When the year started, you could have gotten even odds that Miles Austin would lose his WR1 status in Dallas, but if you foresaw him losing it to Laurent Robinson . . . well then your name isn’t Norv Turner. (In fairness to Turner, Robinson would probably also look good lining up across from Brandon Lloyd right now in St. Louis.)
Robinson's touchdowns may be fluky – although Romo's astronomical career TD% offers a counterargument for that premise – but his overall numbers are not. Robinson was targeted on 40% of his routes Sunday, raising his yearly rate to 24%. That compares favorably to Austin (23%) and leaves him well ahead of Dez Bryant (20%). His impressive 2.25 yards per pass route also gives him a sizable edge over Austin (2.08) and Bryant (1.89). Robinson's success may owe a lot to the attention paid Bryant, Witten, and Murray, but it has been spectacular nonetheless.
Simple Targets
The weekly target breakdown by team features players with double digit looks in bold. Full season numbers are in parentheses.
ARI – Larry Fitzgerald 8 (97), Andre Roberts 4 (53), Early Doucet 1 (60)
ATL – Roddy White 12 (111), Harry Douglas 5 (51)
BAL – Anquan Boldin 7 (89), Torrey Smith 3 (58), Lee Evans 1 (11)
BUF – Steve Johnson 13 (90), David Nelson 8 (66), Brad Smith 7 (18)
CAR – Steve Smith 7 (98), Brandon LaFell 6 (37), Legedu Naanee 4 (62)
CHI – Johnny Knox 9 (50), Roy Williams 4 (38), Earl Bennett 3 (26)
CIN – A.J. Green 4 (70), Jerome Simpson 4 (72), Andre Hawkins 3 (22), Andre Caldwell 3 (60)
CLE – Greg Little 12 (82), Jordan Norwood 5 (19), Josh Cribbs 4 (46), Mohamed Massaquoi 2 (40)
DAL – Laurent Robinson 13 (60), Dez Bryant 6 (64)
DEN – Eric Decker 5 (71), Matt Willis 2 (21), Eddie Royal 2 (34), Demaryius Thomas 1 (21)
DET – Calvin Johnson 8 (105), Nate Burleson 7 (66), Titus Young 3 (49)
GB – Greg Jennings 5 (79), Jordy Nelson 5 (57), James Jones 4 (34), Randall Cobb 4 (21), Donald Driver 2 (34)
HOU – Andre Johnson 3 (37), Kevin Walter 2 (37), Jacoby Jones 1 (40)
IND – Austin Collie 8 (60), Pierre Garcon 7 (83), Reggie Wayne 6 (82)
JAX – Jarett Dillard 5 (20), Jason Hill 4 (53), Mike Thomas 4 (70), Cecil Shorts 3 (10)
KC – Dwayne Bowe 10 (90), Steve Breaston 9 (66), Jonathan Baldwin 2 (30)
MIA – Brandon Marshall 9 (99), Brian Hartline 5 (44), Davone Bess 4 (59)
MIN – Percy Harvin 6 (58), Devin Aromashodu 5 (36), Michael Jenkins 4 (54)
NE – Wes Welker 12 (111), Deion Branch 10 (70)
NO – Lance Moore 7 (53), Devery Henderson 6 (36), Marques Colston 6 (62)
NYG – Hakeem Nicks 13 (83), Victor Cruz 12 (80), Ramses Barden 4 (10)
NYJ – Santonio Holmes 9 (71), Plaxico Burress 7 (70), Patrick Turner 4 (10)
OAK – Darrius Heyward-Bey 9 (60), Chaz Schilens 8 (21), Louis Murphy 4 (12)
PHI – Jason Avant 14 (63), DeSean Jackson 9 (68), Riley Cooper 5 (19), Chad Hall 4 (4)
PIT – Antonio Brown 6 (82), Mike Wallace 5 (80), Hines Ward 4 (42), Emmanuel Sanders 4 (37)
SD – Vincent Brown 9 (31), Vincent Jackson 3 (79), Patrick Crayton 2 (23)
SEA – Doug Baldwin 8 (61), Ben Obomanu 4 (42), Golden Tate 3 (25), Mike Williams 2 (29), Sidney Rice 2 (56)
SF – Michael Crabtree 8 (71), Ted Ginn 3 (21), Braylon Edwards 2 (28)
STL – Brandon Lloyd 10 (69), Brandon Gibson 7 (53), Austin Pettis 4 (24)
TB – Mike Williams 10 (93), Arrelious Benn 5 (43), Preston Parker 3 (44)
TEN – Lavelle Hawkins 7 (50), Damian Williams 4 (57), Nate Washington 4 (71)
WAS – Jabar Gaffney 7 (73), Santana Moss 7 (49), Donte Stallworth 2 (15), Anthony Armstrong 1 (21)
Pass Routes Run
Route numbers were down slightly in Week 12. Victor Cruz has been dominating Advanced Targets this season, so it’s no surprise that he’d explode for 30-plus fantasy points on a day when he led the league in routes (49).
