Prop betting season is upon us at PFF.
We are releasing daily articles that highlight not only the best bets to make but also the framework for how to evaluate those bets on your own. Previous articles have focused on passing yardage and interception props. This piece returns to the discrete number categories, specifically passing touchdown props.
We will use a similar methodology to what PFF's Eric Eager did in his article evaluating interceptions at the game level. The stats used throughout this piece have prediction value at both the season-long and week-to-week timeframe for prop bets.
The first step to determine what matters when predicting passing touchdowns is to establish the base rate, whether it's a season-long or week-to-week prop. This is done by using prior touchdown rates to try to predict future touchdown rates.
Taking touchdowns per dropback is the best way to define touchdown rates. Some dropbacks can result in a passing attempt not happening, which is usually controlled by the quarterback. Using dropbacks offers a more reasonable approximation for quarterbacks who tend to hang onto the ball too long or are apt to scramble when the right situation arises. Incorporating this idea into our touchdown rate is the best initial way to define our base rate.