We're back with the Week 1 edition of Akshay's observations! We'll take in-depth looks at the Eagles, Rams, Cowboys and Jets. The Eagles looked solid on most facets of the game, while the Rams struggled on offense. The Cowboys/Jets game was wildly entertaining, and in the end saw the Cowboys choke the game away and come up with a loss. Without further ado, the observations:
-Sam Bradford's line should have been better than it was. I counted 8 dropped passes (PFF's official stats confirm this), and some of them were blatant, wide open, pitch and catch sort of drops. Bradford should have also had a TD or two, as some of those drops were of the redzone variety. Look for the Rams to catch the ball a bit better in the coming weeks. The concern I do have, however, is that Bradford rarely looked down the field; a large part was simply the time he had in the pocket, but as I've said before, his receivers need better separation.
-Speaking of Bradford's line, we'll talk about a different line of his – the offensive line. The pass blocking was plain awful, as evidenced by five Eagles defenders scoring positive PFF rush ratings, while every starting Rams offensive lineman had a negative pass block rating, including a -4.6 for Jason Smith and a -3.4 for Rodger Saffold (the Rams' tackles). This is a concern going forward, but not all defensive lines are as good as the ones the Rams just faced.
-Danny Amendola's injury still has no timetable as of press time, but his loss means other WRs (or even TEs) will have to step up. I think Mike Sims-Walker may benefit most, as he may be deployed from all over the field now, including the slot. He's definitely a guy I'd like to have on my fantasy roster at this point.
-Injuries wreaked havoc on the Rams, and some of them don't look good. Starting CB Ronald Bartell may be done for the year, Amendola had the aforementioned injury, Bradford has nerve damage on his throwing hand, Steven Jackson has a multi-week quad injury, and starting tackle Jason Smith was dinged up as well. Keep an eye on these situations, especially with Bradford playing on Monday Night in Week 2 – a backup option would be wise, or even a safe replacement (just in case).
-Until Lance Kendricks shows something more, you need to bench him. He had two drops on drops targets, and though he may see a target uptick with Amendola out, he's not a guy I'm comfortable with in my starting lineup until we see more consistency.
-Cadillac Williams is a must-add if he's still out there, especially for Steven Jackson owners. He looked fairly quick in his action, and can catch passes as well. He's a short term fix, but very flex-worthy, even against the Giants in Week 2.
-I believe the Eagles are a beatable team. This is obviously easier said than done, but the key to stopping Michael Vick is good pressure. The offensive line isn't anything special (a -6.9 pass block rating on the day), and though Vick is obviously a great scrambler, he can be contained.
-LeSean Mccoy simply has more holes when defenses have to respect Vick. I had him as a top 6 PPR option coming into my drafts, and his performance did nothing to change my opinion. The great thing about backs like McCoy is that even when they don't score a touchdown, the 4-6 catches per week will still give you solid numbers.
-I think the bigger story for the Eagles may be their defensive line, which we heard nothing about since they had such high profile secondary signings. As mentioned earlier, several Eagles d-linemen had really solid pass rush ratings this week, whereas both Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha had negative coverage ratings on the day. I think Asomugha will be just fine, and as DRC was the slot corner yesterday, the defense is looking like it may be worth its top fantasy defense billing.
With those tidbits about the Eagles and Rams, we move onto the Cowboys and Jets.
-I avoided Shonn Greene in all my drafts (in part because I only do PPR), but yesterday's game looked exactly like a 2010 game in terms of backfield touches. Both backs had 11 touches on the night, with LaDainian Tomlinson seeing far more passing game work than Shonn Greene for obvious reasons. The Cowboys defensive line is a decent one, but neither backed looked special to me as a runner.
-I won't touch on this much, but yesterday's game almost seemed like a “who can implode worse” battle between Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez. Tony Romo ended up making two absolutely boneheaded plays that led to two absolutely boneheaded turnovers and won that battle. Turnovers suck in fantasy, but these types of things are morale dampeners, and over the long run, can be season killers in real life.
-You can see why Dez Bryant was a first rounder. When he wasn't cramping up, he was an absolute beast. His catch radius is absurd, and seeing a receiver abuse Darrelle Revis isn't an everyday occurrence.
-Defenses are going to have the same attack plan against the Jets as they did last year: pick on Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, and any DB who doesn't have the jersey number 24. Starting number one WRs on teams facing the Jets may be a risky proposition, but I actually don't mind starting a high-end slot receiver or high-end second receiver on a team against the Jets. Those guys are beatable.
-On the flip side, the Jets pass rush looked much better on Sunday than it did last year. Granted, the Cowboys were starting three new offensive linemen, but the pressure was there after the first drive. If the pass rush is a steady force, the Jets are once again serious AFC contenders.
-Felix Jones had very little to work with, and the touchdown salvaged what would have been a brutal day. However, the story is that he did receive 20 touches, and makes for a great buy-low target in case someone was scared off by his low yardage totals (and yes, I'm aware in good leagues no one's letting him go for cheaper than ADP).
-DeMarco Murray is Jones's handcuff, not Tashard Choice. Though you can't tell from the stat sheet, he was in there on more plays and Choice looked pretty flat. Small sample size, but I want Murray over Choice if given the…choice. (Punny, I know.)
-If the Jets pass 44 times and run 16 times against the great/elite teams of the NFL, they don't have a prayer in the game. I've said it many times and I'll say it again: Mark Sanchez will manage you games. He won't win you games.
-In keeping with the inflated pass attempt theme, don't expect the equitable reception numbers that Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller received to continue. Sanchez averaged just over 31 attempts per game last year and about 17 completions per game last year. Holmes, Burress, Keller, and Tomlinson combined for 21 receptions alone yesterday. You do the math.
-Sean Lee was an absolute beast and should be tracked in all IDP leagues, if not owned in all IDP leagues. 12 tackles, a pass defended and an INT against only 16 rushes against means the guy will be good whether facing run-heavy or pass-heavy teams.
-Last piece: the Dallas secondary is going to be one to pick on when your fantasy QB faces them. With injuries and subpar players abound, Dallas will struggle on each play that DeMarcus Ware doesn't get penetration on.
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