Many of the Week 12 leaders were bolstered by playing a significant portion of their games in comeback mode, but extreme deep leaguers will note that Brad Smith recorded 42 routes in a game the Bills mostly led. Surprisingly, that was two more than Steve Johnson. Considering his athleticism and the absurd salary Buffalo handed him in the offseason, the Bills probably should have considered him for this type of role earlier in the season.
Rookies Greg Little (39) and A.J. Green (38) also found themselves near the top of the leaderboard in a tightly contested, drizzle-coated affair. Although Little recorded a season’s worth of drops in that game, both players will be a fixture in fantasy circles for years to come. Green should be a WR1 down the stretch. Little makes a sneaky WR3 play.
Owners of the other high profile rookie WR may need to be talked down from the ledge this week, especially if Julio Jones’ bagel helped knock them out of playoff consideration. While slim consolation, it’s worth noting that he actually ran one more route than Roddy White, edging him 36-35. Such a route distribution almost forces owners to play him again next week.
Targets Per Route
Last week I mentioned how the peripherals for Jason Avant and James Jones had fallen to the point where they were no longer fantasy viable. They both lit up the box score in Week 12, but Avant makes the better desperation play going forward. Among receivers with double digit routes, he logged the highest target rate at 41%.
Doug Baldwin (40%) continues to see a high percentage of the targets in a passing game that insists on deploying Ben Obomanu and Mike Williams far too often. Baldwin is now at 25% for the year, easily the best among Seahawks wide receivers.
Vincent Jackson continued his roller coaster season as Champ Bailey limited him to an 8% target rate. Unlike A.J. Green (11%) who saw his targets held in check by Joe Haden, VJax wasn’t able to turn his few chances into fantasy gold.
Pass Routes Per Snap
Dwayne Bowe (47%), Anquan Boldin (43%), and Steve Smith (43%) were among the big names who found themselves mired in a run-heavy approach last week. Boldin and Smith have been among the league leaders in routes this season and should bounce back. Bowe could represent a very undervalued commodity in 2012 drafts assuming the Chiefs hire a new head coach – preferably one who doesn’t believe low variance strategies are the best way for an underdog to win – and draft a potential franchise QB. If you’re reading this Mr. Pioli, Chiefs fans are already dreaming about RGIII.
Jordy Nelson Red Flag Award
Lance Moore rewarded risk-taking owners Monday night with a line of 5 receptions for 54 yards and 2 TDs. His 22-point effort marked the third time this season Moore has eclipsed 20 points. Moore has essentially taken the risk/reward inherent in Jordy Nelson's profile and supersized it. On the season, he's only played in 44% of the team snaps. You might be hoping the numbers are trending positively, but Week 12 actually represented his lowest snap percentage of the season (34.2%). The Saints do their best to make up for that by using him almost exclusively on passing plays. Only Lavelle Hawkins, Preston Parker, and Dezmon Briscoe have posted higher route per snap rates than Moore’s 76%. Unfortunately, Moore isn’t nearly as efficient as Nelson on a per route basis (3.1 yards per route to 1.8).
Yards Per Route
As we head into December, the Vikings usage of Percy Harvin suddenly seems less and less like it comes from reading a Todd Haley how-to manual. While many of us would still like to see what he could do as a traditional WR, Minnesota has started get him the ball in a highly efficient fashion. His 4.35 yards per route trailed only Johnny Knox (4.39) among WRs with at least 20 routes.
Antonio Brown (3.5) and Wes Welker (3.5) both continued highly successful seasons, while Reggie Wayne (3.9) and Roddy White (3.1) assuaged their owners’ frustrations at least temporarily.
Early Doucet (0.88), Andre Johnson (0.79) and Earl Bennett (0.15) demonstrated the difficulty in performing with a backup under center. Santonio Holmes (0.65) scored a TD but otherwise continued to show he believes Mark Sanchez belongs in a similar capacity.
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