Earlier this week, introduced by adjusted value-over-replacement (VORP) calculation as a way to put fantasy performance into proper context. That first installment focused on running backs, and included details on the calculation rationale and methodology.
It isn’t necessary to restate everything from the first article, but these paragraphs will help readers understand exactly the adjustments I made to the traditional VORP calculation.
Everything in my analysis views performance through the weekly lens, so the weekly VORPs are then added up into seasonal stats.
I also filtered out weekly performances with a snap rate (percentage of total offense snaps) is less than 30 percent. This should filter out weeks where players weren’t actually being used.
A Rotoworld study by Frank Dupont calculated better baselines for all the positions, and I used the 12-team, two-RB starter baseline of RB33 in my analysis. I made this the weekly baseline and all VORP calculations are based on how much a running back scored in relation to that baseline.
I’m using that same Rotoworld study as the baseline for wide receivers, the focus of this article. The 12-team, three-WR starter baseline is WR49. My calculations are based on PPR scoring, which also gives a boost to wide receivers relative to other positions.
I layered the wide receiver results (red) on top of the running back scores from the last analysis (blue) to give you perspective on how the positions stack up versus each other. The circle sizes still indicate the number of games included in the analysis for each player.
There are a couple big-picture takeaways before we get into the individual names. You can see that there are many more wide receivers above the 150 total VORP line than running backs (6-to-1), and this was at least partially driven by the relative health of the position. Right after the regular season wrapped up, I visualized how poor early round running back performance had been in 2015 vis-a-vis what we’ve seen the last several years. We can see from this graph that the poor relative performance of running backs was mostly driven by bad injury luck. There are several running backs in the 10-15 VORP per game range that just didn’t play a whole lot, versus their healthy wide receiver peers at the top of the chart.
Let take a look at some of the individual wide receiver names to see who were actually winning weeks for their fantasy teams.
Starting at the top, you can see that Julio Jones and Antonio Brown added more total VORP to their teams than breakout running back Devonta Freeman (he’s the highest blue running back dot). Freeman does have the edge in VORP per game, so a couple more healthy games could have pushed him to the top.
After Jones and Brown, there is a decent gap before Odell Beckham Jr., Brandon Marshall, and DeAndre Hopkins. Everyone was expecting big things from Beckham after he was the league’s most impressive rookie wide receiver since Randy Moss the prior year. You can make a credible claim that either Marshall or Hopkins was the most valuable fantasy pick this year, especially in PPR leagues. Hopkins as an improving 23 year old is a no-brainer top-10 pick next year, but where the soon-to-be 32 year old Marshall goes is more up in the air.
What you’ll also notice about the Beckham/Marshall/Hopkins cohort is that there are a handful of running backs who performed better on a per-game basis, but fell short due to health issues. Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, and Arian Foster would have been top-10 players in total VORP if they could have stayed on the field. Again, don’t be too quick to count out the fantasy running back.
Moving down the trend line we see a healthy Allen Robinson topping 150 total VORP, but Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen actually had higher VORP on a per-game basis. While Allen profiles as more of a possession receiver than Hopkins, both are 23 years old and have had similar career per-game numbers, but Allen should be had at a great discount in redraft and dynasty.
You can see more interesting names in the rest of the graph, but I’ll again focus on those who didn’t play a full season of games and could be undervalued. Steve Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Martavis Bryant, and Sammy Watkins all had great per-game stats, but were negatively affected by injury or suspension. I’m not sure anyone knows the prospects for a 36 year old coming off of an Achilles tear, but Smith has defied odds before. Jeffery and Watkins were all great in stretches this year, and are both logical breakout candidates for 2016. Both receivers were in the top-5 for yards-per-route-run, and were held back more by the lack of passing volume than production.
Below is a table with all the 2015 wide receiver VORP data, including rankings for 2015 ADP, seasonal total PPR points, total VORP, and VORP per game. Look through the data and you’ll find many players where their VORP-based ranking differs significantly from season-long total fantasy points, and then you can identify values and fades.
[table id=1161 /]
Kevin Cole is a Lead Writer for PFF Fantasy. You can follow him on Twitter at @Cole_Kev
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