It’s going to be a big reunion in Foxboro this Monday night when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the New England Patriots. The Chiefs are often referred to as the “New England Patriots of the West,” as they have a number of coaches and executives that came through the ranks with Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick (including head coach Todd Haley, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and general manager Scott Pioli). These ties go one step further, as it was against the Chiefs in 2008 that quarterback Tom Brady was injured for the season. That injury opened the door for quarterback Matt Cassel, who is now the starter in Kansas City, though he is out with a hand injury.
Despite an up-and-down season, the 4-5 Chiefs are in the thick of the race in the AFC West, just one game behind the Oakland Raiders. Losing Cassel may be a big blow, but their season still hinges on developing a more consistent running game and a stronger defense. The Patriots are coming off of a huge division win Sunday night against the New York Jets, and they appear to be in the driver’s seat in the battle for the AFC East. Still, anything can happen in the NFL, particularly on Monday night, so let’s take a look at some of the key battles for the game.
Matching up with the Patriots’ Passing Game
With the Chiefs' defense playing a very similar scheme as the Patriots, quarterback Tom Brady might feel like it’s just another week of practice. That’s not to say that it will be easy, but the Chiefs’ straightforward scheme will make it easier for the Patriots to get the matchups they want. Let’s start with cornerback Brandon Flowers (+4.4). Flowers is clearly the Chiefs’ best defender, but he exclusively lines up on the left side. Meanwhile, Brandon Carr (+2.6) is solid at the other cornerback position, but with safeties and linebackers who struggle in coverage, Brady may be able to avoid the Brandons altogether. It will then be on the Chiefs to mix up their coverages to deal with the difficult matchups provided by tight ends Rob Gronkowski (+15.6) and Aaron Hernandez (+3.3 pass) and wide receiver Wes Welker (+15.0). Gronkowski and Welker are second in our Signature Stat Yards Per Route Run at their respective positions.
If the Chiefs go with the same game plan as the Patriots’ recent opponents, expect to see a lot of sub package looks. Over the last three games, the Patriots have seen five or more defensive backs on the field an astounding 89% of the time. Perhaps more shocking than that is that they have seen seven defensive back looks more often than they’ve seen the opposing team’s base defense. After only being needed for one snap last week against the Georgia Tech (Denver Broncos) option attack, nickelback Javier Arenas will be matched-up with Welker in the slot. Safety Jon McGraw and his -5.0 coverage grade will see plenty of Gronkowski and Hernandez, and the Patriots may look to isolate linebackers Jovan Belcher (-3.9 coverage) and Justin Houston (-6.9 coverage) as well. Brady should have plenty of chances to exploit the middle of the Kansas City defense.
Chiefs Offensive Line vs. Patriots Defensive Line
With Matt Cassel injured and quarterback Tyler Palko set to get the start, Kansas City’s offensive line will be asked to step up their game. The Chiefs would love to get their running game going, but blocking has been an issue all season, particularly on the right side where guard Jon Asamoah and tackle Barry Richardson reside. Their -6.9 and -16.6 respective run block grades are extremely poor, with Richardson pulling up the rear among all tackles in the league. Despite the struggles running the ball, the Chiefs' offensive line ranks ninth in Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) at 89.3. Given the strong protection, in addition to going up against a depleted Patriots secondary, the Chiefs may be inclined to air it out with Palko.
On the other side, it’s been a mixed bag up front for the Patriots. They have done a decent job stopping the run all season and they have just started to pressure the quarterback off the edge in recent weeks. Defensive end Andre Carter (+16.5) has been outstanding all season, and his four-sack Sunday night performance against the Jets was more a confirmation of his solid play than a coming out party. The most consistent pass rusher has been defensive end Mark Anderson who saw a season-high 41 snaps on Sunday and now has 25 QB disruptions on 156 pass rushes. A big key for the Patriots has been getting a pass rush from more than one source in a given game, so if Carter and Anderson can continue their strong play, the defense has a chance to improve immensely the second half of the season.
Chiefs Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary
Due to a number of releases and injuries, the Patriots secondary was made up of all undrafted free agents for the majority of the game against the Jets. While they played fairly well, this could be the one matchup that the Chiefs will be able to exploit. Taking over at left cornerback for Devin McCourty is Antwaun Molden (-3.8), while cornerback Phillip Adams (-4.1) plays the nickel; the two were released in training camp by the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. Right cornerback Kyle Arrington (+6.1) has had a solid season, and his pass break up in the end zone last week was a great adjustment after getting beat by a similar route the previous game. Another early season release, free safety Sterling Moore, was relatively untested last week in his first ever start at the position and he may be challenged down the field by Dwayne Bowe. Currently ranked 10th in YPRR at 2.26, Bowe is one of the best deep threats in the league. On the other side, Steve Breaston is 18th in YPRR at 1.85 and new to the mix in recent weeks is rookie receiver Jonathan Baldwin. The Chiefs love to take deep shots to the 6’5″ Baldwin, and the catch he made last week reaching around a defender was just ridiculous. Even though the play was negated by a penalty, Baldwin has the size and speed to create problems for any secondary in a given week and the Patriots' secondary will need protection from another strong pass rush to handle these three targets.
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