Throughout the 2012-2013 NFL season, I will be answering some questions that come my way on Twitter in a mailbag. Sometimes, Twitter questions require more than 140 characters to get to the reasoning behind the answer. With Week 8 upon us, let’s take a look at what people are asking:
1) Offered Percy/Ridley for my Wayne/Sproles (no byes for Wayne/Sproles). 2RB/noflex .5PPR Have Spiller/McGahee, do it? Thx – @Megatr0n81
I know Percy and Ridley haven’t experienced their byes yet, which is definitely important to consider when making a trade, but both of those guys would be improvements over Wayne and Sproles.
Of the 146 targets directed at Minnesota wide receivers this season, Harvin has received 75 of them. That’s 51.3 percent, highest among all receivers on their respective teams. Basically, Christian Ponder likes throwing it to Harvin more than any quarterback likes throwing it to any other receiver in the league.
Harvin also has the second most points per snap (PPS) in the PPR leagues at 0.43. He leads all wide receivers in PPR leagues with 0.60 points per opportunity (PPO). He also has the third best drop rate at just 1.64 percent and is tied for first among all receivers with 2.76 yards per pass route. That’s a boatload of stats that point to fantasy goodness. Wayne has been no slouch, but he’s currently exceeding expectations and still isn’t at Harvin’s level.
Even in PPR leagues, where Sproles’ value is much higher, Ridley has outscored him thus far 92-89. In standard leagues that gap widens to 87-57. Ridley has 135 rushes with a 4.4 YPC average. Sproles has just 22 rushes — 22! Ridley carried the ball 21 times in Week 1 alone.
Obviously, Sproles’ value comes from his receptions, where he leads all running backs with 32 of them compared to Ridley’s 6. But again, even with his superior receiving skills in a PPR leagues, Sproles hasn’t matched Ridley in fantasy points.
Take the trade. Percy is more valuable than Wayne. Ridley is more valuable than Sproles. It’s a win-win situation for you.
2) which two of these are set for most week 8 carries/rsh yards: k hunter, j Dwyer, m hardesty, j, Stewart, p Thomas, or p tanner? (sic) – @RealJESSELYNCH
Dwyer and Stewart, unless Trent Richardson sits out this week. For the sake of your fantasy football team, I sincerely hope this isn’t all you have in terms of running backs.
According to Rotoworld, Panthers’ head coach Ron Rivera said Friday, “We want one guy to develop a rhythm and then if he gets hot, ride him.” Stewart is in line to start week 8. Considering that DeAngelo Williams only touched the ball twice last week, Stewart has an excellent chance to become that “one guy” this week.
Stewart only has 35 carries on the season, but he has a respectable 4.1 YPC average. I expect him to have close to 18 carries this week alone, which should net about 80 yards and be good for one score.
Dwyer was very impressive in his week 7 performance while notching a +3.1 PFF grade. He carried the ball 17 times for 122 yards for an average of 7.2 YPC. He didn’t score, but the Redskins have given up five touchdowns to running backs in their last five games. The Steelers have switched to a pass-first team, but that doesn’t mean Dwyer won’t get his. His YPC average will fall this week, but he will score at least one touchdown that will make up for it.
3) .5 Ppr trade my Dez and DMartin for his Julio and BJGE also have forte and Charles need WR bad. – @ARomano1117
Whenever Julio Jones is offered I’m tempted, but after seeing Doug Martin’s performance on Thursday night, I’d say stick with Dez Bryant and Martin. Martin may not have another game quite like that, but it will serve as a confidence booster – both to himself and to the Buccaneers organization.
Additionally, Martin was in for the goal line carries this week. It took the Buccaneers half the season to realize what we all already knew: LeGarrett Blount is not very good. When you factor in Thursday’s game, Martin is currently the fifth highest scoring running back in PPR formats. You simply can’t trade him away from BJGE, even if Julio is in the deal.
Bryant has only scored two touchdowns compared to Jones’ four, but Bryant has more receptions and yards than Jones so far. Bryant was tremendous in back-to-back games against Chicago and Baltimore this season, racking up 28 targets for 21 receptions, 200 yards, and two touchdowns. He had a down game against Carolina — along with everyone else on the field — and I expect him to rebound for the rest of the season. I have Bryant as a high WR2 with WR1 potential down the stretch. The high volume of targets he receives, especially in the redzone, will lead to more touchdowns.
4) Would you trade Marshall for DMC? – @TheycallmeG
In a subsequent tweet, TheycallmeG pointed out that his current wide receivers are Wayne, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, James Jones, and Kenny Britt. His running backs are Ray Rice, Sproles, ad DeMarco Murray. This trade was very dependent on the rest of the fantasy roster.
Our rest-of-season projections have Marshall finishing at the 10th-best receiver and McFadden as the eight best running back. That seems pretty even, but when you consider the depth at wide receiver this year and the lack of depth at running back, McFadden becomes much more valuable.
You can safely trade away Marshall because of the receivers you already own. Wayne has been the fifth highest scoring wide receiver so far this season. J. Jones has been the 13th nd Decker has been the 17th. Down the stretch, both Britt and Maclin will work their way into the top 20. You’re pretty set at wide receiver.
Once DMC gets his act together, which I expect he will, he will pair up with Rice to make a deadly tandem on your fantasy team. In order to make the trade you need to put a little bit of faith in DMC that he hasn’t exactly earned this season. But once he starts scoring touchdowns – which is inevitable as his touchdown rate is below 2 percent right now – the fantasy points will start racking up.
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