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NFL Betting 2022: Week 14 spread picks to bet before lines move

Santa Clara, California, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

• Take the Miami Dolphins (-2.5): The Dolphins will feast on a leaky Los Angeles Chargers offensive line, let alone attack them through the air with their potent passing game.

• Bet the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5), Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) in a teaser: Take the Chiefs to cover against the Broncos and the Ravens to do so against the Steelers.

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 mins

Editor's Note: Betting lines are accurate as of post-Sunday Night Football.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Why to bet:

The 49ers, Miami's Week 13 opponent, matched up perfectly with the Dolphins. It was well documented heading into the contest how San Francisco is the most successful team at stopping throws over the middle and how that was the crux of the Dolphins' offensive production this year. The result shouldn’t be that surprising, especially since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had one of the worst games of his season, and yet the Dolphins were still only down six in the fourth quarter with a chance to tie or take the lead.

The Chargers' point differential is worse than that of the Panthers and Falcons — poor company to be in. For a team with odds as high as third-best to win the AFC, they’ve been a major disappointment. Despite the money spent in the offseason on defense, they currently rank 27th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. They cannot stop the run, and they cannot stop the pass. They also rank top five in missed tackle rate and are now facing an offense with two of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL. 

The Chargers' offensive line has been a major weakness this year, and if Corey Linsley doesn’t play, the Dolphins' pass rush will get to tee off on quarterback Justin Herbert all game. The Chargers have no run game to lean on, and their wide receivers consistently struggle to generate separation. They just put up 13 offensive points on the Raiders, a defense that currently ranks dead last in EPA per pass allowed.

Why to be wary:

The only reason to be wary is Justin Herbert. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and can put on a show on primetime, as he’s done before. But the Dolphins' offensive firepower combined with the Chargers' offensive inconsistencies might be too much for Los Angeles to handle in Week 14.


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