Three to Focus on - Vikings @ Packers

It’s only been a couple weeks since the Packers held off a furious, last-minute comeback attempt in order to preserve a victory at the Metrodome. Green Bay built a gaudy third quarter lead behind Aaron Rodgers’ near perfect aerial assault, only to have their defense hand it away in the fourth quarter giving up big plays , costly penalties and long scoring drives. A similar scenario has played out several times for the Packers this season, including last week where a timely interception on the final drive, thwarted San Diego’s upset hopes.

The Vikings enter this game after a hard-fought victory over an improving Panthers team and a relatively quiet bye week—a welcome departure from several weeks full of off-the-field drama. Have no doubt the Vikings are relishing the chance to bring down their bitter rival, and NFL’s top team, on their home turf.

Adrian Peterson vs. Packers Run Defense

Reducing Rogers’ scoring opportunities should be the Vikings first priority. On defense this means limiting the big plays and forcing Rodgers to eat up the clock working his way down the field. On offense it means stretching out drives with lots of Adrian Peterson. Peterson had his best rushing performance of the season (+4.9) during their Week 7 meeting. When the Vikings offensive line was able to pave the way to the second level, he made Packers defenders look ridiculous. Peterson forced five missed tackles and had the majority of his yardage (104 yards) after contact. Few were spared, with A.J. Hawk, Charlie Peprah and Charles Woodson all grading in the negative trying to slow him down.

The Packers run defense didn’t do much better last week against San Diego’s Mike Tolbert, totaling another five missed tackles and a cumulative rating of -2.5. Their lone bright spot was Charles Woodson (+2.2) who finally graded in the green after what has been a string of shoddy run performances.

Vikings Defensive Ends vs. Packers Tackles

The Green Bay tackles scored a surprise victory in the first installment of this matchup, helping to hold the dynamic duo of Jared Allen and Brian Robison to just five total pressures. After an up and down (mostly down) rookie season, Brian Bulaga is quietly establishing himself as one of the top right tackles in the league (we recently had him as second team in our PFF Mid-Season All Pro Team). He has been exceptional among his peers in run blocking (ranked 3^rd at +7.0) and is strong pass blocking as well (9th at +4.7 and 14th in Pass Blocking Efficiency). He held Robison – one of the leagues’ leaders in total pressures (34) – to just two pressures on the night.

Likely of biggest concern to the Packers that evening was how second-year player, Marshall Newhouse would fare protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blindside against the NFL’s premier sack-artist, Allen. Newhouse did give up an ugly one to Allen on a complete whiff during the first quarter, but settled in after that and didn’t allow a sniff the rest of the way. Newhouse has been improving in pass protection as the season has worn on, and it’s beginning to look like there won’t be a starting position available for Chad Clifton, even if he’s able to recover from a hamstring injury.

Allen and Robison followed Week 7 with an even quieter performance against the Panthers, combining for only one sack and two pressures. The Vikings defense is predicated on getting pressure with their front four, so much more will be needed from the pair this time around.

Christian Ponder vs. Packers Pass Defense

It’s hard to find many detractors for their passing offense, but skeptics abound for the Packers pass defense. Last season it was strength, especially among the linebacking unit and in the secondary with Tramon Williams and Nick Collins. This year the LBs have taken several steps backwards, (only Hawk is grading in the positive, and just barely at +0.9), Nick Collins is on IR, and Williams (+2.3) just isn’t the same player we saw at the end of last season.

But things also aren’t as bad as their current 31th ranking in passing yards allowed or 30th ranking in pass TDs allowed would suggest. They lead the league with 16 interceptions, and have a middle of the road ranking in our cumulative team coverage ratings. At this point, “mediocre” is probably a more accurate description for their pass defense than “awful” and plenty of teams have won a Super Bowl with less.

Ponder has a few more snaps under his belt now, but nobody’s expecting him to go toe to toe with Rodgers just yet. He certainly didn’t match Rodgers jaw-dropping performance in Week 7 (+7.5) but didn’t need to with help from Peterson and the Green Bay defense. If Ponder can cut back on the turnovers, and deliver a few clutch throws down the stretch….well, the Packers have to lose eventually, don’t they?