Late-week betting action isn’t the best approach if long-term profitability is the goal. Game spreads and totals become increasingly sharp closer to kickoff, which is why betting game lines early in the week is the best approach.
If betting early in the week isn’t an option, then targeting other markets where lines aren’t stale is key. Beating these markets takes a different approach than those focused solely on the game lines. We can take cues from bookmakers pricing the entire portfolio of offerings on a particular matchup. They arrive at a most likely path the game will travel and then use market dynamics to sharpen the number. In some way, game lines feed derivatives, player props and most other offerings under that matchup umbrella.
We can start by seeing if there are any game lines we disagree with and utilize a couple of different approaches if so.
Mispriced scenarios should be mispriced even worse further downstream as errors compound. Or, if the game line is only subtly off, it's smart to find where its errors are the most drastic.
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We found another long-shot winner in Week 6, hitting a 3x payout on a Las Vegas Raiders moneyline (ML) parlayed with the over on the total points. Despite my 5-9 written plays record this season, the plus price targets have paid off slightly from a units won perspective, as we are +2.65 units to start the season.
Using these approaches, let's find the best last-minute NFL bets ahead of Week 7.
This AFC East matchup has never been all that competitive, but Jets-Patriots should be more even due to both teams sitting in the 20s of PFF's power rankings. The market is siding heavily with the Patriots, who have seen 77% of the cash and 80% of the tickets on the spread. PFF’s greenline model once again likes the Jets, leaning against the public.
With the full-game spread sitting on a key number (Patriots -7), backing the Jets could offer more value on a derivative play. The first half spread sits right above the key number three and looks to be the correct approach if backing the Jets.