NFL News & Analysis

Ranking all 32 NFL offenses by expected points added on scripted plays ahead of Week 11

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) drops back to pass against the Chicago Bears during the first quarter at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

• Dolphins setting the tone early in games: Miami leads the way in expected points added on their first 15 offensive plays of games.

• Eagles, Bills, Chiefs round out the top five: The best teams in the NFL understandably get off to hot starts in games, with each of these contenders placing at the top.

Estimated Reading Time: 6 mins

Scripted plays — defined as an offense's first 15 plays in a game — are the ultimate tone-setters. Below is the ranking of all 32 NFL offenses by expected points added (EPA) from scripted plays ahead of Week 11 and the in-depth nuances of how they got there. 

1.  Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins possess the second-highest explosive run percentage in the league (17.6%) on scripted plays. Through the air, they're just as productive when it comes to finding the end zone. Miami is tied for the fifth-most touchdown passes (four) on the first 15 plays of games.

2. Tennessee Titans

The Titans may not feature a game-changing offense from start to finish, but their EPA on scripted plays is among the league's best. Tennessee is tied for the fifth-most explosive run plays during scripted play situations (nine). They trail only the Bears for the NFL lead in rushing yards after contact, as well (295).

3. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles' aerial attack has delivered 560 passing yards — a top-10 mark on scripted plays. The team is just as effective on the ground, tying for first in rushing touchdowns (three) on scripted plays.

4. Buffalo Bills

Six passing touchdowns on scripted plays (first) headlines the early-game production of the explosive Buffalo passing attack. The Bills are also one of 12 teams to have over 300 yards receiving after contact (303).

5. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs' five touchdown passes on scripted plays trail only the Bills for the top spot. They’re just as productive in pass protection, surrendering only one sack on scripted plays, which is tied for the second-fewest in the NFL.

6. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings rank top-10 in pass attempts (76) on scripted plays, and the yardage has followed suit. Minnesota's 568 passing yards are the eighth-most in such situations.

7.  San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers' ground game has been the team's scripted-play identity. Their 68 rushes rank 10th-most, and their 409 rushing yards rank third-most.

8. Detroit Lions

The Lions' 563 passing yards on scripted plays rank ninth in the NFL through Week 10. When it comes to pass blocking in such situations, Detroit has allowed just one sack — tied for second-fewest.

9. Cleveland Browns

The Browns' ground attack has a top-10 scripted-play ranking in rushing yards (345). Their three rushing scores are tied for the league lead with six other teams.

10. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons' 10 explosive run plays are tied for second in the NFL, helped by the team having 77 rushing attempts on scripted plays (third-most).

11. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars' scripted passing game has produced 523 yards through the air. That's a top-15 mark manufactured from 70 pass attempts.

12. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders own a top-15 scripted-play passer rating (97.3). Their top-10 explosive pass percentage isn't shabby, either, at 17.1% — which ranks sixth in the NFL.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs place rank tied for second in scripted-play completions (59) and are equally as proficient in the yardage category (680, second-most). Tampa Bay's 15 explosive pass plays in such situations rank second.

14. Chicago Bears

The Bears feature the No. 1 rushing attack on scripted plays, with 463 yards. They've also broken off 13 explosive runs (15-plus yards) on their first 15 offensive plays of a game, which sits alone as the league's best.

15. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have a 46% scripted run-play percentage so far this season, which is tied for 11th in the NFL. Green Bay does fall just short of the league-average benchmark for explosive run-play percentage (10.4%) on such plays.

16.  Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's eight explosive run plays rank in the top 15 on scripted plays. The Ravens' 17 rushing first downs are a top-10 mark, as well.

17. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals' scripted play EPA mark is at the league average, mainly buoyed by pass plays. Cincinnati has attempted 79 passes on such plays, and their 612 scripted passing yards form a top-five mark.

18. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are tied for third in scripted explosive pass plays (15-plus yards), at 14, joining elite company — including the Buffalo Bills.

19. New Orleans Saints 

The Saints have a top-10 rushing attempt total on scripted plays (73), and they trail only the Bears for the league lead in scripted rushing yards (413).

20. New England Patriots

The Patriots are one of two teams to not have scored a touchdown on their first 15 offensive plays this season. New England has also surrendered 25 quarterback pressures during these situations, which ranks in the bottom 25% of the league.

21. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have mustered just three explosive scripted run plays this season, which is the fourth-fewest in football. And they've scored just once on the ground in such situations despite ranking in the top 15 in rush attempts (64).

22. New York Giants

The Giants are tied for the second-fewest explosive scripted pass plays through Week 10 (seven). This is despite their 68 total scripted pass attempts, which is right below the league average.

23. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are one of just four teams through Week 10 with fewer than 10 rushing first downs on scripted plays.

24. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona presents a top-10 rushing total on scripted plays (314) but has failed to turn those gains into consistent scores. The Cardinals have just one total scripted rushing score this season despite having a league-average 61 rush attempts.

25. Denver Broncos

The Broncos possess one of the worst scripted explosive run play percentages in football through Week 10, at 8.5%. They somewhat make up for it through the air, with 13 explosive pass plays from their 76 pass attempts — a top-10 figure.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are one of two teams to have thrown three interceptions on scripted play interceptions, joining the Houston Texans.

27. Houston Texans

Houston's 4.8% turnover-worthy play rate on scripted plays is the worst mark in the NFL thus far.

28. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers' 45 rush attempts are the second-fewest on scripted rushing plays in the NFL.  Consequently, Los Angeles has the fourth-fewest rushing yards (185).

29. New York Jets

The Jets have the sixth-fewest passing yards on scripted plays (402). The team has yet to throw a scripted play passing touchdown this season.

30. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers' 76 scripted rushing attempts highlight their heavy emphasis on being run-centric early on. The downside is they've managed just six explosive runs, which is around the league average.

31.  Washington Commanders

Having allowed 11 sacks on scripted plays, the Commanders sit in the cellar by a wide margin. Their 28 total pressures allowed are just two off the league lead, as well, which speaks volumes to their anemic offensive line.

32. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts' offensive line hasn't been the reliable source of pass protection many projected in 2022. Their seven allowed scripted play sacks ties for the second-worst total in football. On the ground, they've mustered 217 scripted rush yards, which is the ninth-worst total in the NFL.


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