There’s a tempered excitement running through the Motor City as the Chicago Bears come to town. As one of the last unbeaten teams, Lions fans and the Detroit media find themselves having to deal with an unfamiliar emotion…optimism. In Detroit, there’s a sense that nobody’s quite ready to let themselves truly believe that the Lions are as good as they’ve been playing, and there’s enough warts on this team to warrant the skepticism. Detroit has yet to play well for four full quarters, their running game leaves much to be desired, and their defensive line hasn’t been the dominating force that everyone expected.
.
A win against their division rivals, who’ve made a ritual out of pummeling them in every game since 2007, may have Lions faithful fully believing that their team is a legitimate playoff contender.
.
Meanwhile, the Bears seem mired in a bit of an identity crisis. No one’s quite sure what to make of this team, and it seems like their players aren’t quite sure themselves. They talk with uncertainty about what kind of offense they want to be and the vaunted, blue-collar defense that has long been Chicago’s calling card has been hemorrhaging yards at an alarming pace lately. That said, this team is 2-2 on the season and a win against the Lions would put them right back in the thick of things in the NFC North.
.
Here are three matchups that could very well decide the outcome:
.
.
1) “The Big Three” vs. The Bears “D”
.
Like the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990's, the Lions appear to be developing their own “big three” on offense. While everyone else’s performance is generally mediocre or downright bad (especially on the offensive line) Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew have been the lone standouts. Without them, it’s likely this team would be on the losing end of a four game streak, instead of being undefeated at 4-0.
.
Stafford has been instrumental in his team’s second-half comebacks, and what might be surprising to some, is his accuracy. His completion percentage is 62.5% – good for only 16th best in the league, but what you don’t see reflected in that number are the drops (12), throwaways (12) and spiked passes (0). Using Accuracy Percentage, one of our Signature Stats, to account for these factors, Stafford jumps up to sixth place with 75.2%.
.
With that being said, that accuracy is not going to do much good without some performers on the receiving end. That’s where Johnson and Pettigrew come in as there’s already talk of Johnson threatening Randy Moss’ 2007 touchdown reception record (23). After four games, Johnson already has eight touchdowns, and we have him as our second-highest-rated receiver (+7.0) behind Wes Welker. Pettigrew is also performing at an elite level, and his game is extremely well-rounded. He’s the only tight end in the league with positive grading for receiving, run blocking and pass blocking.
.
The Bears’ defense could have their hands full managing this three-headed monster. Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have both been strong in coverage this year at linebacker, but the Bears cornerbacks have been up and down depending on the game. The Bears also have had a revolving door at safety due to injuries, as Craig Stetz (-1.5), Major Wright (-3.2), and Brandon Merriweather (-1.9) have all failed to impress in pass coverage. The Bears are hoping that Chris Harris will make it back this week (hamstring) to stabilize the position.
.
2) Julius Peppers vs. Jeff Backus
.
Some folks are wondering on the whereabouts of Julius Peppers lately. Peppers has consistently been graded out as one of the league’s top defensive ends for us over the past three years, and in 2010 he put up dominant performances week in and week out. This year he just hasn’t been showing up.
.
Yes, he’ll make a play here and there, like the gritty punt block he made crawling through the Panther’s offensive line, but the rest of the time we’re just not seeing the Peppers we’re accustomed to. He’s struggling most in the run game (-1.5) where we’ve seen him getting washed out of plays or being to slow to get off of blocks.
.
A good example of that was on a screen pass last week during a Carolina drive at the end of the first half; Peppers had dropped into coverage, was slow reacting to the screen, and then couldn’t get off left guard Travelle Wharton’s downfield block in time to catch Jonathon Stewart, who rumbled 20 yards and into field goal range for Carolina.
.
The man who will see the most of Peppers this week, will be veteran left tackle Jeff Backus, who has been a liability (-5.4) for the Lions in pass protection this year. He was absolutely abused by Jared Allen of the Vikings in week three, and he followed it up with a miserable outing against Dallas’ rushing linebackers. Case in point was a third and 10 play in the red zone with 4:18 remaining in the second quarter. Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware gave Backus a quick fake to the inside and Backus lunged, leaving a clear outside path for Ware to pressure the quarterback. Stafford's quick throw ended with an incompletion and the Lions settled for a field goal.
.
Look for Backus to try to regain his footing by keeping Peppers from getting noticed for yet another week.
.
3) Matt Forte vs. the Detroit Defensive Line
.
For a defensive line that was dominant at times in 2010, much was expected this year with the return of defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and the addition of rookie first round pick, defensive tackle Nick Fairley. Through four games, Vanden Bosch has hurt the Lions more than he has helped (-4.5) them, and with a broken foot, Fairley has yet to see the field. Run defense has been what’s gotten this group in trouble the most, with much-hyped tackle Ndamukong Suh showing he’s not yet a complete player. The Lions have to like his two sacks and combination of 13 QB hits and pressures, but he has not played well against the run (-5.2).
.
That bodes well for the Bears, especially after they rediscovered their dormant running game last week against With the Panthers. Matt Forte exploded with 205 yards rushing (106 after contact) on 25 attempts for an 8.2 yards per rush average. Whether it’s running or receiving, Forte has been the Bears’ lone bright spot on offense this season, so expect Mike Martz to keep feeding him the ball.
.
.
Follow our main Twitter feed : @ProFootbalFocus
.
.
.
.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.