Fresh off a two-game stretch in which they outscored their opponents 54-10, the Bears are riding a tide of momentum into a home matchup with Carolina. The formula is same as it’s always been for Chicago — a stingy defense, with enough offensive firepower to get by. As usual, turnovers are part of the equation too. The Bears lead the NFL with 14 interceptions (five returned for touchdowns), and are tied for second with seven fumble recoveries. They haven’t had the toughest schedule so far, but they’ve made short work of their opposition, winning four games by 16 points or more.
Things were looking up for Carolina this year. Last season Cam Newton looked like the man to turn the franchise around, but the team has regressed greatly in 2012. Now holding the worst record in the NFC, the Panthers playoff hopes have all but disappeared just seven weeks into the season. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that they’ve been competitive in most of their losses — only one of their five losses came by more than six points. The Panthers are desperate, and they could very well pull off the road upset if Chicago tries to look past them.
Bears Offensive Tackles vs. Panthers Edge Rushers
Fresh off a disappointing performance against Dallas in which the defense failed to generate a single hit or sack, the Panthers will look to feast on an offensive line with a less than stellar reputation for protecting Jay Cutler. The most dangerous (and expensive) pass rusher for the Panthers is defensive left end Charles Johnson. Johnson’s Pass Rushing Productivity of 12.0 is good for fifth among 4-3 defensive ends. His 26 quarterback disruptions lead the team but, Greg Hardy isn’t too far back with 18 of his own. And though he’s yet to play more than half of the snaps in any one game, rookie Frank Alexander has a PRP just behind Johnson, at 11.2. He’s gotten pressure on the quarterback in every game this year but one, and in that one he still managed to bat down two passes.
It’s been a rough transition into the NFL for third-year tackle J’Marcus Webb. His Pass Blocking Efficiency was 10th worst (92.9) last year and dead last (90.3) in 2010. However, after a couple of disastrous seasons, Webb looks to have finally turned the corner. His PBE of 94.7 (29th out of 60) is a huge upgrade over what we’ve been used to seeing. It seems though that Gabe Carimi has taken his place as the person most likely to keep Cutler awake at night. Despite some impressive run blocking, Carimi has allowed five or more pressures in four games so far this year, and looks to have his hands full with Johnson. Protecting Cutler should be high on Chicago’s list of priorities — over half of his interceptions this year came in the Week 2 loss to Green Bay where he faced pressure on 60% of his drop-backs.
Panthers Receivers vs. Bears Corners
Long-time starter Steve Smith and sophomore Brandon LaFell have combined for 72.6% of the Panthers’ snaps at wide receiver, but they’ve contributed just two touchdowns. A low touchdown output doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous though. Smith is extremely potent after the catch. He’s averaged 6.0 YAC per reception, and his nine broken tackles are second for wide receivers. Both receivers average an impressive 16 yards per reception. Louis Murphy really needs to get more involved in the offense though. His 0.90 yards per pass route is a terrible return for a team’s third option at receiver.
Lining up across from them will be a pair of corners having stellar years so far. Tim Jennings is tied for the league lead with four interceptions, but Charles Tillman has arguably had the better season. Tillman had an outstanding showing on Monday Night Football against Calvin Johnson, conceding 34 yards on eight targets while breaking up two passes. Opposing quarterbacks have a rating under 45 when targeting this duo. Nickel corner D.J. Moore isn’t far behind them — when covering the slot, he’s given up a QB rating of 57.6.
Carolina’s Running Game
Just a year ago, the Panthers had the third ranked rushing attack, with over 150 yard per game. But an injury that’s kept Jonathan Stewart off the field for much of this season has lowered that number by almost 25%. The adoption of the read-option as their base running attack seems to have only worsened things. Former Charger Mike Tolbert actually leads Carolina’s running backs with 154 snaps on offense. DeAngelo Williams just hasn’t looked the same since his 2008 campaign where he scored 20 total touchdowns. His Elusive Rating (which incorporates broken tackles and yards gained after contact) has decreased in every season since 2008, coming in at a thoroughly pedestrian 17.8 this season. Williams isn’t alone here though. Stewart’s Elusive Rating of 30.3 is also the lowest of his career, having been regularly at the sharp end of the table before this season.
Carolina's ground attack is going to have to improve if the team is to make any headway against a Chicago team that leads the league in rushing defense. The defensive line is a big part of that, and they’ve only missed two tackles all season. Leading the way is Israel Idonije. His Run Stop Percentage of 9.6 puts him in 10th among 4-3 defensive ends. On the inside of the line, Henry Melton excels at taking down runners near the line of scrimmage. Out of 84 qualifying defensive tackles, Melton’s Run Stop Percentage of 11.8 is higher than all but two. If the Panthers want to get something going on the ground, they may have the most success running at Brian Urlacher — he’s had trouble shedding the blocks of offensive linemen this season.
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