Unless you’re a fan of either of these two teams, you probably won’t be watching this game. The 13-point favorite Green Bay Packers host a Denver Broncos team that is trying to change its identity and become a better defensive ball-control team, and they will be facing their toughest test yet.
The Packers have the firepower to win this one without too much difficulty, but they need to be focused and not looking ahead to the 2010 divisional round rematch with Atlanta in week five. The Broncos should be out to prove that no team is 13 points better than they are this early into the season, but willpower can only take a team so far.
Let’s take a look at some of the individual matchups the Broncos must win to make this game competitive.
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1) Tight End Jermichael Finley vs. Broncos linebackers/safeties
The league didn’t realize how lucky it was to not have to deal with Jermichael Finley all of last season, but if he stays healthy and plays the way he’s capable of on a consistent basis, each of his 2011 opponents are going to be wishing they didn’t have to deal with him again this year. Finley was an effective cog in the Packers’ first two games, but against Chicago he elevated to Rodgers’ number two target behind Greg Jennings, and pulled in three touchdowns on his eight targets. That performance boosted Finley to number four in our overall tight end rankings.
The Broncos have had trouble covering tight ends in the past, but they’ve done a good job in that department over the first two weeks, despite giving up a touchdown to Daniel Graham last week. With that being said, Finley is an entirely different monster than anything this newly reinvigorated Denver defense has ever faced, and though the return of linebacker D.J. Williams helps, they still have quite a challenge ahead of them. Do you double Finley and leave Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson in man coverage, or do you leave Williams or Brian Dawkins to deal with him on their own and hope for the best? Finley’s size and athleticism can cause all sorts of problems for the Broncos, so it will be interesting to see how Denver plans to defend him.
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2) The status of Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey
The availability and effectiveness of defensive right end Elvis Dumervil and cornerback Champ Bailey will go a long way towards deciding whether or not Denver can compete against the defending super Bowl champs. Dumervil is expected to play and appears to be recovering nicely, but Bailey is testing his hamstring day-to-day and doesn’t know if he will play or not yet. Even if he does, he has to be able to contend with Greg Jennings and if he’s not at 100% or close to, Jennings will take advantage of him. Aaron Rodgers is no fool, and will attack the injured defensive back over and over again. How Bailey responds to this will be crucial to Denver’s success. If he defends the first couple of throws well, there he may not be targeted for the rest of the afternoon, but if he doesn’t, he could have the ball thrown at him all day. Dumervil’s effectiveness is equally important, because the quicker he can get to Rodgers, the less time Packers receivers have to get separation from the hobbled Bailey.
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3) Clay Matthews vs. Broncos protection schemes
Remember when undrafted free agent Byron Bell replaced right tackle Jeff Otah for the Carolina Panthers in week two and everyone thought that Clay Matthews would eat the poor kid alive? Well Matthews picked up eight pressures in that game, and it could be more of the same if the Broncos aren’t careful with the way that they use rookie right tackle Orlando Franklin. Franklin was highly touted coming out of college as a mauling run-blocker, not a pass-protector, and so far he’s fit the bill, having allowed ten pressures on the season. Six of those pressures came in week one, before the Broncos began trying harder to compensate for Franklin’s inexperience by giving him more help from right guard Chris Kuper and utilizing tight ends and running backs more often in protection on his side. Facing Matthews, those protection schemes are going to be very important as the coaching staff has probably put a lot of work into trying to make sure Matthews is accounted for, and if the players get mixed up in these schemes, it’ll only take a moment of confusion for Matthews to burst through and take Kyle Orton to the ground.
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