One last chance to watch Cam Newton as a rookie, one last chance for the New Orleans Saints to build momentum ahead of the playoffs and an outside chance of a bye week. The formula is pretty simple for both the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints this week as the Panthers chance of playing spoiler for a second time in three weeks was thrown out of the window Monday night as the Saints clinched both the division and the single season passing record for the Saints and Drew Brees.
With the 49ers needing only a road victory over the hapless Rams, the Saints appear to be locked into the third seed so much of the intrigue in this game is gone. However if the Saints stick to Sean Payton’s claim that they will go full throttle for sixty minutes to maintain their momentum into the post-season this game still has the potential to be one of the best on the Week 17 slate. The first game between these two was a close three point victory for the Saints and a wide open Carolina offense has the chance to keep pace with, if not beat, Drew Brees and the Saints. Here are three focus points in our last chance to watch Cam Newton in a competitive game for eight months.
Beating the blitz
Whilst he has had his struggles passing the ball at times in 2011 there is no doubt that Cam Newton (+7.2) has proved beyond reasonable doubt that he, and spread quarterbacks like him, can be a success in the NFL. One of Newton’s key successes this year and one that will be pivotal to the Panthers’ success this week is his play passing the football in the face of the blitz. Few teams blitz more than the New Orleans Saints and some would say they blitz too much, so Newton will have plenty of chances to build upon his success beating the blitz this week. When teams don’t blitz Newton and he has to throw against coverage his completion percentage is higher (61.5%) than when he faces the blitz (56.0%) but his mistakes against the blitz are far less. Newton has only throw two interceptions in 141 pass attempts against the blitz whilst he has thrown 14 interceptions in 351 pass attempts against a base pass rush. If the Saints stay in their blitz happy mold watch out for a big game from Newton and the Panthers’ passing game.
Pound the rock – Keep Newton off the field
An underused aspect of the Saints offense this season is their running game, which in spite of a strong stable of running backs and a powerful offensive line has seen a diminished role in 2011, Drew Brees' assualt on the record books is a likely reason. If the Saints want to maintain momentum and give themselves an easier ride into the playoffs they may look to feed the ball to players like Darren Sproles (+11.0), Pierre Thomas (+16.4) and Christopher Ivory (+2.6). The Panthers have had a tough time defending the run all season and with the variety of players the Saints can call upon behind a quality offensive line powered by their guard pairing of Carl Nicks (+23.8) and Jahri Evans (+9.5) they should be able to make comfortable gains against Carolina on Sunday and give themselves an easier ride towards that win that will give them a sniff of a bye week for at least three hours.
Matching up with Graham
There are two aspects of this New Orleans offense that have become so efficient and borderline unstoppable, that you’re almost looking for a rule they’re breaking by having Sproles and Jimmy Graham on the field. In such a wide open offense Sproles has been a god-send for the Saints but in the red zone Graham has been, for want of a better word, “money” for Brees and the Saints. In the first encounter between these two teams in Week 5, Graham registered in excess of 100 yards with the majority of his catches and targets coming against Charles Godfrey. With the Panthers linebacking corps depleted and the lack of a big bodied corner, the task of covering Graham will likely fall on Godfrey’s shoulders again. For as long as Graham and the Saints’ starting skill position players are in, Godfrey and the Panthers’ back seven are in for a long day in the Superdome.
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