The Green Bay Packers haven’t lost a meaningful game since last December, which coincidently is the last time that the St. Louis Rams have won a meaningful game. This week’s game is in Green Bay and the Packers are favored to win by more than two touchdowns, so it would be an incredibly tough sell to try convincing someone that St. Louis will win this one.
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With that being said, there are some matchups that the Rams have an advantage in. Therefore, if they do end up winning or keeping this game close, here is exactly how they would go about doing it.
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1) Packers Offensive Tackles vs. Rams DE Chris Long
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The Packers are currently a mess at offensive tackle. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga (+6.8) has been much improved compared to last year, but he has missed the last two games with an injury. His replacement, Marshall Newhouse (-5.7), has a pass blocking efficiency of 91.5 which ranks 57th of 71 qualifying offensive tackles. During last week’s game, Chad Clifton left with an injury and he is expected to be out for an extended period of time. Green Bay reacted by moving Newhouse to left tackle and rookie Derek Sherrod (+0.4) made his debut at right tackle. The status of Bulaga in this game is currently uncertain, which means we could see any combination of these three players at left and right tackle.
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The Rams have just the man to take advantage of the situation in Chris Long (+9.9 pass rush). This year he has averaged getting to the quarterback for a sack or hit twice a game and has had at least four pressures in each of the first four games. He has dominated offensive tackles before, with nine combined pressures this year against the Ravens, and had as many as ten pressures in a game prior to this season.
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This season, Aaron Rodgers has been unbelievable without pressure, with over 10 yards per attempt, a touchdown on one in every ten throws and an accuracy percentage of 85%. On the other hand, under pressure he has just seven yards per attempt, no touchdowns, and an accuracy percentage of 61%. The key to stopping Rodgers is pressure, and Long is just the man to do it.
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2) Rams QB Sam Bradford vs. Packers Secondary
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This year we have seen an improved version of Sam Bradford (+13.5). Probably the biggest change is in his interception rate, where he had roughly an interception a game in his rookie year compared to this year where he has just one interception total. However, we’ve seen the most improvement on his passes less than 10 yards, where he had a rating of +0.5 last year, and a rating of +6.0 this year.
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Bradford will be going up against a Packers secondary that hasn't played as well as in previous years. Nickel cornerback Sam Shields (-4.7) has allowed at least 60 yards in three games, which he only did four times all of last year. It looks like age is starting to get the best of Charles Woodson (-8.9) as well. In two of the past four games, he has allowed more than 100 receiving yards. In comparison he allowed over 100 receiving yards just twice in the 53 games from 2008-2010.
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If Bradford can target these two players, he should be able to make a number of first downs, which would keep the Packers offense off the field and keep the Rams scoring points.
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3) Packers Wide Receivers vs. Rams CB Justin King
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The Packers look set at wide receiver for years to come. Amongst the top 14 players in yards per pass route run, are James Jones (-1.0) at 2.71, Jordy Nelson (+4.1) at 2.60 and Greg Jennings (+7.6) at 2.42. On top of that, rookie Randall Cobb (+3.1) has been great when called upon with a 4.24 yards per pass route run. On any given play, the Packers could go to any of these receivers and they would probably make a play. This group will be in Green Bay for years to come, and I’m not even mentioning their all-time leading receiver or their star tight end.
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If the Packers are able to do this against average cornerbacks, imagine what they can do against the lowest rated cornerback in the league. You won’t have to imagine much longer, as Justin King (-14.3) will be lined up against someone on any given play. He is the man that Torrey Smith had his huge first quarter against, and outside of the Ravens game he hasn’t been tested too much. If the Packers are going to take advantage of anyone in particular in the Rams secondary, it will likely be King to see if they can replicate the performance the Ravens had in week three.
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