Each week in Trench Warfare we will take a look at the RB matchups for the upcoming week based on individual matchups in the trenches and team tendencies. Most matchup articles you will find take into account statistics you can find on NFL.com that rank run defenses based on total rushing yardage given up. In doing so, they neglect important factors. For example, if a team is ahead by multiple scores they are more likely to run the ball and this will inflate the numbers. If a defense squared off agains the two best running teams in weeks 1 and 2, can we really deem them to be a “bad rushing defense” and one to exploit?
At PFF we have the luxury of analyzing premium statistics that are derived from game film. Every player has every snap observed and every player gets a grade. To predict the success of a RB on a given week we can look to tendencies and matchups instead. For example, if I know that Team X has ran constantly off left tackle, behind a left tackle, tight end and left guard who have consistently graded out strongly in run-blocking and is matched up against Team Y who starts a RE and DRT who struggle to defend the run — I know that we can expect Team X to run often off left tackle, and to have a great chance to win those battles the majority of the time.
Unless notified as otherwise, all of the ratings in parenthesis are grades for the year-to-date and not just the past week.
Best Matchup of Week 5
(Last Week's Pick: MJD- who finished with only 18 touches but 80 yards on those)
Marshawn Lynch @ Carolina
The dream matchup that is the Carolina Panthers run defense continued to roll in Week 4. After I spent last week's column dedicating time to say that Michael Turner would reward me with his best game of the season, he rushed for 103 yards on only 13 carries and added 68 yards and a TD through the air. Having the luxury of watching the game on NFL Replay, it was quite obvious that Turner was not all of the sudden the back that put up 1699 yards in 2008. Instead, Turner ran through gaping holes off of Left End, Right End, and Right Tackle where he combined for 77 yards on only 10 carries. On Turner's 27 yard rush off of Left End, he gained an appalling 26 yards before first contact. Carolina's run defense finished with a (-9.3) grade in Week 4 adding to their league-worst (-29.4) for the year.
The Seahawks headed into Week 4 against the Rams run defense in the bottom tier in run-blocking (-18.1). There is reason for optimism however as they graded out (+9.8) this past week and the return of lineman James Carpenter (+1.6) helped bolster that line. Seattle is known for being a much better team at home, but if they can shut down the Panthers offense early Lynch should be in line for a heavy workload against a run defense that can't handle “Beast Mode”. With all of that said, only 11 of 92 runs by Lynch have been off the end this season–The Seahawks would be smart to up that percentage in Week 5.
Lynch is a Top 5 fantasy play this week and should be a sure thing for 15+ points as long as the Seahawks don't fall behind by two scores early on.
Other Matchups to Exploit:
(Featured in Week 4: Michael Turner who finished with 171 total yards on 17 touches and a TD)
Frank Gore vs Buffalo
Just how good has the San Francisco 49ers offensive line been in the run game? Through four weeks, SF has graded out at (+34.7) which is more than DOUBLE the second-best run-blocking Ravens at (+15.9). Four of the five starting linemen, with the exception of RT Anthony Davis (+0.4) have graded out better than (+4.0) for season. But it's not just the five down linemen who make the 49ers rushing attack this dominant. Coach Jim Harbaugh finds unique ways to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground using TE's Delanie Walker (+4.8) and Vernon Davis (+2.9) .
Last week the previously solid Bills run defense was gashed for 243 yards and 38 carries against the New England Patriots. The Pats were most successful running off of left end and right end using their tight ends to block. TE's Daniel Fells (+4.1) and Rob Gronkowski (+4.6) were dominant in run blocking on a total of 65 plays. The Bills gave up 73 yards on only 10 carries off the ends.
This matchup is perfect for the 49ers who also like to use their Tight Ends to run block and who also have two excellent blockers. 24 of 66 carries for Gore this year have been off the ends where he has totaled 149 yards rushing and a 6.2 ypc.
Frank Gore should have multiple scoring opportunities if the 49ers defense shuts down the Bills offense as expected. Their blockers cause serious mis-matches for the Bills especially on the edge. Look for Gore to put up RB1 numbers in Week 5.
(Featured in Week 4: Cedric Benson, who finished with 106 total yards on 22 touches)
Cedric Benson @ Indianapolis
Every week it seems like I am finding myself advising Cedric Benson as a fantasy play. While Benson has been a true workhorse, these suggestions have much more to do with his matchups than anything else. Last week brought New Orleans and now up is the Indianapolis Colts run defense which has graded out as the fourth-worst in 2012 (-19.4). Green Bay has lacked consistent play from their offensive line, but Benson was able to churn out 84 yards and a 4.7 ypc against the first sub-par defense he has faced last week. The only thing missing from his box score was a touchdown. If the Packers offensive line can hold its own against a weak front seven of the Colts then I think this could be the week where Benson breaks loose.
