Three to Focus on - Saints @ Falcons

When it comes to NFC rivalries, it doesn’t get much better than how good this one has been in recent years. The last three times the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons played, the road team won by three points. Each team is sitting at three losses and the winner will take the lead in the division, likely putting them in a position of power when they meet up again.

To make things even better, both teams are coming off of performances where they were dominant on offense against two teams that were once coached by Tony Dungy. Atlanta rolled over a weak Colts team, while New Orleans took advantage of a Buccaneers team that seemed to forget the basics of football.

You could just sit back and enjoy these offenses go to work, but let’s look at some of the specific things to look out for in what should be another great NFC South matchup.

Extra receiving option

Last year, the Falcons had a bit of trouble in the passing game when they threw to anyone not named Tony Gonzalez or Roddy White. In their first matchup, Harry Douglas was the number two receiver and dropped two of the four passes thrown his way. In the second matchup, Michael Jenkins was the number two receiver, but had just one yard per pass route run. This time around, they have Julio Jones (+4.9) as a passing option after trading a substantial portion of their draft to get him. His 131 yards and two touchdowns last week landed him on the Week 9 All-PFF Team, and given his explosiveness represents a totally new threat for the Saints to deal with.

In the past, Jabari Greer (+1.8) and Tracy Porter (-2.0) have had average to below average games, but the Saints will have some problems as Porter suffered a neck injury which he was carted off the field for last week. This probably means that Patrick Robinson (+1.0) will get the start with Leigh Torrence (-3.2) as the nickel back. Against the Buccaneers last week, Torrence allowed all six balls thrown his way to be caught for 91 yards, so the Falcons will likely take advantage of him when they can. If they can then it could prove hard for the Saints to get the Falcons offense off the field.

More Improved Offense

The Falcons aren’t the only team to have improved their already potent offense. In two meetings against the Falcons last year, Pierre Thomas (+7.6) had 28 carries for 93 yards; which averages to just 3.3 yards per carry. In their first meeting, Chris Ivory (+0.9) was playing in his first NFL game which happened to be his worst, and by the second meeting the backfield was so decimated that Julius Jones was the backup running back. Yes, that Julius Jones.

This year they have Darren Sproles (+8.1) added to the lineup. They only ask him to run a handful of times each game, but when he has it’s been for 7.1 yards per carry on 49 runs which leads the league for anyone above 15 carries. Their lead back has been Mark Ingram (+1.8), who had 14 carries for 91 yards in his last game before getting injured and he could be back and part of the rotation as he’s returned to practice. If he does miss this game, the Saints are in good hands with Thomas and Ivory carrying the load and Jed Collins (+8.9) lead blocking for them. Collins has been hands down the best fullback in the league, and has had six straight games with positive run block ratings. The Falcons won’t be the only team with a better offense this time around, and they are about to face their biggest test, as a run defense unit, on the season.

Jermon Bushrod vs. John Abraham

In his last six games against the Saints, John Abraham (+9.7) has had 29 overall pressures. The one constant that past Saints/Falcons games have had is Abraham’s great play. He has 20 overall pressures this year which isn’t bad considering he missed a game, and with Atlanta limiting his playing time. As usual, he will be lined up against Jermon Bushrod (+2.6) for the most part, though he has rushed from the left side on 31.7% of his pass rushes. Bushrod has played considerably better than in previous years, allowing 3.1 pressures per game this year compared to 3.8 last year, and has been far more assured in the run game after being our lowest graded tackle in 2010. Still, Abraham represents his biggest test to date, and if he reverts to the Bushrod of old, it could have a big impact on this game.