I followed my 2-1 record in Week 9 with a disappointing 1-2 betting card in Week 10, bringing my overall betting record to 17-16 this year. Hopefully, I can bounce back this week.
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Every week, I look at who has the edge in these five categories: quarterback, defense, offensive talent, play in the trenches and coaching.
Let’s get to my favorite bets of NFL Week 11.
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) over Kanas City Chiefs
|Passer Rating When Clean||121.1||109.4|
|Passer Rating Under Pressure||80.2||66.7|
|Big-Time Throw %||5.4%||3.2%|
|Turnover-Worthy Play %||2.3%||3.1%|
Dak Prescott has played much better than Patrick Mahomes thus far this season, as Prescott has led the Cowboys to the top of the NFC while Mahomes and the Chiefs have been fighting to stay afloat in the AFC. Prescott boasts better marks in PFF grade, passer rating when clean, passer rating under pressure, big-time throw percentage and turnover-worthy play percentage — five of the most stable metrics for evaluating quarterback performance.
The Cowboys offense enters a hostile, outdoor environment in Kansas City, but I am not concerned because Dallas possesses a better ground game and defense than the Chiefs. The Cowboys' rushing grade stands at 78.5 (16th-best in the NFL) while the Chiefs' sits at just 66.5 (27th). In addition, the Cowboys defense possesses a 64.0 overall grade (21st) while the Chiefs defense has a 58.8 overall grade (27th).
Nevertheless, the deciding factor in this game may be the turnover differential, where Dallas has performed significantly better this season, boasting a +5 turnover differential while the Chiefs have an abysmal -8 mark.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) over the New York Jets
The Dolphins defense is coming off of an impressive performance against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, where it ran Cover 0 on 32.9% of Jackson's dropbacks (24 total times). This week, Miami's defense has a much easier task versus the Jets‘ anemic offense, which has the 27th-highest team-offense grade (66.0) in the NFL this season.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense should be able to move the ball and score points against a Jets team that has PFF's lowest-graded defense (41.9) in the NFL.
Joe Flacco will start for the first time this season against a hungry and fast Dolphins defense.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
|PFF Passing Grade||83.9||56.5|
|Average Depth Of Target||7.5||7.1|
|Adjusted Completion %||77.1||74.6|
|Big-Time Throw %||3.4%||3.1%|
|Turnover-Worthy Play %||1.7%||3.8%|
Even though he's struggled a bit recently, Justin Herbert is still a much better quarterback than Ben Roethlisberger, which is the primary reason why the Chargers have the advantage in this matchup against the Steelers.
The Steelers will be missing critical pieces — edge defender T.J. Watt (hip/knee) and cornerback Joe Haden (foot) — on the defensive side of the ball. This should give Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi the opportunity to dial up plays to attack the Steelers defense downfield.
With the Chargers' struggles on offense recently, a good offensive performance against the Steelers should quiet some of the noise surrounding Lombardi's job security.
Darius Butler is a former NFL free safety. He was drafted by the New England Patriots in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft. He has also played for the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts.