may not have a good idea about the value of a player until the regular season is over. So here we are, stuck between a rock and a hard place: we can’t possibly use just one game, or 14 games for that matter, to properly evaluate the players in the NFL for fantasy purposes – react too soon and you trade a star because his quarterback was injured (I'm talking to you Miles Austin owners), start a dud that was really only a one-week wonder or react too late and lose out on a chance to roster a  fantasy difference maker.

The positive side is that you can take advantage of the owners in your league that are overreacting on a week-to-week basis and make favorable moves for your team. Below is some information on who I think you can target and some notes on week 8 match-ups.

As always, comment on the article or find me on Twitter @kpdboyleball with questions, concerns, love and hate.

Arizona Cardinals – Larry Fitzgerald is among the league leaders in targets (62) but has managed to turn only 46.8% of those chances into catches. The issue obviously is not that he is a bad wide receiver, Fitzgerald is considered an elite talent, but his quarterbacks have a combined -12.5 pass rating. As a result, his fantasy production has been inconsistent and Fitzgerald cannot be considered a top-tier wide receiver for the rest of this year. Beanie Wells was drafted as a #2 level fantasy running back, but a preseason injury to his knee combined with general ineffectiveness (-1.2 rush rating) has left fantasy owners disappointed. Tim Hightower has been the starting running back for Arizona,in name only (Wells actually has more carries since he’s been back). Hightower’s yards per carry (5.5) is greatly aided by an 80-yard touchdown run against Atlanta, which is also the last game he made a defender miss a tackle. The offensive line has not helped either as they have posted a -6.5 rush rating to this point. Going forward Wells is only a match-up play at running back (I like him this week against Tampa Bay) while Hightower should only be used in an emergency.

Atlanta Falcons – Michael Turner has actually played less than 50% of his snaps this year, but that is primarily due to a lack of time in passing downs in addition to leaving a game early in the year. Turner has outcarried his backfield mate, Jason Snelling, by a mark of 136 – 61 and that includes the game that Turner missed due to injury. Turner’s most recent performance (121 yards, two touchdowns) has to make fantasy owners feel good after two below average efforts against Philadelphia and San Francisco; going forward he is a number #1 back in a season where very few have earned that title. Roddy White has absolutely been the best fantasy wide receiver in 2010 and should continue considering that he is the most targeted wide receiver in the league (75) and is capable of having monster games (see week 7) while maintaining consistency (only one game with less than 10 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues). Tony Gonzalez has not produced like a top-flight fantasy tight end so far this season because he has just 292 yards and one game over 45 yards receiving despite recording 29 catches on 45 targets, among the league leaders for tight ends. Considering how thin the tight end position has become this year there is probably no one else you can get, so you’ll have to ride him. Matt Ryan has performed above my expectations this year and is a definite start when he plays at home or indoors.

Baltimore Ravens – Joe Flacco struggled early, throwing just one touchdown to four interceptions in the first two weeks, but has rebounded nicely to post respectable yardage and touchdown numbers. Flacco however, cannot be considered an every week start because he doesn’t throw for multiple scores often enough for me. Anquan Boldin has been what we have expected him to be so far and with Flacco playing better you should start him every week. Ray Rice has not produced like a top-5 running back. He has scored just two touchdowns on the year, both coming in week five against Denver, and has been targeted 16 less times through seven games this year than last year.

Buffalo Bills – Mike Clay details the fantasy value of Ryan Fitzpatrick here, and I have to say I agree on his long term prospects and I do not like him against the Chiefs. Fred Jackson has played in 73.3% and 85.0% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in the two games since Marshawn Lynch was traded, while C.J. Spiller is down to 26.7% and 15.0% in those same games. For this week I’d actually start Jackson ahead of Jahvid Best, Ronnie Brown and Beanie Wells (which puts him in my top 20). Spiller is droppable. Lee Evans and Steven Johnson have both been targeted 18.8% of the time with Fitzpatrick chucking them the ball and each has been a nice play the last few weeks; Evans has scored in two straight and Johnson in four straight. Despite that, Kansas City, Buffalo’s opponent this week, is PFF’s fourth ranked defense on the year, so I’d avoid starting either wide receiver.

