It is not often that division rivals meet twice in the regular season on Sunday Night Football, but here we are as the 8-7 Dallas Cowboys travel to the 8-7 New York Giants for what has turned out to be a de facto playoff game with the winner taking the NFC East crown.
The Cowboys are coming off a 20-7 loss to the Eagles in a game many inaccurately labeled “meaningless” (the Cowboys could have won a wild card spot with a win and two Falcons losses) despite playing all their starters for the majority of the game except Tony Romo and Felix Jones. Meanwhile, the Giants–after being swept by the bottom-dwellers of their division, the Washington Redskins–bounced back last week with a 29-14 win over in-state rivals, the New York Jets.
These two teams’ last meeting was a classic football game for the ages, with the G-Men winning 37-34 thanks in part to a blocked field goal at the end of the game. Could this rematch possibly live up to that epic first game? Check out three factors that could determine who is still playing next weekend.
Manning vs. Romo
Any number of performances could impact this game, but most likely the victory is going to come from the best QB performance. Both Eli Manning (4,587 yards, 26 TDs with 38 dropped passes) and Tony Romo (3,914 yards, 29 TDs with 25 drops) have had solid years and, unlike too many signal-callers in the league, neither gets too rattled under pressure; Manning’s 95.6 NFL passer rating without any pressure only drops to 80.7 with pressure, while Romo’s 107.8 rating pressure-free only drops to 87.0 when the heat gets there. But which one will come through in the clutch? Manning has three negatively-graded passing performances while Romo has six, and both have a few game-winning drives on their resume this season. The hand injury Romo sustained in last week’s game could be the wildcard in this matchup, but he has practiced this week.
Both QBs had magnificent games in their Week 14 showdown, but both also made crucial mistakes: at 10:42 in the first Q, Manning threw what should have been a pick-six to Terrence Newman (who dropped the easy interception) and would throw a pick off a deflection later on at 6:50 in the fourth within field goal range. As for Romo, with 2:25 left in the game he overthrew a wide open Miles Austin for what would have been a game-clinching touchdown. A single mistake from either QB, no matter how insignificant it appears at the time, could be the deciding factor in this contest.
DeMarcus Ware and Jason-Pierre Paul
DeMarcus Ware (+28.3) and Jason-Pierre Paul (+26.9) each have a chance to make an impact in this game. JPP certainly impacted the Week 14 contest, beating LT Doug Free for two sacks (one being a safety early in the game), forcing a Felix Jones fumble deep in Dallas territory, and blocking the potential game-tying field goal at the end of the game.
Ware, possibly because of lingering injuries, did not have as much of an impact the first time around, earning one of his lowest overall grades of the year (+0.2), despite beating PFF-whipping boy David Diehl for six pressures. Since moving back to left tackle following a series of games starting at guard, Diehl has graded red in all five games, so Ware–who has only four games without a sack–not getting a sack against the turnstile is inexcusable, especially since Manning has proven capable while being hurried. Ware will need to take advantage of this matchup much more if the Cowboys want to take part in Wild Card Weekend.
The Running Game
Passing is much easier in the cozy Dallas dome than in the outdoor environment of MetLife Stadium, where wind, rain, and other weather elements could easily make life hard for either QB. That means both teams will likely have to utilize their running backs.
Despite only having two negative rushing performances this year (against the Jets and the stingy 49ers), former first round pick Felix Jones has been a disappointment for the Cowboys, occasionally breaking off long runs but more often than not having to leave the field with an injury. One of his three 100-yard rushing performances this year came against the Giants (after DeMarco Murray, who took his starting job, went down with injury), which does bode well for Dallas, but that performance also included a fumble deep in their own territory; his third lost fumble of the year. Aside from Jones, the Cowboys have Sammy Morris, who has 82 yards on 25 carries and three forced missed tackles through two games, but they don’t want to rely too heavily on a free agent who’s been on their team for less than a month.
On the other sideline, Ahmad Bradshaw has also been injured for a decent stretch of the season and has only one 100-yard game this year. He looks to be back to 100%; gaining only 54 yards on 15 carries but forcing two missed tackles and scoring twice last week, he also knocked SS Brodney Poole out of the game on his first TD run. When Bradshaw isn’t running, Brandon Jacobs, who had by far his best game of the season against the Cowboys (101 yards, two TDs, two forced missed tackles), will be.
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