Winning the division is probably out of the question at this point, but the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers still have playoff hopes, however slim. Following their first win (Week 5) and a bye in Week 6, this game is a chance for the Saints to build some much-needed momentum as the schedule gets significantly tougher going forward. The return of interim head coach Joe Vitt and potentially Jonathan Vilma next week could provide an emotional boost, though that boost may be meaningless if New Orleans leaves Tampa without a win. The task looks to be a tough one, with the Buccaneers coming off a dominant victory, but as we pointed out, that may have been more of a testament to the Chiefs' flaws than to the quality of the Buccaneers.
Which team will keep its playoff chances alive and which should start early planning for next year? Here are three matchups that may determine the answer.
Testing Biggers
With Aqib Talib suspended, E.J. Biggers (+3.1) steps into the role of starting cornerback for the Bucs. You would think that this would be a worrying situation, with the team’s best corner being replaced by a player who was PFF’s fourth-worst graded CB in 2011. But if two games are any indication, they'll be just fine. Against Kansas City, Biggers was strong in coverage, allowing two receptions for 19 yards. On the year, the cornerback has given up just three catches on 10 targets, with three pass break-ups, and is allowing 0.5 yards per snap in coverage — the fourth-best mark among all CBs. Quite the improvement for a player whom quarterbacks had a QB rating of 119 when targeting a season ago.
But many players would look good when defending the Brady Quinn-led Chiefs. It’s another matter facing the passing offense of the Saints. And while we have yet to see an entirely sharp Drew Brees and the offensive juggernaut of years past, the team looks to be trending upward after good showings against Green Bay and San Diego. In particular, the Bucs will need to find a way to slow down Marques Colston (+2.6 receiving) who has caught 18 passes for 284 yards and four touchdowns in his past two games. Jimmy Graham likely won’t be much of a factor with a high ankle sprain, so look for Brees to go to his receivers on the outside more often, which is where Biggers has lined up exclusively this season. The Saints get a boost this week with Lance Moore expected to play, while Devery Henderson is coming off his best performance of the season.
Whether Biggers keeps up his impressive play or reverts back to 2011 form may go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. But maybe his 2011 form wouldn’t be such a bad thing for Tampa Bay — his best performance of that year came in Week 6 against the Saints when he intercepted one Brees pass and broke up three more.
Left Side Showdown
When the Bucs take the field on offense, they’ll want to maintain balance and run the ball to keep Brees and a potent Saints offense on the sideline, something former Saint Carl Nicks commented on leading up to the game. The mammoth left guard has been a great addition for Tampa this season and has been their best offensive linemen, evidenced by his +5.6 grade in run blocking. LT Donald Penn has also been solid and is the only one of the six other players to have received snaps on the Bucs’ offensive line that has graded positively in the run game.
Just how good have Nicks and Penn been at paving the way on the ground? The Bucs are averaging 6 yards per carry through the left side A- and B-gaps, and 5.1 overall on runs to the left of center, compared to just 3.3 ypc running to the right side. Rookie Doug Martin has been the primary back thus far, so look for him to get the bulk of the carries on Sunday, though LeGarrette Blount and third-down back Danny Ware have each run well in limited carries.
Tampa’s left side duo will primarily match up against defensive end Will Smith and tackle Brodrick Bunkley, both of whom have played close to 100% of their snaps lined up opposite the offense’s left side. A game after getting swallowed up by 6-foot-8 tackle Jared Gaither, it will be interesting to see how Smith fares against Penn on the outside, though on the season he’s played well against the run and much better than we’ve seen in previous years. At tackle, Bunkley (+6.5 in run defense) has been stout as usual — his 10.4% Run Stop Percentage is fourth among defensive tackles that have played 50% of their teams’ snaps. However, he’ll be surrendering close to 40 pounds to Nicks and has seen his snaps decrease from the beginning of the season — after playing 50 snaps in Week 1, he’s played just 27 combined in Weeks 4 and 5. Akiem Hicks is Bunkley’s usual replacement (92% of his snaps have come at DRT) and has played well, grading at +2.5 against the run. He’s a rookie, though, and his technique will face a thorough examination this week facing a player the caliber of Nicks.
Vincent Jackson vs. Patrick Robinson
Another reason for Tampa Bay to run the ball is to take it out of the hands of Josh Freeman who has been less than impressive this season, completing just over 55% of his passes through five games. When Freeman does throw, he has one of the best receivers in the league at his disposal in Vincent Jackson. Jackson is our fifth-highest rated receiver and his 42 targets are 16 more than any other Bucs receiver, accounting for 32% of Freeman’s aimed passes. In addition to having a 6-foot-5 frame that allows him to take advantage of smaller corners, he’s deceptively explosive — he’s averaging 18.5 yards per catch and only six receivers have more targets further than 20 yards downfield. Most of his work is done in the middle and left side of the field, as he’s been targeted only four times right of the numbers. He lines up slightly more often on the left side, while only 24% of his snaps come from the slot.
Patrick Robinson will likely be the primary defender of the talented Buccaneer, and this season has often matched-up against the opponent’s top receiver for the Saints. The third-year corner has been a mixed bag in terms of performance, as he’s allowed 22 receptions on 37 passes thrown his way, though none longer than 35 yards. He also gets his hands on quite a few passes — he has an interception, and only two corners have more than his six pass defenses. Robinson is solid at limiting receivers after the catch and his two missed tackles are fewer than any Saint DB with at least 70 snaps. However, with an average of just 2.6 YAC per reception and only one forced missed tackle on the season, that’s not exactly an area of strength for Jackson.
That’s good news for the Saints, because they aren’t getting much help from the safeties when receivers do make it into the open field — Malcolm Jenkins is our second-worst rated safety and has the third-most missed tackles of any DB. This will be an interesting matchup to watch as the Bucs will surely look to exploit Jackson’s height advantage against the Saints’ defensive backs, none of whom are taller than 6-foot-1. But for as good as Jackson has been, the Saints can’t forget about Mike Williams. Freeman has a near perfect rating of 140.7 when targeting the Buccaneers’ No. 1 receiver from a year ago.
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