Alright, hands up who thought this game had any chance of being competitive two or three weeks ago? No? Me neither. But the Bills have come back to earth courtesy of two lackluster performances against the New York Jets and the Dallas Cowboys. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (+18.5), while not playing poorly, hasn’t wowed us recently like he did in the first three weeks of the season. Fortunately they still have one of the game's most elusive runners in Fred Jackson (+22.8).
In Miami, the Dolphins have suddenly remembered how to win football games, albeit against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Washington Redskins. Matt Moore (+14.6) has turned in some solid performances at quarterback, including a superb day against the Chiefs two weeks ago.
This represents a good test for both teams. Have the Dolphins really improved? How far have the Bills fallen? We’ll have a pretty good idea of the answers to both those questions when the dust settles in this one. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the three areas to focus on when these two AFC East foes go to work this Sunday.
Eric Pears v Cameron Wake
As with most quarterbacks, getting pressure on Fitzpatrick limits his ability to be successful. He has completed 69% of his passes this season when he isn’t under pressure. That number drops dramatically to 48.1% when under pressure and that makes this matchup all the more important. Eric Pears (-2.4) is not setting the league on fire with his run blocking (-6.0) and the end result leaves a lot to be desired. But through nine games he has allowed just two sacks, three hits and eight pressures as a pass blocker while giving up three penalties in total. This week represents perhaps his toughest challenge yet, however, as he goes head to head with Miami pass rusher Cameron Wake (+20). Coming into this week, Wake has just one game where he has a negative grade as a pass rusher, the Week 6 game on the road at the Jets where he generated no pressure at all. But on the year he has registered six sacks, 11 hits and 29 pressures. Wake has been a shining light on a bad Miami team and he’ll need to be at his best again if the Dolphins are to make it three wins in a row.
Brandon Marshall v Leodis McKelvin/Drayton Florence
Does his mouth worry me sometimes? Yes. But is he Miami best offensive weapon? Absolutely, Brandon Marshall (+1.8) has been worth that hassle so far for the Dolphins. This season he has caught 60.9% of the passes thrown to him for 742 yards. He may only have the two touchdowns, and his nine drops are definitely a concern, but Marshall has caught 15-of-20 passes the past two weeks when he has been targeted, for 204 yards and a touchdown. He seems to be in a nice rhythm with Moore. This week, depending on where he is lined up, he will likely be opposite either Leodis McKelvin or Drayton Florence. Florence (-8.2) has really struggled in coverage this year. Allowing a 69.8% completion percentage on passes thrown at him, and giving up five touchdowns already this year all adds up to a NFL QB Rating of 125.2 when opposing QBs target his coverage. Not good. McKelvin hasn’t fared much better, giving up a 60% completion percentage and three touchdowns in coverage. Both represent a matchup problem for the Bills against Marshall, particularly with the form he’s in just now.
Fred Jackson – Mr Elusive
It’s no secret how highly we rate Fred Jackson’s season so far here at PFF. When looking at backs that have at least 50% of their team's attempts, he's at the top of our Elusive Rating Signature Stat, and by some distance. Jackson has forced a total of 40 missed tackles on rushes and receptions while averaging 3.84 yards after contact. For an example of his ability, look no further than back in Week 2 against the Oakland Raiders. On 2nd-and-3 with 13:36 left in the third quarter, Fitzpatrick turned and handed the ball to Jackson. Racing down the field, Jackson gets to the 30-yard-line before giving the slightest juke, enough to send Matt Giordano to the turf and propel Jackson to the end zone. That all adds up to trouble for a Miami Dolphins defense that features three players with six or more missed tackles.
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