Since their inaugural season in 2002 opened with a win, there haven’t been too many hopeful moments for the only NFL franchise that hasn’t made it to the playoffs. The start of last season saw them as many people’s favorite “surprise” playoff team, but by midseason those hopes were dashed by a defense with bigger holes than the Titanic.
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After a defensive focused offseason – hiring a new coordinator, two key free agent acquisitions, and spending their first five draft picks on defensive players – consider Houston’s hopes renewed. Could this finally be the year the Texans play more than golf during the NFL postseason?
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Five Reasons to be Confident:
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1. Matt Schaub Brings Consistency
Having a quarterback you can rely on is the most important thing if you want your NFL team to be relevant year-in and year-out. In the past two seasons (the first two that he has been fully healthy), Matt Schaub has thrown for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns and in this 2010 study, showed himself to be an efficient deep passer. While leading the Texans to Top 5 finishes in total offense the past two seasons, Schaub has proven himself as a quarterback the Texans can rely on to get to the playoffs. But if he really wants to be considered with the upper-echelon of quarterbacks that his statistics put him with, he is going to have to prove himself not just capable of making the playoffs but actually make the playoffs.
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2. Free Agent Acquisition No.1
The Houston Texans’ secondary was bad last season. Really bad. They were dead last in passing yards allowed per game and let up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Not one player registered a positive pass defense grade, and only Glover Quinn finished with a positive overall rating (+1.2) which was boosted by his strong performance against the run. Jonathan Joseph – who finished with a +3.0 grade last season and a +9.5 coverage grade the season before – instantly walks into the starting cornerback role and should prove to be a drastic improvement. In his last fully healthy season, Joseph had 19 pass disruptions (six interceptions and 13 passes defended) in 108 targets; all of Houston’s cornerbacks combined for 26 pass disruptions (nine interceptions and 17 passes defended) in 286 targets last season.
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3. Free Agent Acquisition No.2
I already mentioned that the Texans secondary was bad last year, right? It didn’t end with the cornerbacks. None of the safeties who played last year for the Texans ended up with a positive pass defense grade. None of them even ended with a positive overall grade. So, enter free agent Danieal Manning, a safety that rarely makes mistakes and finished with a +8.7 overall grade in 2010. Manning will be an upgrade at the position both against the run and pass, but most importantly the pass. Each of Houston’s primary safeties – Eugene Wilson and Bernard Pollard – had half the number of positive games against the pass as Manning did in 2010.
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4. Solid Offensive Line
Earlier I mentioned that the Texans haven’t made the playoffs since the franchise started, but one thing is for sure, the offensive line has certainly improved in that time. The inaugural Texans offensive line allowed David Carr to get sacked so many times, he was probably afraid his wife might even tackle him when he got home. The current edition of the offensive line finished second in PFF’s overall offensive line rankings after finishing 3rd in run blocking, 4th in pass blocking, and 4th in penalties. They were the catalyst to Arian Foster going from undrafted to leading the league in rushing and they return each of their starters from last year, all who are 30 years old or younger. This line has the potential to be good for a while.
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5. Defensive-focused Draft Picks
Houston spent their top five draft picks on defensive players, most notably J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed in the first and second rounds. In the new 3-4 defensive scheme being brought in by Wade Phillips, having top talent at his disposal to improve an ineffective defense from a year ago is a good thing. Particularly Watt who – while somewhat thinner (now at least) than a traditional 3-4 end – has used this preseason to flash the athleticism that made him so successful at Wisconsin last year. If he can be stout against the run, then expect Phillips to draw up some schemes that will take advantage of Watt’s speed on the end.
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Five Reasons to be Concerned
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1. Mario Williams at Linebacker
Position change … it’s a topic often debated with athletic quarterbacks when they are drafted, but rarely with a perennial Pro-Bowler like Mario Williams. That said, we’re two preseason games in and that’s exactly what we’re looking at. Khaled wrote an article after the drafting of J.J. Watt which analyzed the snaps Williams played at linebacker and showed a slight drop-off in QB disruptions (sacks, pressures, hits) when he played in that spot. I guess the plan is to turn Williams into a DeMarcus Ware-style outside linebacker, and I don’t doubt the physical ability of Williams to be able to do so. The reality is, however, that there is more room for decline than improvement for a player who has been as successful as he has been. I think the Texans new-look defense could still be successful even if he is to be less productive in his new position, but I can’t imagine Williams would be too thrilled by that proposition.
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2. Can Arian Foster Keep it Up?
It’s not just a matter of the hamstring injury that Foster has been dealing with that begs the question if he can keep it up. Foster benefitted from some of the best run blocking in the NFL last season. He only finished 32nd in our Elusive Rating, which is PFF’s way of measuring how many of the yards were actually a result of the running back as opposed to his blocking. It’s not that I expect the blocking to fall off the table – as mentioned earlier, all the starters return – I just think there are questions as to whether he can be as effective as he was last season. On the bright side, only five running backs were better than Foster last year at forcing missed tackles so he might be fine even if he has to deal with a slight drop-off in blocking.
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3. Where’s the Beef?
I have already talked a lot about the position change that Mario Williams is making, but really all three of the remaining defensive lineman are changing positions, too. PFF’s Sam Monson wrote extensively about defensive lineman prototypes a few weeks ago, and I would say each of the Texans three primary lineman are slighter than their respective prototypes. Particularly when you consider Shaun Cody will play nose tackle this season. Vince Wilfork was the prototype for the nose tackle position in Sam’s article (who will ironically be playing Cody’s old position this season), and if you just Google a picture of the two players you’ll understand why there should be some doubts about whether Cody will be able to hold the point of attack. This is compounded by the fact that Cody has finished with a negative run defense grade in the previous three seasons.
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4. Two Key Free Agents – is it Enough?
I already spent some time talking about how the acquisitions of Danieal Manning and Jonathan Joseph will be important to improving the secondary that was plain awful last year. So I think a valid concern is whether those two signings are enough. The Texans’ best defender from last year, Glover Quin, has been moved to safety alongside Manning. So, who will take the position opposite Jonathan Joseph? Most likely it will be Kareem Jackson, the Texans’ first-round pick from a year ago, but he had his fair share of problems to say the least. He started playing better toward the end of the season, but Jackson finished in the Bottom 4 in the following categories: yards allowed, yards per catch allowed, and passer rating on passes targeted at him. Not a glowing endorsement for your No. 2 cornerback.
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5. Andre Johnson’s Backups
I think that questioning Andre Johnson’s toughness should be an untouchable subject. While most NFL players do their best to play minimally in the preseason, Johnson comes back a few weeks later after gruesomely dislocating his finger to put 100 yards receiving before the end of the first half in his preseason debut. The reality, though, is that the Texans can’t solely rely on Johnson to carry the receiving corps. Though he’s proven willing to play through injury, the key word there is injury. What would the Texans do without Johnson? Kevin Walter is reliable and Jacoby Jones has flashed potential, but at this stage, if Johnson were to go down, the Texans’ offense wouldn’t come close to the numbers it has put up the past few seasons. An answer to this problem won’t just walk through the Texans’ door, so until Jones makes the improvement many were hoping for last season, Houston fans just better pray Johnson doesn’t wind up with an injury that even his toughness won’t let him play through.
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The Texans only made two really big free agent acquisitions, but given their holes from last season, they were really big free agent acquisitions. They have been a team on the cusp, and if their new defensive focus can lift the play of the defense to the level of their offense, then expect the franchise playoff drought to be a thing of the past.
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Follow Rodney on Twitter: @PFF_RodneyHart … and be sure to follow our main Twitter feed as well: @ProFootbalFocus
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