An NFC North encounter to round off the season features both sides finding themselves with nothing to play for. The Bears were firmly in the thick of the playoff hunt until an injury cost them their star quarterback, Jay Cutler, and since that point the injuries have only been mounting, with Matt Forte the latest major piece to go down for the year. Minnesota on the other hand was never at the races this season and languish with a 3-12 record heading into their final game.
The Vikings took themselves out of the running for the number one overall pick in the next draft last week when they beat Washington, and a final win this week could drop them to as far as the sixth overall pick, which would be little short of a disaster for a team with so many holes to fill. Losing Adrian Peterson forces them to lean on the shoulders of Toby Gerhart as their main bellcow in the run game, and their rookie quarterback Christian Ponder returns to the starting lineup this week, after being sidelined with concussion. Chicago are playing for pride and little else, but that may well be enough. Here are three matchups that will heavily influence the outcome.
The Chicago offensive tackles vs. The Vikings defensive ends
Chicago might have the worst starting pair of offensive tackles in the league, and with no Cutler behind them, they look every bit of it. Since Gabe Carimi went down early in the season the Bears have been forced into a rotation of patch-up jobs at right tackle, and none has really successfully plugged the gap. Both Lance Louis and J’Marcus Webb rank in the bottom dozen of offensive tackles we have graded this season and together they have combined for a staggering -45.5 grade. For the Vikings the defensive end position has been one of the few bright spots this season, with Jared Allen leading the league in sacks. Allen specializes in taking sub-par tackles to task and he will likely have a big game. On the other side, Brian Robison has the kind of speed and burst off the ball that could give Louis real trouble in the passing game. The starting pair for Minnesota have combined for a massive 105 total quarterback disruptions on the season, and they are going to be a factor in this game. The exteent to which the Bears’ tackles can keep their quarterback clean will go a long way to dictating the outcome of this game, because Chicago no longer has a passer that can play above the level of his protection.
Christian Ponder vs. Brian Urlacher
Christian Ponder remains a major question mark for the Vikings. He began his stint as starter looking very promising but for the occasional horribly telegraphed throw or decision – exactly what you traditional expect from a rookie – but since then the promise has begun to fade and more of the negative has been rushing to the surface. It is telling that the Vikings look a far more effective offense when Joe Webb is taking snaps than when Ponder does. Eight of Ponder’s twelve interceptions have come from clean pockets with no pressure and just four from plays where he felt heat. The Vikings need for Ponder to avoid the poor decisions and to better read the field and deliver the ball, because this offense just isn’t good enough to overcome major mistakes and turnovers. Brian Urlacher is the best linebacker in football at reading a quarterback’s eyes and dropping underneath the pass he is about to make, often picking it off or deflecting it. He has three interceptions on the season and four more passes defensed and he has allowed a long of just 38 yards into his coverage. There is going to be something of a chess match between the rookie signal caller and the experienced veteran at MLB. If Ponder telegraphs his passes as he has this season, look for Urlacher to get his hands on at least one in the game.
Devin Hester vs. Chris Kluwe and the Vikings coverage units
I’m pinning this on Chris Kluwe because he’s taken the blame for kicking to Devin Hester in the past, but in truth this is Hester against the Vikings’ coverage units. Hester is coming off an ankle injury but is listed as probable for this game, and he traditionally has major success against the Vikings’ special teams, who seem to go on holiday to Yemen every time he catches a punt and they actually have to do their job of covering it. Against Minnesota for his career, Hester has scored three punt return touchdowns, more than against any other team, and one kick return score. He has a punt return average of 16.35 yards, and the Vikings are also the only side in the NFL against whom Hester looks like a legitimate wide receiver. He has scored five receiving touchdowns agaisnt Minnesota, which is four more than he has notched against any other side in the NFL. The Vikings secondary is accepting recruits from the stands at this point, and their coverage units have historically struggled against Hester. For some reason the Vikings have never been able to get a handle on Hester, and he has cost them more than one game in the past. They need to show up and avoid allowing him take one to the house for them to stay in this game.
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