Turns out our game review wizards are strikingly mediocre at looking into the future and predicting winners. Sure, some will blame it on the NFL's “any given Sunday”, pride-in-parity, every game is a toss-up thing, but I prefer to see them as lacking in this area … they can't be good at everything, right?
Undaunted, they return from their near 50-50 weekend to enter another set of calls. (Near even because Sam managed to pick up three of the four games on last week's slate, setting him just ahead of the other three who each went 2-2.) Again they'll reach back into their vault of game review notes to apply some reason to their choices and try to convince us that they're not just throwing darts.
Who've you got in these four Divisional games?
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Ben Stockwell: The early game on Sunday is probably getting the least press of the four that make up Divisional Weekend, but I think it might produce the best game of the four between two evenly matched teams. Solid but unspectacular quarterbacks, check for both. Running game powered by two quality running backs, check for both. One receiver returning from injury to add a much needed extra dimension to the offense, check for both. Stifling defense, check for both. These two teams are the toughest to split and should produce a back-and-forth defensive game. The first quarter could prove crucial as whether the Ravens start slow off of the bye or if the Texans start nervous again may allow the other team to get out to a fast start and force the opposition to chase. The difference in this game I think is simply experience and big game temperament. Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco has been poor this season, but he has raised his game on the big stage where previously he has shrunk away. This, in combination with the Ravens having won games in the last three post seasons–they know how to win in the playoffs–will just give them the edge and give them their first home playoff win since New Year’s Eve 2000. Pick: Baltimore.
Sam Monson: The Texans have been able to survive despite going deep into the bench at QB because they are set up for the QB to be a smaller part of the equation than most teams. They have an impressive D, some good runners, and a strong O-line. Baltimore has the kind of team that can render all of that useless. The Baltimore D on their day can still wreak havoc, and come playoff time I suspect they will be at their best, especially having had a week off to prepare and nurse some injuries. I really like the Texans this season and feel bad for them that they lost their quarterback at just the wrong time, but I think this is the week it finally catches up with them in a major way and derails their first playoff campaign. Baltimore will be able to get enough going on offense to overcome what the Texans can offer against the stingy Baltimore defense. Pick: Ravens by 10.
Khaled Elsayed: With Matt Schaub in the lineup? I’d probably go for the Texans given I really think their defense can limit what the Ravens do on offense. But with T.J. Yates at QB I just don’t like their chances. Not a knock on Yates who has done a good job avoiding mistakes, but he’ll need to make consistent plays to set up the running game. Can’t see that happening. Pick: Ravens
Neil Hornsby: Joe Flacco has had a horrible year. Yes I know the Ravens are in the playoffs but he’s our 29th–ranked QB and their success is despite him, not because of him. I guess that just goes to show how well the rest of the team has played particularly on defense, where some subtle changes to the way they use Terrell Suggs (playing more linebacker as opposed to DE) and getting borderline Pro Bowl play from Lardarius Webb has been huge. On offense, they have a solid line and consequently superior rushing attack which I think should be enough. It’s not that they’ll score many points against an excellent Texans defense, but the Bengals showed the way to attack them last week and the Ravens should score enough points to overcome whatever the massively underwhelming T.J. Yates can muster. Pick: Texans 10 – Ravens 23
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Ben Stockwell: Now comes the game where you almost have to throw logic out of the window and simply say, ‘can Tebow do it again?’ If you look at last week’s game in terms of efficiency it was more of the same from Tebow, completion percentage below 50% and he again depended upon the big play. However, Pittsburgh kept offering them and, particularly in the first quarter, he made the necessary big plays beating solid deep coverage with some excellent throws. Will New England offer those same chances? Certainly the Patriots defense isn’t of the same caliber as Pittsburgh’s, but they have seen Tebow before and presumably won’t provide the chance to make those big plays down the field. Tebow is still ineffective in the short and intermediate areas and presumably Bill Belicheck and his staff will put out a defense that forces Tebow into these throws. The Broncos defense couldn’t match up to the Patriot offense at Mile High in their regular season encounter and I fully expect the Patriots to score 30+ points and make the Broncos chase them in this game, something I don’t think they can do. Pick: Patriots.
Sam Monson: This game is really interesting because I think it will either be a close affair, or a comfortable walkover for New England, but nothing in between. Tim Tebow showed last week what many doubted, that he is at least capable of being the QB the Broncos need him to be in order for them to succeed and win against good teams. The Steelers made things easy for him, giving him single-covered receivers down the field to try and hit, but he took advantage and made them pay. I think the Patriots will attack Tebow in different ways, but they will still dare him to beat them with his arm and not the ground game. Tebow may have to show a different side of him this week, the ability to accurately and consistently hit his receivers on conventionally easier underneath routes to keep the chains moving and the scoreboard ticking over. The Patriots steamrolled the Denver defense the first time the two sides met, and if they can do the same thing again I can't see any way the Broncos can get enough going on offense to keep pace. Pick: Patriots by two scores.
