The next installment of our Analysis Notebook preview series for Super Bowl XLVI sees us take a look back at this season's first encounter between these two squads, all the way back in Week 9. In a postseason that has been littered with rematches, we're treated to another on the game's grandest stage.
The Giants won on that day and here we'll inspect some of the key plays that not only helped decide that game, but also set a tone for the upcoming title bout–some things both teams need to do and some they need to avoid to ensure that they are the side raising the Lombardi Trophy.
Each team mounted a late charge for victory (both will feature in this article) and if the last two meetings between these two squads are anything to go by, this Super Bowl will be decided in the final quarter, possibly the final minutes. Both offenses finished strong last time around, neither defense made a play in the last two minutes this time around. The offense that had the ball last with a reasonable amount of time to do something with it walked out victorious.
1stQ, 11:34 | 3rd-and-5
The Situation:
The Patriots began their opening drive on their own 5-yard-line, but got out of the shadow of their own goal posts with one 18-yard chunk on a run from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Five yards in two runs from Green-Ellis left the Patriots in 3rd-and-5, needing to target their tight ends for a conversion. In this game, as with the Super Bowl, the Giants had to prevent Aaron Hernandez from converting after the catch and this provided an early opportunity for the Giants to do just that.
Outcome:
On a crossing route, Hernandez is prevented from gaining any yards after the catch and is dropped short of the first down markers by Antrel Rolle.
Why it worked:
The Giants come with a base four-man pass rush and don’t get close to Tom Brady. He has his choice of receivers and it's all on the Giants’ coverage defenders to make a play to stop this manageable conversion for the Patriots’ passing game.
New York has three men in zone coverage underneath and with Danny Woodhead releasing out of the backfield on a swing to the left, Rob Gronkowski releasing into the right flat, and Aaron Hernandez crossing the middle, the Patriots have set out a play that should isolate the zones in single coverage.
However, as Brady releases, Rolle is still close enough to the offense's left slot that he can come down inside and ensure that Michael Boley is not alone with Hernandez. This proves to be important; if Woodhead had drawn Rolle wider, this would have been a comfortable conversion, but as the play pans out, Rolle has a play on Hernandez short of the markers.
It had to be a clean and crisp tackle, though, as the Patriots’ tight end brings in the pass only a yard short of the line needed and, to that point in the season, had forced seven missed tackles in the passing game and was averaging 3 yards after the catch. Rolle makes a strong tackle. He doesn’t wrap up, but his solid contact flips Hernandez to ground as the tight end attempted to cut around him.
This was a key early stop. The theme of both of the Giants’ victories over the Patriots has been the defense controlling the offense early in the game and keeping it close. Though the Giants have the ability to keep pace with the Patriots, that's likely to be key again this Sunday and Antrel Rolle is likely to have a significant role to play in that task. Whether he finds himself in coverage on Hernandez, Wes Welker, or the hobbled Rob Gronkowski, he needs to bring his best form of the season covering from the slot to slow the Patriots’ passing attack and keep the Giants in the game throughout.
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4thQ, 1:40 | 4th-and-9
The Situation:
An eight-play, 50-yard drive would all come down to this final effort with the Patriots in 4th-and-long and needing a touchdown to take the lead. Gronkowski had already been targeted three times in this series (including the last two plays), but had only pulled in one catch for 19 yards. But, in the crunch, who else would Brady go to this season? Gronkowski, of course, and the outcome of the Patriots’ attempt at a game-winning drive would rest on their connection.
Outcome:
Brady finds Gronkowski to the front of the end zone in single coverage with Michael Boley. Gronkowski beats the single coverage on a hitch route for a go-ahead touchdown.
Why it worked:
The key feature of Super Bowl XLII was the Patriots’ inability to block a four-man Giants pass rush, but on this crucial play, the story was the Patriots doing the opposite. The outstanding protection from a full strength Patriot offensive line (less Dan Koppen on injured reserve) allowed Brady and the Patriots' receivers to fully test the Giants’ defensive backs and linebackers in coverage; allowing plays to fully develop.
Brady moved in the pocket as the rush was sent past him and the time allowed Gronkowski to reach the goal line from the right slot, isolated in coverage with Boley. Any linebacker on Gronkowski this season has been a complete mismatch and this was no different. Boley set up to take away inside routes and with no help, he had no defense for Gronkowski pushing his pattern to the outside.
Brady timed his release perfectly as Gronkowski drifted off of Boley’s coverage back to the right hashmarks and located the throw low and away–a spot where the linebacker had no play. Gronkowski hauled in the catch (going to ground to bring it in), and the Patriots had their lead in a now 20-17 ball game, placing all of the pressure back on the Giants to come up with a drive and a play to steal the win.
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4thQ, 0:19 | 3rd-and-Goal from the 1
The Situation:
Starting at their own 20 and needing a field goal to tie or a touchdown to win, the Giants drive 79 yards in 66 seconds, but after two failures, one each by run and pass, they're left with 3rd-and-Goal from the 1. One last chance to get into the end zone for the game-winner.
Outcome:
As with Super Bowl XLII, the Giants make the key play at the end of the game and come up with the victory. Off of play action, Eli Manning lures Tracy White into biting up on the run, getting Jake Ballard open on an out route to the left side of the end zone for the touchdown.
Why it worked:
Play action at the goal-line is deadly, even more so when you’re running a play action fake to a 264lb running back who the defense knows they have to hit early if they are to keep him out from less than a yard away.
Manning never extends the ball to Jacobs for a fake, but just opening his body to Jacobs and his proximity to the back draws the defense up to play the run. Even with an unconvincing pickup from Jacobs on right defensive end Andre Carter, Manning has all the time that he needs to hit this play to the left sideline in the end zone.
White, playing right linebacker, is isolated with Ballard on the play and when he moves to fill the gap that opens for Jacobs–augmenting the play fake–he's left in no position to defend a pass of any quality to the outside. Manning sees the play early and as soon as he starts to turn out of the move to Jacobs, he sees that the pass is on and wastes little time getting the ball out to Ballard.
As with the Giants’ winning pass in their Super Bowl triumph, there is no smoke and mirrors to this play and very little complexity. What it is, though, is brutally efficient execution of a simple concept with the Patriots found wanting in coverage once again.
White has only played four defensive snaps since Week 15, so he is unlikely to be in this situation again, but which Patriots defender will step up to make a late play this Sunday? They may need their defense to come up with something if they are to reverse a recent trend against the Giants.
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