Remember when Thanksgiving football was a bigger turkey that the one on the dinner table? It wasn’t that long ago. But this year we have three games with five genuine playoff contenders, and the best of the bunch – in my humble opinion – is the one dubbed the “Har-Bowl”.
Far be it from this to just be about two brothers coaching against each other in the NFL for the first time, the Harbaugh’s each bring a team with a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs into this game. The 49ers have surprised us all by not only running away with the NFC West, but picking up big wins against teams outside of their much-maligned division as well.
The Ravens' up-and-down season is back on the up again after a big divisional win over Cincinnati, the good news being that they have slipped-up when playing lesser opponents. That won’t be the issue this week as they face arguably their toughest test of the season so far. So, with that in mind, let’s look at the three areas to focus on in this Turkey Day encounter.
Torrey Smith v Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown
Carlos Rogers (+9.2) has proven to be an outstanding free agent pick-up for the 49ers and is enjoying the best season of his career so far. Teams haven’t shied away from throwing at Rogers; through 10 games he has been targeted 75 times for a completion percentage of 57.3%. He has given up two touchdowns (including one on a pass he was actually able to get his hands on against Larry Fitzgerald last Sunday), but has also reeled in five interceptions and has broken up another seven passes. The one blemish against him this season has been that he has allowed a completion of 30 yards or more in three of the last five games.
His partner at cornerback, Tarell Brown (+1.0), has a nearly identical completion percentage allowed (57.4%) on the 54 passes thrown into his coverage. He hasn’t picked-off any passes, although he has broken-up six while allowing three touchdowns. Similar to Rogers, he has shown a vulnerability to the big play, giving up a completion of 20 yards or more in half of the games he has played. That vulnerability is a big problem when you are going up against Torrey Smith (-1.3).
Smith had a problem catching the ball on the road in Pittsburgh this year (before catching the winning score, of course), but outside of that game, he has dropped just one pass. While Smith is not yet a polished all-around receiver, he is averaging an eye-popping 20.3 yards per catch, best amongst all receivers playing 50% of their team's offensive snaps. I saw something from Torrey Smith this week that showed me he can be much more than just a guy who runs past defenders on long bombs, however. With Baltimore driving at the end of the first half, Smith caught a short pass from Flacco on 3rd-and-10. After catching the ball he sped forward with an incredible burst that would have seen him go all the way to the end zone were it not for Adam Jones grabbing him by the hair.
San Francisco’s Offensive Line v Baltimore’s Pass Rush
When you think of the Ravens' pass rush, the first name that springs to mind is Terrell Suggs (+23.1). For good reason, Suggs has shown in the past that he is a dominant pass rusher. But while Suggs’ run defense is at the usual high level, his pass rush has left a lot to be desired lately with just seven pressures in the last three games. Enter two players flying under the radar. Paul Kruger (+6.3) is finally becoming the player the Ravens thought they had when they drafted him in the second round of the 2009 draft. He's collected five sacks and eight pressures in the last five games. Elsewhere on the defensive line, rookie Pernell McPhee (+9.4) has given the Ravens more than they could have expected from a fifth-round pick with his five sacks, three hits and 12 pressures. That’s a concern for a 49ers offensive line with just one player, left guard Mike Iupati (+5.8) with a positive grade as a pass blocker. The good news is that they are coming off a game where they didn’t allow quarterback Alex Smith to be knocked down (hit or sacked) at all. A repeat of that on Thursday would go a long way to helping the 49ers pick up the win.
Steady Smith
The battle highlighted above is particularly key with how well Alex Smith (+32.1) is playing, far from being the player who would hold the 49ers back like many (read: me) thought he would, Smith has been a key part of their fantastic season so far. Our fifth-rated quarterback this year, Smith has completed 62.4% of his passes and thrown 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Two of those interceptions have come when he has been under pressure and, while he has still managed to throw four touchdowns here, his completion percentage is just 43.2%. With the strength of the 49ers’ defense, Smith just needs to be efficient and not make mistakes to keep them in most games.
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