Khaled Elsayed: After the shock of last Sunday wore off, I soon realized that as good as Tebow was, things likely won’t be quite so easy against New England. In fact I can see the Patriots putting up a good amount of points even though I’ll be surprised if the Broncos don’t keep it competitive. I feel almost stupid betting against Tebow but, Pick: Patriots
Neil Hornsby: I fully accept that on the back of my ridiculously inaccurate prediction about the Broncos last week, anyone reading this will be doing so for comedy value alone. However, I'm taking the moral low ground; I’m blaming the Steelers for my debacle. Not so much for trying the cover zero approach but because they persisted with it. Tebow was throwing anything deep with pinpoint accuracy yet the stuff less than 10 yards still had the trajectory of a wounded penguin and still there was limited adjustment. Think New England hasn't learnt from that? No, neither do I and just as in the regular season the Patriots proved too good, so they will again. No slip-ups this time please Bill. Pick: Broncos 16 – Patriots 31
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New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers
Ben Stockwell: This game could go one of two ways, either the 49er defense shows itself to be one of the great defenses of the last decade and puts the clamps on the Saints’ offense and we have a real classic of a playoff game or the Saints offense shows that the defenses simply can’t matchup to the top offenses and they run away with it. The 49ers put the clamps on New Orleans last year in Week 2 but still lost, so they can take confidence from their ability to hang with New Orleans even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The thing that swings the game in New Orleans’ favor for me, though, is that they simply have too many quality players on offense and have the ability to change their spots and play a different style of offense if the game dictates it. If their wide open passing game is clamped-down, their offensive line and running backs are good enough to take the lead and put out a balanced attack. That ability to play in different ways with so many dangerous threats just tips the game in New Orleans’ favor for me and they’ll take their first road playoff win in franchise history. Pick: Saints.
Sam Monson: The 49ers have a few things going for them in this game. They're at home in the playoffs, that's usually a good start. They're forcing Drew Brees and the Saints offense to play outside, away from the track-day comforts of a dome. They have one of the league's best defenses and a few of the league's real standout players on defense this season. The problem is, I'm just not sure it's going to be enough. I don't think you can stop the Saints' offense, you can only hope to slow it down. I think they can probably slow it down, but not enough to allow their offense to win the race and score more points. In order for the 49ers to win they would have to have a near flawless game themselves on offense, keep the ball and then hope to slow the Saints just enough that they can sneak ahead and stay there, and I'm just not sure they can get it done. I'm particularly looking forward to seeing the matchup between Justin Smith and Carl Nicks on the left side of the Saints O-line. Pick: Saints by 7.
Khaled Elsayed: Possibly my favorite matchup of the week. On one hand you have the best offense in the league, on the other, the best defense. This is what football is all about. I go back to early last year when the Saints beat the 49ers in a close game. In my mind you’ve got a team in San Francisco that has improved in near enough every area since then, so I can see them slowing down the seemingly unstoppable New Orleans offense. That said I think they lose this game because the offense just doesn’t quite do enough against a Gregg Williams defense that I think will make just enough plays. Pick: Saints
Neil Hornsby: Strength versus Strength, weakness versus weakness. The Saints offense normally manages to overcome some shockingly bad stuff from its defense but this time they’ll be tested because the 49ers have the best defense in the league. I don’t think they’ll stop Brees but they will slow him and I can see that leading to a few forced throws. I doubt catching the dropped interceptions would have saved the Lions in the Wild Card game but if he persists, and the 49ers catch those errors, I see an upset. In fact I see an upset anyway; the Saints have no pass rush to exploit mediocre 49er pass protection and I think in a close game the home-field advantage is telling. Pick Saints 24 – 49ers 27
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New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Ben Stockwell: This game should take the title of the highest scoring game of Divisional Weekend as the meticulous Packer offense faces off with a potentially explosive Giants’ passing attack coming up against a Packer secondary leaking yards at an astonishing rate. This game affords us the matchup of two MVP candidates in the shape of Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers and the quarterback who has the better game this weekend could prove decisive. The Giants have certainly built momentum in recent weeks, but who have they really beaten? After losing to a bad Redskins team in Week 15 they beat a Jets team that has hit the self-destruct button, a Cowboys team that can’t handle the big stage, and a Falcons team that failed to disprove its doubters about their ability to play with all eyes on them. The Giants do raise their game for the big occasion and they will test the Packers, but ultimately I think the Packers will just have too much. Aaron Rodgers has this offense humming and the Giants will need a monumental game from their defensive line to slow the Packers offense enough for them to come away with a win here. Pick: Packers.
Sam Monson: OK, here it is, my upset pick. I can't say there's a huge amount of logic to it, but let me have a go at presenting some anyway. The last time the two sides met Green Bay came away with a 38-35 win on the back of a late field goal in a game the Giants will feel they could have won. The game swung on a few very close reviews and officiating calls all of which went against the Giants (not necessarily incorrectly, but still …). Since that game the Giants have been on a run, and Eli Manning in particular has been playing much better. The current Giants stretch reminds me a lot of 2007 where they were able to step up from mediocrity for a five game burst that also went through Lambeau and culminated in a Super Bowl win. Their D-line is starting to fire on all cylinders and Rodgers can look mortal when his protection breaks down. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have the playmaking skills to take it to a Green Bay secondary that has been a weak spot all season, and their running game can move the ball on the ground. Did I convince you? No? Well me neither to tell you the truth, but it just feels like an upset in the making to me. Pick: Giants by a field goal at the death – Vengeance!
Khaled Elsayed: I look at the Giants' defense and think to myself they’re just not quite good enough to deal with all the receiving weapons the Packers have. That means it’s all on Eli Manning, and I’m tempted to say he continues his excellent year with a mesmerizing display … but I can’t. He needs to be near perfect to beat Rodgers and I don’t think he will be. Pick: Packers
Neil Hornsby: OK, here it is–another upset. The boys in blue have run this course (well almost) before and I like the way they match up with Green Bay. The Packers pass rush can be a feeble affair; usually predicated on Clay Matthews and if the Giants give Kareem McKenzie as much help as they gave David Diehl against John Abraham last week, then he could be nullified. On the other side of the ball I really didn't like what I saw from Chad Clifton in week 17. He looked so far off the pace it was a relief when they removed him after 25 snaps. And that was against Kyle Vanden Bosch. Now he’s not a bad player but he is not Jason Pierre-Paul or Osi Umenyiora any more. It will be fantastic and hopefully a game for the ages but I think the Giants will prevail. Pick: Giants 28 – Packers 27
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