Carolina Panthers – It was nice to see Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart get some more work this week, albeit against a tough 49er rush defense. I am going to stick with Williams because he is still averaging 4.2 YPC this season, which is more than Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, Matt Forte and Maurice Jones-Drew. I’m playing Williams if he can go against St. Louis and if he doesn’t, I like Stewart because he will get all the rushing work. I am not buying into David Gettis and his big game last week. He has actually played in 82.8% of the Panther’s offensive snaps this year, but did not break 40 yards receiving until week 7. Every year we see spikes in production by random wide receivers and I don’t think this is any different. Play Steve Smith with Matt Moore at quarterback, forget about Gettis.

Chicago Bears – The Bears are PFF’s worst rated offense (-76.2 overall rating) and the offensive line is especially bad, rating as the league’s worst pass blocking team (-38.5 pass block rating) and is well below average at run blocking (-23.1 run block rating). Be happy the Bears are on bye so you don’t have to talk yourself into playing Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester or Greg Olson

Cincinnati Bengals – Carson Palmer has played his two best games when his team has been down big (at New England and at Atlanta) and throwing to catch-up. In fact, in the games in which the score has been close or Cincinnati was ahead, Palmer has turned the ball (fumbles lost and interceptions) over more time than he has thrown touchdowns (5 TDS-7 turnovers in weeks 2, 3, 4 and 5). Miami’s defense is above average (46.4 overall rating) and the Cincinnati defense has been less than such (-5.3 overall rating) so the Bengals could be down, but I still don’t recommend playing him. Keep playing Cedric Benson. As much as I’d like to see Bernard Scott run it some, Benson has gotten 78% of the runs for the Bengals and you have to ride that opportunity. Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco have played almost the same number of plays on the year but Owens has been targeted more (68-60) and ranks as a more productive receiver according to PFF (3.1- Owens, -3.0 – Ochocinco).

Cleveland Browns – Even though Ben Watson was targeted just twice in week 7, he’s still the most targeted Brown and the tight end position is so thin this year you probably don’t have a better option in a lot of weeks. Peyton Hillis has been really good and continue to play him after the bye.

Dallas Cowboys – The impact of the Tony Romo injury has yet to be seen. I’m not placing a lot of stock in Dez Bryant’s breakout receiving game or that Miles Austin had just one catch with Jon Kitna at quarterback. I think the Cowboys will run it more than the 35% they have so far this year with a less than elite quarterback, which should help Felix Jones and may actually help the pass game – balance is a good thing. Don’t do anything drastic with Miles Austin, Jon Kitna is better than he showed against the Giants, and buy low if you can. Sell high on Dez Bryant; he still only plays on three wide receiver sets and will not score three touchdowns in a game again.

Denver Broncos – Knowshon Moreno scored twice against the Raiders, but both were on pass plays and he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. I’m not going to overreact to the fact that he played 100% of Denver’s snaps in week 7 because he hadn’t topped 60% in any of his other games. Plus, he apparently pulled up with a hamstring pull in London. I would avoid starting him against San Francisco, which has one of the top run defenses in the league (52.2 run defense rating). I really like the Denver pass game this week after Carolina posted a 9.5 pass rating on San Francisco in week 7. Brandon Lloyd ranks in my top-7 and I’d rather play Kyle Orton than Drew Brees.

Detroit Lions – Even though Washington, Detroit’s opponent in week 8, managed to shutdown the Chicago Bear offense this past week, they are still the third worst defense according to our PFF rankings. Play Calvin Johnson, who has been consistently targeted (no less than seven targets in any game) and often times deep, Jahvid Best, who touches the ball 18 times per game, and Brandon Pettigrew, who has turned his targets into catches (76.7 catch rate). I have no idea what Matt Stafford is going to do, but the Redskins have been bad so I can’t disagree with playing him as a high reward play

Green Bay Packers – Brandon Jackson’s highest carry total was in week one against the Eagles and since then he has played 50% – 58% of Green Bay’s plays. That workload or lack there of, means he’ll have some nice games, like in week 7, and some where you can’t believe you spent $75.00 of your FAAB budget on him, like most weeks. Greg Jennings has been more targeted since Jermichael Finley’s injury, which is notable considering his production in games with more than five targets (17 receptions and 289 yards over weeks 1, 6 and 7) compared to games with less than five targets (nine receptions and 101  yards in weeks 2-5). You’re playing him this week. Hold off on playing Donald Driver until you know he’s healthy. James Jones has some buzz this week with the possibility that Donald Driver may not play against the Jets, which would make Jones the #2 wide receiver in Green Bay. I'm not buying that Jones has a big week, or even a serviceable one; he has the lowest pass rating of any Packer receiver (-3.1) and if he starts he'll be guarded by a fully healthy Darelle Revis or Antonio Cromartie (2.5 coverage rating), both of which have allowed catch percentages below 43% putting them among the top six pass defenders in the league.

