This is a story about offseason moves. Moves the Patriots made and moves the Dolphins didn’t make after the lockout lifted.
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New Englandwent and added all kinds of talent from some unconventional avenues, landing them Albert Haynesworth, Chad Ochocinco, and most recently, Brian Waters. All of those players are former All-Pros, and they all have varying degrees of gas left in the tank – more than enough to justify the relatively small outlays made in each case.
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The Miami Dolphins spent much of the offseason looking to make a deal for Denver quarterback Kyle Orton, only to balk at the value late in the day, before rushing to give Chad Henne a ringing endorsement as their guy and the leader of the team.
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Miami traditionally plays above themselves when they meet the Patriots, and Week 1 games are usually a bit squirrely, but should the Patriots be worried?
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Let’s talk about what you should look for.
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1) New England’s Defensive Front
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The Patriots made a lot of headlines, and plenty of reporter hysteria, by switching to a 4-3 front before camp this year. They tipped their hat with the release of Ty Warren, but in essence, it doesn’t really matter to anybody inside the organization how many men line up with their hand in the ground. Bill Belichick runs his defense by gap responsibility, not by whether a guy is in a two- or three-point stance, and the important thing is that the Patriots will be playing a lot more one-gap defense. Why does that matter? It allows guys like Albert Haynesworth to attack without needing to hold things up and wait for the play come to him. Haynesworth in particular has the chance to be special in this defense. Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter should also both be effective complements.
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2)The right side of Miami’s O-line
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Vernon Carey has been one of the league’s better right tackles for a while, though he was reduced to being simply average last season nd finished with a PFF grade of -1.1. The problem for Miami is that Carey struggled badly at guard earlier in his career, and Marc Colombo last season for Dallas was a disaster at RT. Colombo was once a decent player, but his time looks to have come and gone. His -34.1 PFF grade from 2010 was better than only two players: J’Marcus Webb and Levi Brown, Brown being the benchmark for poor offensive tackle play. Colombo allowed seven sacks, 11 hits and an additional 40 pressures over the season and what was once a strength of theMiami team is suddenly looking like a pretty major problem.
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Shaun Ellis will likely move around for the Patriots just like he did with the Jets, but he has more than either of those Miamilinemen can cope with on that side of the line and could make it a long day at the office for Chad Henne.
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3) The New England Secondary
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Outside of Devin McCourty, who, as a rookie, looked well on his way to becoming one of the league’s best corners, the Patriots’ secondary is essentially a crapshoot for various reasons. After charting what they did with their safeties last season, I don’t think even they had any idea what they were doing by the end of it. And, the rate at which they cycle through young corners makes you think they’re just going to baptize each of them by fire until they find another McCourty. It worked once, but it also resulted in a lot of those guys winding up on the scrap heap.
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Outside of McCourty, they have the return of Leigh Bodden, which should help, though he isn’t young anymore and coming off injury late in a career is always harder than attempting to do so earlier. Patrick Chung is versatile but has never really demonstrated consistently good play, and they said goodbye to James Sanders, arguably their best safety. So it’s back to another rookie corner to get thrown to the lions and tested, this time in the shape of Ras-I Dowling. I fully expect there to be some more rotation at the other safety position as they look for an answer there. For a team expected to chase a Super Bowl, this is a really below-par looking unit.
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