As the New England Patriots prepare to face the Philadelphia Eagles, it’s hard not to imagine that a fair share of warnings haven’t been thrown around the Patriots' locker room. This time of year is always a dangerous time to play a 4-6 team—it’s too early for them to feel completely out of the mix, yet the desperation of needing to win every remaining game is never more important. Following a valiant performance by their defensive line, the Eagles looked like a team emotionally ready to make run after pulling out a close game against the Giants last week. This week should be a good test as to whether or not they are actually physically capable of making the run they would need.
The Patriots are coming off of their best defensive performance of the year after beating the Chiefs handily on Monday Night Football, 34-3. Granted, it was against a Tyler Palko-led Chiefs team who recently acquired Kyle Orton, which should be a good indication that the Chiefs never believed Palko to be “their guy” in the first place. With a seemingly secure grasp on their division, the Patriots will have to fight the urge to take this game lightly—having Bill Belichick at the helm is a good way to fight that.
Here are three things to keep your eye on in this game:
LeSean McCoy vs. Patriots Front Seven
Maybe it’s just me, but the season LeSean McCoy (+16.2 rush grade) is having seems buried in the talk about how disappointing the Eagles' season has been. Not only is McCoy’s rush grade best among all NFL backs, he also ranks high on two other PFF Signature Stats. The first is PFF’s Elusive Rating which looks at how running backs are performing beyond the point of being helped by their blockers, on which McCoy is ranked 11th primarily because of his 38 forced missed tackles. He also ranks fifth on PFF’s Breakaway Percentage with 42.5% of all of his yards coming on runs of 15 yards or more, and he's second among all running backs with 16 of those runs. Key to slowing down the attack will be Andre Carter (+19.2) who has yet to grade negatively in run defense this season. His +11.2 grade against the run is fourth among all defensive ends, and is only one of five defensive ends with at least 500+ snaps that has yet to miss a tackle.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Eagles Linebackers
Saints’ fans might bristle at my next statement, but Rob Gronkowski (+16.4) is the best young tight end in the NFL. Yes, Jimmy Graham isn’t far off, but he’s not nearly as complete as Gronkowski is at this point in his career. Gronkowski leads all tight ends in both pass grade (+14.1) and blocking grade (+5.1). In last week’s game against the Chiefs, Gronkowski caught two touchdown passes that perfectly highlighted what makes him so special. On the first he flashed his burst and balance as he tight-roped the sideline to finish off his first 52-yard touchdown, and the second highlighted how tough he is to bring down as he broke multiple tackles and hurdled in for a 19-yard score. This is now his second consecutive season with 10 touchdowns, which is impressive because it has become evident teams are beginning to gameplan against him. In PFF’s Signature Stat, Yards per Route Run, Gronkowski is second only to Jimmy Graham with 770 yards on 325 passing routes. It should be safe to say that Gronk will be a tough task for any of the Eagles linebackers. That is, assuming the Eagles don’t draw up a more elaborate way of assigning defensive personnel to the sophomore tight end.
Eagles D-Line vs. Patriots O-Line
There weren’t more than a handful of Eli Manning’s 38 dropbacks against the Eagles where he looked truly comfortable against the Eagles’ defensive line. With their “Wide 9” defensive front, the Eagles generated 34 total QB disruptions (5 sacks, 4 hits, and 25 pressures), and sealed the game with a strip sack from Jason Babin (+12.2). Every major contributor on the Eagles defensive line has a positive overall grade: Babin, Cullen Jenkins (+11.8), Mike Patterson (+5.9), Trent Cole (+18.8), and Trevor Laws (+2.2). Though most of the hype in the offseason surrounded the secondary with two new added pieces, the defensive line looks to be the piece capable of carrying the defensive effort. They will be a tough task for the Patriots offensive line that has been similarly impressive this season, yet not flawless. The Patriots offensive line ranks fifth in PFF’s Pass Blocking Efficiency, however there have been times in various games where they’ve looked vulnerable. For example, at one stretch in the second quarter of last week’s game the line looked completely confused and outmatched, allowing three sacks in just five dropbacks. Against a front like the Eagles, if Patriots offensive line gets off to a similarly slow start Patriots fans just better hope Brady is able pick himself up off the deck every time he goes down.
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