Outside of maybe the Ravens and Steelers matchups, it’s hard to find two teams that are rivals that you know the game will be close. The last four times the Saints and Falcons have faced off, the road team has won by three points, with the last game ending up in overtime.
A victory by New Orleans clinches them the division, and moves them a step forward to a potential first round bye. A Falcons victory clinches them a playoff birth, and gives them an opportunity to win the division if they can also win in Week 17, and the Saints lose in Week 17.
Along with the typical motivation to win, they have playoff scenarios to increase their motivation, and knowing that everyone is watching them on Monday Night Football. Most importantly, there is not much that can top a win against a division rival. Here are the three matchups where someone will need to do something unexpected to help give their team a victory.
Slowing Down Drew Brees
It might be impossible to stop Drew Brees (+49.7). When these teams played in Week 10, Brees averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, had two touchdowns, and wasn’t sacked. Last week Brees had one of the greatest games by a quarterback we have seen, with 10.3 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, and again wasn’t sacked. The only injury the Saints offense has in terms of players in during passing formations is guard Jahri Evans (+10.8), but his replacement last week Matt Tennant (+0.5) didn’t allow any pressure.
While you can’t expect to stop Brees, there is some good news. It looks like cornerback Brent Grimes (+15.0), who has missed the last three games for the Falcons, will be back. In the last game against the Saints, he allowed just one catch for 10 yards. Slot cornerback Kelvin Hayden (-8.0) allowed four catches for 60 yards in their last matchup, but he is likely going to miss this game. It looks like Dominique Franks (-0.6) will play in the slot instead, and Franks has looked better than Hayden. In the four games where he has seen significant action, he has allowed nine of 14 balls thrown his way to be caught for 159 yards. He has yet to allow a touchdown, and has two passes defensed. The Falcons are going to need all of the help they can get in stopping this passing attack.
The Other Great Quarterback
Although Matt Ryan (+25.1) has not been playing as well as Brees, in this game he might be playing close to that level. In the last game against the Saints, Ryan wasn’t sacked, and was just hit twice and pressured five times on 58 pass plays, although there was more unblocked pressure. When Ryan isn’t pressured, he looks as good as anyone, completing 253 of 381 passes for 3017 yards, 23 touchdowns and just seven interceptions on the year.
Typically Will Smith (+4.9) is the man getting the pressure for the Saints. He started his season, with pressure on 12.2% of his pass plays in his first three games. Since then, he has just gotten pressure in 6.5% of his pass plays. Instead, the player most likely to cause some pressure is Junior Galette (+3.2 pass rush). He is a backup, and just comes in for the nickel defense, but he has come up with either a sack or a hit (or last week both) in each of his past four games. If they Saints can get even a little pressure, it should slow down Ryan’s passing offense some. If not, then this game could quickly become a shoot-out.
No Mark Ingram, No Problem
When the Saints and Falcons faced each other a few weeks back, Mark Ingram (+3.4) had 1.4 yards per carry, Pierre Thomas (+16.3) had 4.8 yards per carry, and Darren Sproles (+10.0) was just given two opportunities to run the ball. Ingram still hasn’t been practicing, so chances are that Thomas, Sproles and Chris Ivory will be getting the carries. Since the last New Orleans/Atlanta matchup, Sproles has been getting six carries per game, and is averaging 5.9 yards per run in that time. Ivory (+1.6) has been playing well as well, with 4.1 yards per carry, and has had seven players miss tackles on him on his 52 carries. While Ingram has been having a good rookie season, his kryptonite was the Falcons run defense, and the other options have been playing just as well or better.
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