For the first time since Kyle Orton’s benching, the Denver Broncos will play a meaningful game with potential playoff implications rather than simply trying to spoil a rival’s season. It’s an experience many of their young players have yet to enjoy, including Tim Tebow, who has only played in games when the Broncos season was mostly given up on. In a weak AFC West, no team is mathematically out of contention and after leaving Oakland with a win last week, Tebow and the Broncos are right back in the thick of things. Back-to-back road games against division rivals are a good way to test a team’s mettle and if Denver’s read-option offense can carry them to another victory, they’ll suddenly find themselves ahead of Kansas City in the standings. None would be happier than the oft-criticized Tebow.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has the opportunity to review the film from the Denver-Oakland game and better prepare themselves for the Broncos unique (to the NFL at least) offense, which to stop, requires discipline more than anything else. After being blown out at home by the previously winless Dolphins, it would be understandable if the Chiefs have a lot of frustration to release that they’ll look to take out on the Broncos. The Chiefs are the NFL’s streakiest team this season, dropping three games before winning four straight and then collapsing at home against Miami, so who knows what Chiefs team will show up this week. Considering the rivalry, playoff implications, and their embarrassment over last week’s poor showing, we’d expect Kansas City to be focused and play hard in this one.
Will the Broncos be able to hang with the Chiefs’ intensity and pull off two consecutive road wins against division rivals? Here are three matchups that should play a role in determining exactly that.
Broncos runners vs. Chiefs linebackers
The Broncos read-option offense proved to be too difficult to handle for the Raiders last week, with players often losing contain on their side, allowing Tebow or Willis McGahee (+3.2) significant open field to work with. The Raiders simply couldn’t accurately identify who was going to be running with the ball or which way they were running. With a week to study the film, the Chiefs should be better-prepared and display better discipline than the Raiders did last week. In their 3-4 defense, it will come down to outside linebackers Tamba Hali (+4.4 run defense) and Andy Studebaker to set the edge and funnel those perimeter runs back inside. Hali’s importance to this game can’t be understated as he is not only the Chiefs biggest source of pass rush, but he also has to be able to perform his pass rushing duties without giving up position in the run game. The task won’t be as easy to perform as it is write, to say the least. If Hali and Studebaker can keep contain, the Broncos won’t be putting up anywhere near the 298 rushing yards they did a week ago. Inside linebackers Derrick Johnson (+14.4) and Jovan Belcher are more than capable of making plays in the run game if those runs are forced back inside instead of being races to the edge as they were a week ago against Oakland.
Broncos wide receivers vs. Chiefs defensive backs
One way the Chiefs can make their job easier on defense is to take the passing game out of the equation. If they know the run is coming, it’ll be that much easier to make the play. When there’s actually a threat of the pass, Tebow and McGahee are a dangerous pair of weapons running out of the option. With the way Matt Moore dismantled the Chiefs secondary last week, the potential for some big pass plays may be there. As the defense concentrates so hard on the run, they can get mixed up in coverage as the Raiders did last week when Eddie Royal broke free for an uncontested touchdown catch.
Left cornerback Brandon Flowers (+4.6) hasn’t graded negatively in two consecutive games since his rookie year in 2008, so we’d expect him to rebound from a subpar showing last week. His primary assignment will probably be Royal, as he has seen more snaps on the right side than any other position this year. Demaryius Thomas (-2.4) is still waiting to break out like fellow second-year receiver Eric Decker and now in his fourth game of the season, it’s time for him to show something to indicate his selection in the first round wasn’t a mistake. None of these receivers can complain about lack of opportunities, as they see more single-coverage than any other receivers in the league thanks to having Tebow as their quarterback.
Champ Bailey vs. Dwayne Bowe
I wanted to discuss the Broncos pass rush vs. the Chiefs offensive line here, especially after the former did well and the latter played miserably last week, but here’s an individual matchup that’s just too good to resist talking about. True cornerback/receiver individual matchups just don’t happen all that often anymore, so when there is one, and a high-profile one at that, it’s hard not to get excited about it. Bailey (+2.2) is declining slowly, but is still leaps and bounds ahead of most cornerbacks and whatever he loses in speed and athleticism, he makes up for with veteran savvy and unteachable instincts. Bowe (+6.1) on the other hand, is nearing the prime of his career and trying to break through from that class of very good receivers into the class of elite ones. The best part is that these guys aren’t just on the field at the same time, we will actually get to see them go head-to-head time and again as the Broncos used Bailey to shadow Bowe last season and since he’s been used in that way multiple times this season, there’s no reason to think the same won’t happen in this game.
Bailey has only allowed 13 catches in his coverage this year, but they’ve gone for an average of 16.5 yards, the seventh-highest figure amongst cornerbacks. You might not catch a lot of balls going against Bailey, but when you do, chances are it’s a big play. Bowe has forced the most missed tackles of all wideouts with ten, so the fun doesn’t stop once the ball is in his hands.
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