Benson can be safely played as your RB2 against a poor run-defense in a game where the Packers are likely to go ahead early and run the ball often.
Don't Sleep on Reggie Bush
Reggie Bush @ Cincinnati
Playing through and injury against PFF's ninth-best run-defense in Arizona, Bush still managed to compile 67 yards rushing on 17 carries. This week, Bush has already stated that he feels “a lot better” and Dolphins beat writers are saying he looks much better as well. Bush only played 48 snaps in Week 4 and his lack of success should be attributed to that fact. This week, Bush will likely take on a larger role and play more snaps. His matchup is a juicy one against PFF's fifth-worst run-defense, the Bengals (-14.0). The Bengals return CB Leon Hall this week which should also skew Miami's game plan towards the run. This game also has the look of a “trap game” for the 3-1 Bengals. If the Dolphins can pull off the upset, they will have the luxury of running the ball early and often.
Don't make the mistake of benching Bush this week agains the Bengals run defense.
Waiver Wire Desperation Flex Play of the Week Goes to…
(Featured in Week 4: Jacquizz Rodgers who finished with 62 total yards on 10 touches)
Kendall Hunter vs. Buffalo
For all the same reasons stated above for Frank Gore, Hunter should find success once the 49ers go up a few scores and bring Hunter in as the feature back. While they may look to get Jacobs involved, it was clear from last week's game where they dominated the Jets that Hunter is a part of every 49ers game plan. In smaller roster leagues you should be able to find Hunter on the waiver wire.
Matchups To Avoid:
(Featured in Week 4: Darren McFadden, who finished with 34 yards on 13 carries and a four yard catch)
Fred Jackson @ San Francisco
This is the week to avoid Bills running backs in all standard scoring leagues. However, I will not include Spiller in this feature because he is sure to rack up receiving and garbage yards once the Bills fall behind. Last week, Bills LT Cordy Glenn left the game with an injury and is unlikely to play this week which should hurt the consistency of the Bills line for at least this week. But let's be honest here–the reason to bench Jackson is because he's facing the highest-graded run-defense in the league, the 49ers (+41.4). The 49ers have yielded 2.0, 3.3, 3.3, and 3.4 yards per carry through their first four games. Even Adrian Peterson, while playing with a lead, was unable to generate anything on the ground against this team. There is no good way to attack the 49ers defense. Want to run off the ends with your TEs helping? Then you run into OLB Aldon Smith (+4.4) who has graded out strongly vs the run. How about off tackle? Well then say hello to DE Justin Smith (+8.0). Through the middle of the defense you go? Ok, now you are running into ILBs NaVorro Bowman (+8.4) and Patrick Willis (+6.2).
Bench Fred Jackson this week—it is a really easy decision to make. Don't even think twice.
(Featured in Week 4: Michael Bush, who managed only 29 yards rushing on 10 carries)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. Miami
There was talk from his coaches that the law firm might lose his feature back role because of his recent fumble issues. While I don't doubt this to be true, I think it's safe to assume that it is more likely that these two recent fumbles in back-to-back games will stand as outliers. Regardless, this is the week to bench BGE. The Dolphins boast the second-strongest run-defense so far (+39.0). The middle of their defense has been impenetrable for opposing backs with LBs Koa Misi (+7.6), Karlos Dansby (+6.5), and NT Paul Soliai (+5.2). This bodes particularly poorly for the Bengals–44 of 82 (54%) of their runs have went through the middle, middle-left, and middle-right of opposing defenses in 2012. If they plan to continue that trend, only a touchdown will be able to save BGE this week. Relegate the LawFirm to the bench against the Dolphins.
(Featured in Week 4: Shonn Greene, who totaled 34 yards rushing on 11 carries)
Chris Johnson vs. Minnesota
Chris Johnson finally broke out a little bit last week against the Texans when he rushed for 141 yards on 25 carries. However, of those 141, 60 yards came when the game was already out of hand and Houston was playing in a shell/prevent defense. This week CJ runs into a Vikings defense that has been stingy against the run all season. The Vikings are currently PFF's seventh-best run-defense (+21.0) grading out positively in all four games. Their strength has been through the middle with DT Kevin Williams (+3.7), the remaining half of the classic and timeless “Williams wall” and MLB Erin Henderson (+6.2).
It is rare to be in a league where you have the luxury of benching CJ, but against the Vikings run defense CJ will come back to earth and struggle to gain any positive yardage.
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