• Chargers-Cardinals SGP — Keenan Allen 125+ receiving yards, Allen anytime TD, LAC money line: Nearly a third of Justin Herbert's attempts vs blitz to Allen, NFL's third-highest rate; Arizona blitzes at third-highest rate.
• Packers-Eagles SGP — Allen Lazard 100+ receiving yards, Lazard anytime TD, Aaron Rodgers 250+ pass yards: 8th in PFF defensive grade vs man, Lazard is easily Rodgers' top target in this coverage, which Eagles use at a top-10 rate.
• Lazard earns a target on 27% of his snaps vs man and ranks fifth in the NFL in total deep targets.
Last updated: Nov. 27, 8:45 a.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
While same game parlays (SGPs) are big money makers for the sportsbooks, that does not mean betting edges don't exist. SGPs offer two unique opportunities unavailable in other markets: they uniquely tell a story that we can create through props, spreads, and totals; and (2) SGPs allow us to combine outcomes that are correlated through a particular game angle, but will not be priced into the odds set by books.
The goal in this space is to hit on SGPs that either tell unique stories about games and/or uncover correlated outcomes available only in the SGP market.
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
Story: Taylor Heincke Leans on Terry Mclaurin in big passing day
• With Taylor Heincke at QB, Terry McLaurin has seen the lion's share of the work, receiving one-third of the targets and more than half the Commanders' intended air yards.
• While Mclaurin has been receiving elite volume, he has yet to really pop for a big day, and he now finds himself towards the top of Josh Hermsmeyer's Buy-Low list as a result.
• If there were ever a week for McLaurin to pop with Heincke, a matchup against the Falcons is the spot. The Falcons have allowed the 3rd-highest explosive play rate and a bottom-5 pass EPA.
FanDuel SGP build (+2452)
• Terry McLaurin 125+ Yards RECEIVING
• Taylor Heinicke 250+ Yards Passing
• Terry McLaurin TD
Story: Justin Herbert looks Keenan Allen’s way often to defeat blitz en route to Chargers' win
• Only the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers have blitzed more than the Cardinals, who have blitzed on 41% of plays.
• And when blitzed, Justin Herbert has looked Keenan Allen’s way nearly a third of the time, the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.
• Naturally, Allen has been one of the best NFL's best receivers when Herbert has looked his way against the blitz. Still without Mike Williams, Herbert's Chargers will manage by finding Allen often against the blitz-happy Cards.
FanDuel SGP build (+1564)
• Keenan Allen 125+ Yards Receiving
• Keenan Allen TD
• Los Angeles Chargers money line
Story: Aaron Rodgers continues learning on Allen Lazard vs blitz
• Philadelphia plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, and as we studied at PFF this summer, in man coverage, predicting the targeted player is far more predictable than in zone.
• Allen Lazard has been Rodgers' favorite target by a mile in man coverage, earning a target on 27% of snaps. Lazard is 9th in the NFL with his 85 PFF Grade against man.
• To further bolster his case, Lazard is 5th in the NFL in Deep Targets, and all it takes is one long reception on the inevitable deep targets he will receive to get us most of the way to our props.
FanDuel SGP build (+1978)
• Allen Lazard 100+ Yards Receiving
• Allen Lazard TD
• Aaron Rodgers 250+ Yards Passing