Houston Texans – With all the byes this week you probably are playing Matt Schaub against Indianapolis even though he has been inconsistent this year. You are definitely playing Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones are not good plays; Houston only threw 20 times in week one against the Colts and neither Walter or Jones have been reliable enough to produce with such limited opportunity. I do like Owen Daniels – this is more of a gut feeling because he should be closer to his pre-injury form almost a year out from his surgery.

Indianapolis Colts – With the injuries to Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai I think that Pierre Garcon is a must start for the time being. Garcon has been targeted 21 times in the two games since returning from injury and has little competition for targets from Brody Eldridge, Jacob Tamme or Blair White. Plus, neither Donald Brown nor Joseph Addai participated in practice on Wednesday and it’s unlikely that Mike Hart will run the ball 20 times against Houston, meaning the Colts will be going to the air. The oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez has practiced this week and I do think he’s worth picking up before Sunday’s game, but until we see him on the field you shouldn’t put him in your starting roster.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Maurice Jones-Drew has been a disappointment to fantasy owners – he has a 0.0 rush rating on the year so far, but he is a true number one back so you have to play him against Dallas this week. As I’ve said before, Marcedes Lewis is too risky a play because if he doesn’t score a touchdown he probably won’t help you. If you have to play a Jacksonville wide receiver, go with Mike Thomas. He’s been targeted more than Mike Sims-Walker (43-37) despite playing in 33 less plays. That being said I’d prefer Roy Williams, Dez Bryant, Lee Evans and Steve Johnson to Thomas, and I don’t like those guys very much.

Kansas City Chiefs – Thomas Jones and Jamal Charles are must-starts this week regardless of how the work is split. Buffalo has the sixth worst run defense according to PFF and both Jones and Charles have been good runners thus far (2.5 and 7.2 rush ratings, respectively). I know that Dwayne Bowe has scored two touchdowns in two consecutive weeks, but last week seemed fluky as he was targeted just five times for three catches. I know the Bills pass defense is overrated because it had so many interceptions last year, but I just cannot find myself to trust either Bowe or Matt Cassel – I think they’ll run so much there won’t be much opportunity to throw. By proxy, I also don’t like Tony Moeaki so if you need a tight end play Heath Miller or Brandon Pettigrew instead.

Miami Dolphins – Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have been disappointing fantasy players this year (794 total yards and two total touchdowns on 164 total touches) despite very good offensive line play (four offensive linemen have run block ratings of 0.8 or better and Fasano is at 4.6). Cincinnati has been a middle of the road run defense this year (8.2 rush defense rating), and Miami has thrown the ball 56% of the time so far, which further explains the fantasy futility of the Miami running backs; to conclude, I don’t like either Brown or Williams this week. You have to start Brandon Marshall this week, and if both Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall miss this game I recommend going to Davone Bess in standard scoring leagues also. I have Chad Henne as my #10 quarterback for the week behind Donovan McNabb and ahead of Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Cassel because of how much Miami has thrown.

Minnesota Vikings – Even if Brett Favre plays this week you want no part of him. He’s very hurt and has been ineffective the whole season (-1.5 pass rating) and there’s no logical reason to believe he’ll be better with multiple fractures in his ankle. Meanwhile, if Tavaris Jackson plays, I like Randy Moss and Percy Harvin more than if Favre was at quarterback. In the last three games with Favre, Moss has caught just 12 of 23 targets while Harvin has converted 13 of his 22 targets into catches. Both those catch rates (52.17% for Moss and 59.09% for Harvin) are below their catch rates from last year and I think some of that has to do with Favre’s performance. Adrian Peterson doesn’t need to be discussed – he’s a must-start.

New Orleans Saints – I said last week that Marques Colston would get touchdowns at some point, and he did against the Browns. Cleveland actually has ranked as PFF’s #1 defense in the league through eight weeks, so it’s not surprising to see the Saints offense, specifically Drew Brees and the running game, struggle. I do not like any Saints running back against the Steelers defense in week 8 and would rather play Justin Forsett, Mike Hart and Marion Barber than Chris Ivory or Ladell Betts. It’s a tough match-up for Drew Brees as well, but I cannot imagine you have another quarterback on your team you would rather start unless you drafted Ben Roethlisberger late or picked up Kyle Orton and haven’t managed to trade them yet.

