Draft grades? Those matter little in the fantasy realm. We break down the fantasy impact of each team’s draft in this series.
IDP analysis also written by Nate Jahnke.
Chicago Bears
Shea McClellin — DE
Over the last year and a half, we have watched the decline of Israel Igonije as a pass rusher. As a rookie he should be able to make the field on third downs. However Idonije stepped up big time in run defense for the second half of the season and Peppers has played well in run defense as well. McClellin will have to earn his snaps on run downs.
Alshon Jeffery – WR
The Bears receiving core was a mess in 2011, and the Bears have looked to get taller at receiver first with the addition of Brandon Marshall and then picking Jeffery. He had 23 receiving touchdowns in three years of college, and at his size could be a red zone target in 2012. He should be able to win a starting job and be the second most productive receiver in Chicago. He is worth a late round pick if you carry six or more receivers on your roster.
Brandon Hardin – S
The Bears are one of the few teams that will rotate players in and out at safety if they have players healthy, and in the past two years have shown they aren’t afraid to play rookie third round safeties. Due to the lack of playing time in Chicago, it makes any Bears safety hard to rely on and you should stay away from in fantasy unless your league is that deep.
Evan Rodriguez – FB
The Bears typically use two tight end formations rather than ones with a fullback. Their fullback last year Tyler Clutts had no runs and eight catches last year. Even if Rodriguez can win the starting job, he won’t see many more touches than that
Isaiah Frey and Greg McCoy– CB
The two late route cornerbacks are unlikely to see the field with Tim Jennins and Charles Tillman starting, DJ Moore in the slot, and Kevin Hayden and Jonathan Wilhite also competing for playing time.
Detroit Lions
Ryan Broyles – WR
Nate Burleson has been underwhelming as the Lions slot receiver in three wide sets, with nine dropped passes. The Lions have said they view Broyles as a faster version of Wes Welker, so chances are Broyles has a real shot of taking over the slot duties with Calvin Johnson and Titus Young taking the snaps out wide. He is rehabbing from a torn ACL, so it might take some time before he has a true chance to find the field with the offense. For now he isn’t worth being drafted in redraft leagues, but is certainly worth a look in dynasty leagues.
Dwight Bentley – CB
Thanks to the lack of depth on the Lions cornerback position, Bentley has a real shot of starting from day one across from Chris Houston. He is a smaller cornerback, and might struggle to help make tackles in the run game to hurt his fantasy value. However he could also get thrown at a lot, and make tackles after he allows a catch.
Ronnell Lewis – DE
With Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young, it will be difficult for Lewis to see much playing time unless there is an injury.
Tahir Whitehead – OLB
It’s very unlikely for Whitehead to win a starting job, so the only way he will see the field is if there is an injury. Even then, it will likely only be in the base defense, as the Lions go with a 4-2-5 nickel defense with the best two linebackers in.
Chris Greenwood and Jonte Green– CB
With Chris Houston, Aaron Berry and Dwight Bentley likely taking the top three corner spots, it’s unlikely either of these late round picks will see the field unless there is an injury.
Travis Lewis – OLB
It will be hard for their fifth round pick Whitehead to see the field, hence it should be even more difficult for Lewis to.
Green Bay Packers
Nick Perry – OLB
He has a chance to be an every down linebacker across from Clay Matthews. He will likely make a number of sacks, but might not make many tackles otherwise. In IDP leagues that distinguish between OLB and MLB, he would be worth a look, but in leagues that don’t, he won’t be that valuable.
Jerel Worthy – DE
He should find time on the field, especially early in the season with Mike Neal and Anthony Hargrove suspended. Because of how often the Packers use 2-4-5 defenses and rotate players who aren’t B.J. Raji in and out, the defensive ends of Green Bay have little value.
Casey Hayward – CB
With Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, Sam Shields and Jarrett Bush on the roster, it might take a little bit of time for Hayward to see the field. Once he does, Packers cornerbacks have been valuable in fantasy leagues. Until he does, he is not worth a look.
Mike Daniels – DE
Like Worthy, it will be hard for Daniels to make much of a fantasy impact.
Jeron McMillian – S
Due to the release of Nick Collins, there is a chance McMillian could see the field sooner rather than later if he can beat Charlie Peprah for the starting role. Both Packers safeties were in the top 10 in terms of combined solo and assisted tackles in 2012, so if he can win the starting job he should be given a look.
Terrell Manning – OLB
The Packers have Matthews and Perry as the projected starters, followed by Brad Jones, Erik Walden, Frank Zombo, Vic So’oto and Jamari Lattimore fighting for playing time at outside linebacker. It will be difficult for Manning to find playing time with all of that competition.
B.J. Coleman – QB
Aaron Rodgers has a history of concussions and the Packers have one of the best receiving groups in the league if not the best. If Rodgers were to get hurt, and Coleman can beat out Graham Harrell as the backup quarterback, Coleman would become a fantasy option. Worth drafting if the league is deep enough.
Minnesota Vikings
Harrison Smith – S
Smith should be an every down player from day one on. While neither of the Vikings safeties played too well on fantasy rosters last year, Smith should be better than they were. He is worth a DB4 selection until he can prove himself and we can see exactly how the Vikings use him.
Josh Robinson – CB
While the Vikings secondary was a problem area in 2011, they are bringing back Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, added free agents Chris Carr and Zackary Bowman, as well as Asher Allen remaining on the roster. Robinson will have to beat out a few people to be fantasy relevant in 2012. Due to the age of Winfield and Carr, Robinson is more likely to make an impact in future years.
Jarius Wright and Greg Childs– WR
Currently the top four receivers in Minnesota are Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu. While it is certainly possible that one of these fourth round picks can pass players on the depth chart and see some playing time, it’s hard to assume one of them will or which one, making both players not draftable at this moment.
Rhett Ellison – FB
The Vikings like using their tight ends and fullbacks somewhat interchangeably. However they are just used as receivers and blockers, but not runners. Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson will see most of the targets, while Ellison will fight for time with Jerome Felton and Ryan D’Imperio for playing time.
Robert Blanton – S
While it’s rare to predict a fifth round pick will start day one, this is one of the rare cases where a fifth round pick can be penciled in as the starter. However he will still need to win the job, so keep an eye out before taking a pick on Blanton.
Blair Walsh – K
After the release of Ryan Longwell, it looks like Walsh will be the full time kicker in Minnesota. Because of the poor Minnesota offense, you probably don’t want to pick Walsh in your fantasy draft, but will be worth picking up in games where the Vikings are at home or against weak defenses.
Audie Cole – MLB
In order for Cole to see any playing time, he will need to beat out both Jasper Brinkley and free agent pick up Marvin Mitchell on the depth chart.
Trevor Guyton – DT
The Vikings typically use Brian Robison, Kevin Williams and Jared Allen on the majority of snaps, but when some of them are out Guyton should have a chance to see the field. This will only be as a rotational player this year with few snaps.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_NateJahnke
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