NFL Week 10 Betting: Darius Butler's favorite bets of the week

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) hands off the ball to Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) on Thursday, Nov. 4, 2021, during a game against the New York Jets at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

I followed a disappointing 1-2 record in Week 8 with a bounceback  2-1 betting card in Week 9, bringing my overall betting record to 16-14 this year. Hopefully, my luck continues this week.

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Every week, I look at who has the edge in these five categories: quarterback, defense, offensive talent, play in the trenches and coaching.

Let’s get to my favorite bets of NFL Week 10.

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars

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I usually stay away from big point-spreads at this point in the season, but I am confident that my Colts handle business this week!

The Colts offense is firing on all cylinders right now, ranking third in expected points added per play (0.114) since Week 6.

Carson Wentz is making big plays, as he's second in touchdown passes (10) and fifth in big-time throws (seven) over the last four weeks. The Colts offensive line coming together as a unit, ranking seventh in pass-blocking efficiency since Week 5. And Jonathan Taylor, who is PFF's third-highest graded RB, is dominating alongside change-of-pace back Nyheim Hines, who accumulated over 100 total yards last week.

The AFC is wide open, and a Colts win could get them into the mix. I expect them to handle business at home once again.

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protect your family with fast, free will.

New England Patriots (ML) over Cleveland Browns

The Patriots have been finding different ways to win almost every Week. Their offense hasn't played well in their last couple of games, but they are playing good-enough complementary football to win.

I am betting on the Patriots defense to be the difference once again. I expect the Patriots to load the box to slow down Cleveland's ground game, which ranks eighth in PFF grade. I know Baker Mayfield was the third-highest graded QB (89.9) and recorded the second-most big-time throws (four) in Week 9, but I can’t see him walking out of Foxboro with a win on Sunday.

Quarterback comparison
Metric Jones Mayfield
PFF Grade 83.0 76.1
Passer Rating When Clean 95.6 102.4
Passer Rating Under Pressure 73.2 87.5
Big-Time Throw % 4.4% 5.9%
Turnover-Worthy Play % 2.6% 2.2%

I believe Mac Jones will play better while New England's defense continues to ball, leading to another Patriots victory.

Dog of the Day: Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

I trust Matt Ryan! He has been slinging it around the yard all season, as he ranks 10th in PFF passing grade this season. Nevertheless, I still believe Dak Prescott, who ranks seventh in PFF passing grade, is the better quarterback.

Quarterback comparison
Metric Prescott Ryan
PFF Passing Grade 85.5 84.7
Average Depth Of Target 8.8 7.6
Adjusted Completion % 75.6 77.5
Big-Time Throw % 5.3% 4.7%
Turnover-Worthy Play % 2.3% 2.6%

I expect both of these QBs to have impressive performances, to be honest, but I just don't think the Falcons offense will let the Cowboys get too far ahead.

After an embarrassing loss last week to the Denver Broncos, when the Cowboys posted season-low overall (63.0), team-offense (67.1) and team-defense (53.7) grades, I expect the Cowboys play with some sense of urgency at home.  My mind is telling the Cowboys will win a close game at home, but my heart tells me to pick the Falcons moneyline (+310).

However, I think I will stick with my mind on this one!

In addition, two of my favorite young cornerbacks in the game — AJ Terrell, who ranks second in coverage grade among all CBs (83.8, min. 50 snaps) and Trevon Diggs, who leads the NFL in interceptions (seven) — will take the field. I will be locked into this one!

Darius Butler is a former NFL free safety. He was drafted by the New England Patriots in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft. He has also played for the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts.

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