Premium Content Sign Up

Best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 8

London, England, United Kingdom; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) is defended by New York Jets defensive back Sharrod Neasman (35) in the second half during an NFL International Series aame at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The Falcons defeated the Jets 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach. 

If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at a most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.

We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.

Mispriced scenarios should be mispriced even worse further downstream as errors compound. Or, if the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.

Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings

We found another long-shot winner in Week 7, hitting a 2.2x payout on an Atlanta Falcons moneyline (ML) parlayed with the over on the first-half point total. Despite my 6-10 written plays record this season, the plus-price targets have paid off from a units won perspective, as we are up +3.85 units to start the season. Using these approaches, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 8.

Related content for you: NFL Week 8 Odds and Best Bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri


PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.

Another week, another Falcons writeup in this column. These two NFC South teams have gone in completely opposite directions since the start of the season. Carolina’s defense was once thought of as the best unit in the NFL, but it has regressed quickly over the past four weeks. The Panthers still blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL but haven't generated much pressure when sending an extra defender.

Atlanta’s offense has finally found its rhythm, as Kyle Pitts is looking like the matchup nightmare that most projected him to be coming out of college. Arthur Smith’s scheme should continue to find creative ways to force single coverage on the rookie tight end, making this Falcons offense one of the better units in the NFL. Atlanta's offense is currently eighth in PFF’s opponent-adjusted rankings. Calvin Ridley‘s return to form could easily vault the Falcons offense into the top five, as Atlanta is becoming a darkhorse playoff contender in the NFC.


Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with


Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit