Around this time last year, I wrote about the good qualities and the bad qualities of the Indianapolis Colts. Almost a year later, I find myself resisting the urge to copy and paste my previous article, as the Colts find themselves in a remarkably similar situation as they did last season; they have a bunch of outstanding players on the field, and not much else.
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In the past, those star players have been enough to guide Indianapolis atop the AFC South, but with the division as tough as it’s ever been, the Colts’ lack of depth may finally catch-up to them.
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Five Reasons to be Confident
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1. In Peyton Manning they Trust
So long as the Colts have Peyton Manning on the field, they’re in business. Despite fielding a team that lacks talent and depth at a number of different positions, Indianapolis finds a way to keep on winning. Why? Well it’s because Manning is just that good. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Eli’s older brother has been our top ranked quarterback over the past three years, as year after year he has made practice squad players look like quality NFL starters. Point and case, Jacob Tamme and Blair White.
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2. The Dynamic Duo at Defensive End
Over the past three years, both Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have ranked in the top ten of our pass rushing productivity analysis, where their grade is measured relative to how often they rush the passer. Having two defensive ends that can go out and make life difficult for an opposing quarterback is simply too hard for most teams to stop.
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3. Tailor made for Jamaal Anderson
It’s an an underrated move that could provide a big upgrade. While the former Falcon never lived up to his draft status, Jamaal Anderson could the hybrid defensive linemen that Indianapolis has been looking for. How so? Well you only have to take a look at how they tried to turn Keyunta Dawson and Raheem Brock into hybrid defensive linemen, when neither player managed to rise to the occasion. Anderson was our sixth ranked defensive end against the run, and has the ability to be an effective pass rusher if used correctly.
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4. Options at Receiver
It doesn’t hurt that Peyton Manning’s throwing to some extremely talented receivers. While he never seems to get the praise that he deserves, Reggie Wayne just keeps on producing big numbers year in and year out. Throw in the fact that they now have a healthy Austin Collie, who was on pace to pick up 1,757 yards before he went down with an injury, a healthy Dallas Clark, who was our number two receiving tight end from 2009, and Pierre Garcon, and you have one of the NFL’s most lethal receiving corps.
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5. They Just Win
Each year, you convince yourself that this is the year that the Colts’ over reliance on Peyton Manning comes back to haunt them. Each year, you soon find out how wrong you were. The Colts don’t have the amount of talent that other top teams have, but their ability to move the ball through the air and pressure opposing quarterbacks has proven to be a winning one. Simply put, Indianapolis knows what it takes to win?
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Five Reasons to be Concerned
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1. A Troublesome Neck Injury
No team has a bigger drop-off from starting to back-up quarterback than the Colts, and with Manning coming off of offseason neck injury, there’s a real possibility that at some point during the season we’ll be seeing a quarterback other than Manning take snaps for the Colts. Even if that scenario doesn't happen, the very thought of it should serve as a reminder of how unprepared Indianapolis is without their 35 year old starting quarterback.
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2. A Troublesome Defensive Tackle Pairing
If you go back and look at the second half of the Colts’ playoff loss to the New York Jets, you’ll notice just how easy the Jets were able to move Indianapolis’ defensive tackles. While getting rid of Danier Muir is an addition by subtraction in and of itself, it wouldn’t have hurt to have actually signed a defensive tackle to fill his vacant roster spot. Fili Moala, who is a year removed from finishing the season as our 61st ranked defensive tackle, is penciled in to be the Colts' starter. Moala offers little in run support and doesn’t generate much pressure, which makes him a perfect example of what the Colts have had at DT over the past few years. None of the guys behind him provide much in the way of an upgrade given what they have (or haven’t) been able to produce throughout their NFL careers.
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3. Cornerback Issues
Let’s be honest, you’d rather not be starting Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers at cornerback. Even with a pass rush that limits the amount of time spent in coverage, neither player leaves you with much confidence as they both combined for a terrible -20.7 grade in coverage last season. Lacey’s 75.9% of pass plays allowed was the third highest in the league. Combine that with Powers’ 65.4% and Indianapolis’ defense appears to be quite susceptible to Houston's passing game.
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4. Injuries
The Colts are going to be relying on a number of players coming off the back of season ending injuries. We’re looking at guys all the way from Peyton Manning, to Austin Collie and even Dallas Clark. The Colts appear to be quite a brittle team heading into the season, which may expose their lack of depth.
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5. A Tougher AFC South
Eventually, one of the other three AFC South team is going to realize that the Colts are no longer the powerhouse that they once were. The Houston Texans have the most talented roster in the division, and the Jaguars have made some nice improvements at a couple of different positions. While Indianapolis’ star players have helped them hold onto the division in the past, the fact that they played in one of the AFC’s weaker divisions didn’t hurt their chances at making the playoffs. Now more so than ever, it looks like the power in the AFC South is about to change.
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I want to be daring. I want to tell you that the Colts have ridden the Manning train for too long, and now it’s going to be their undoing. I want to tell you that relying on one player is bound to catch up with you. While I’d like to tell you that, history as taught me one thing, and that’s never bet against the Colts. With that being said, Indianapolis was wobbly last year, and it will be interesting to see if that was the precursor to something far more drastic.
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Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled … and be sure to follow our main Twitter feed as well: @ProFootbalFocus
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