New York Giants – The way that Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith are being targeted (25.6% and 23.4%, respectively) they are both top-15 wide receivers. I like Nicks as a top-5 option because of the way Eli Manning looks for him in the red zone and Smith falls in ahead of Mike Wallace, Desean Jackson, Marques Colston, Brandon Lloyd and Larry Fitzgerald as my #12 receiver for the rest of the season. Ahmad Bradshaw is the NFL’s leading rusher and might be the best running back in fantasy if Brandon Jacobs wasn’t stealing touchdowns inside the five. I would like Manning a lot more if he didn’t have more turnovers than touchdowns (14 touchdowns – 15 turnovers), even though they’re not all his fault.

New York Jets – I said it last week, but I would cut bait on Shonn Greene if you don’t own Ladanian Tomilinson. His workload has been decreasing and he doesn’t get goal line carries. You might be able to trade him to someone who is still tying his value to his draft position, but if you can’t I don’t think he’s worth a roster spot. Against a depleted Green Bay defense I think Mark Sanchez is worth a start and Dustin Keller should have a nice game also; he’s a top tight end for the rest of the year because he’s been targeted on 22.3% of the pass plays he’s been a part of. I’d rather start Braylon Edwards over Santonio Holmes because in the two games they’ve played together Holmes has played in less than 50% of the team’s total offensive snaps.

Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden ran wild against the Broncos last week, scoring four times in the process of accumulating 196 yards from scrimmage. I think the best news though, for McFadden owners, is that two of his touchdowns came on runs inside the five-yard line. Michael Bush played in just 33% of the offensive plays for Oakland, but still managed a solid fantasy day (52 rush yards and a score); I would try and trade him seeing that McFadden got those two scores inside the five. Zach Miller is the only member of the Oakland pass game you want as he has been the second best pass catching tight end this season (5.7 pass rating and 455 yards receiving) and the other receivers in Oakland have been inconsistent. With all that said,  I’m not expecting big weeks from any of the three Raiders mentioned above and would avoid starting Bush against Seattle, a top defense this year (77.8 overall defense rating).

Philadelphia Eagles – I’m not panicking on Brett Celek like some people are, but I also never saw him as a top-flight fantasy tight end. Through the first seven games of the season Celek has no games with more than 50 yards receiving and there hasn’t been much of a difference when Mike Vick or Kevin Kolb has played. Despite that, Celek had a similar stretch of games last year from weeks six – 13 when he posted the following yardage totals: 6, 61, 39, 47, 35, 33 and 16. The big difference in the two years is that Celek caught four touchdowns last year in that span compared to two in 2010. It probably won’t cost you much to get him in a trade and he’d make a fine replacement if you lost Jermichael Finley or Dallas Clark. I still like Lesean McCoy despite two weak rushing performances because he caught 10 passes for 75 yards combined in those two contests, which helps to salvage low rush yardage totals or a lack of touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers – If you own Mike Wallace I highly recommend trading him. He has just 25 targets in six games and no more than three catches in any contest this season. Wallace’s three touchdowns make his statistics and fantasy games look nice, but without the long scores he’s a hole in your lineup. Hines Ward, on the other hand, is my #11 wide receiver for the rest of the year and #7 this week against the Saints. Ward has 35 targets, 24 of which he has caught, and as many touchdowns as Wallace. The Steelers offensive line has been awful this year (-49.8 run block) and for that reason I’m worried about Rashard Mendenhall despite his five rushing touchdowns; he’s had four games with less than 3.5 YPC and has been targeted just 10 times in the pass game all season (compare that to McCoy who had 10 catches in the last two weeks). Ben Roethlisberger has been really good since returning from suspension and is my #4 ranked quarterback this week against a week Saints pass rush (-23.9 pass rush rating, last in the league).

St. Louis Rams – Steven Jackson’s finger surgery on Monday has kept him out of practice but all indications are that he will play on Sunday, and thus if you own him you should start him. If I had to recommend a St. Louis receiving target (either wide receiver or tight end) it would be Danny Amendola. He has been targeted 55 times and has a catch rate of 70.9% on the season. Amendola’s yardage numbers this year (67, 39, 56, 46, 95, 19 and 29) are not spectacular by any means, but he has the best chance to have a positive significant impact on your fantasy roster each week. Other options such as Danario Alexander and tight end Michael Hoomanahui (this week’s hot name) are not on the field enough to make an impact or be trusted. Alexander ran 12 pass patterns (one catch!) in week 7 while Hoomanahui was targeted four times on nine pass routes. Sam Bradford should only be started in two quarterback leagues or in leagues with 14 or more teams; he ranks as my 19th quarterback for the week.

San Diego Chargers: Do not overreact to Ryan Mathews’ performance (or lack there of) in week 7. Yes, I know he had eight carries for 15 yards, was in on just 27% of San Diego’s offensive snaps and did not receive the goal line carry…wait, where am I going with this? Oh yeah, you cannot overreact to one week. San Diego was down big in the second half and went exclusively to the pass game, where Darren Sproles excels. I can understand if you are frustrated with his lack of production, but he did the lead team in rushes against New England despite his low snap count. When there is balance in San Diego, Mathews is going to get the majority of the rushes and that’s worth something on one of the top offenses in the league. I would try and buy low on Mathews, offering a player like Brandon Jackson or Brandon Jacobs for him. If Malcolm Floyd is out until week 11, as has been reported, you should roll out Patrick Crayton as a flex play. Crayton did post a negative pass rating in week 7 (-1.2) because he dropped two balls, but he has been targeted 20 times in the last two games and there’s a lot of value in that when Philip Rivers is your quarterback. Rivers is my #2 quarterback this week so you’re starting him and Antonio Gates, the best fantasy tight end every week.

San Francisco 49ers – With Troy Smith making the start in London for San Francisco this week I actually really like Vernon Davis. This may be confirmation bias, but it seems that mobile quarterbacks with little experience use their tight ends a lot. Davis is my #2 tight end for the week. Other than that, Frank Gore is a must start because he can score you fantasy points in so many ways regardless of how effective he is as a runner (1.3 pass rating, two receiving touchdowns). Michael Crabtree is not a top-25 option at wide receiver with Troy Smith throwing the ball to him; I know I promoted him last week but he hasn’t been elite all year and there’s no reason to think he will be with Smith at quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks – Mike Williams has been targeted at an amazing rate the last two weeks, (31 times, 42.4% of his pass plays) and has delivered with 21 catches, 210 yards and a touchdown, making him one of the best wide receivers in the league according to PFF (4.8 pass rating). It’s not reasonable to expect this type of production every week but it’s clear that Williams is the number one target for Matt Hasselbeck. Justin Forsett played less in week 7 than he did in week 6 (53% – 35%), but still totaled 72 yards from scrimmage on 11 touches. Marshawn Lynch, comparably, played much more (63% of plays and 27 touches), but had just 27 more yards than Forsett. Yes, Lynch is definitely the better fantasy back because he’s more likely to score and get goal line carries, but Forsett is not useless in his current role. John Carlson was Hasselbeck’s favorite target before the bye, but has been targeted just seven times for three catches and 24 yards in the two weeks since; he’s fine for a one week fill in at tight end, but is not worth keeping long term.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – LeGarrette Blount totaled 72 yards on 11 carries in week 8 to lead the Buccaneers. It was a nice effort, but the Tampa Bay offensive line is still among the worst run blocking units in the league (-39.5 run block rating) meaning that Blount probably won’t match that level of production in most weeks. Plus, with word out of Tampa Bay being that they plan to use both Cadillac Williams and Blount in the offense there’s no guarantee he sees more rushes in the coming weeks. As a result, I’d hold off using either back against Arizona unless each of your top three or four running backs are out on bye this week – I’d rather play Danny Woodhead, for example. I still like Mike Williams as a #2 wide receiver or flex play and Josh Freeman could start in 12-team leagues or more this week.

Tennessee Titans – I refuse to overreact to Kenny Britt’s big day in week 7. He has been good this year, scoring touchdowns in five of the six games he has played, but aside from this past week he has only topped 45 yards receiving once (week 5 against Dallas). Britt is not a top-20 receiver for the rest of the season, in my opinion, and I would suggest trading him for a different wide receiver that you can count on week-to-week that may be undervalued right now, like Steve Smith (NYG or CAR), Brandon Lloyd, or Wes Welker. Other than that, the fantasy advice for the Titans is bland; start Chris Johnson and no one else.

Washington Redskins – Donovan McNabb, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley have a nice match-up against the Detroit Lions this week and I even recommend Anthony Armstrong if you have a void because of all the byes this week. Armstrong started last week against the Bears and with Joey Galloway seeing less of the field (75%, 59%, 39% of Washington’s offensive plays in the last three weeks, respectively) in recent weeks look for Armstrong to see plenty of deep targets. Ryan Torain is another nice start against a below average Lions run defense (-5.3), but you were probably going to use him anyway.

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