- Quarterbacks are taking better care of the football: Passers combined for the fewest turnover-worthy plays since 2010, signifying a change in quarterback play.
- Late-down success rates have changed: Teams are less likely to convert on third-and-11 or longer but have a better chance of making it on fourth down.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
Although rules get modified in advance of every NFL season, the essence of professional football remains essentially the same on a yearly basis. But as new play-calling wrinkles get introduced and teams have access to greater data, the sport changes every season.
The 2024 NFL campaign may have felt relatively similar to 2023 and others of the past few years, but specific numerical points reveal some major patterns. Below are 10 schematic observations from 2024 that underscore growing patterns or trends to keep an eye on in 2025 and beyond.
The run is unbelievably back
Even without perusing box scores or reviewing PFF data, this breakthrough was pretty evident. Watching Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and others run laps around competition and waltz to end zones every week made for a treat. And, as PFF data reveals, the entire NFL put more of an emphasis on the ground game in 2024.
Of the top 10 offenses in EPA per play last season, seven also ranked in the top 10 in rushing EPA per play. In other words, for teams to establish effective, efficient offenses, the run needs to be at least a prominent feature — if not a driver. Recent gameplay and analysis have demonstrated that passing helps generate chunk plays and score points, but players and coaches reemphasized just how crucial the run is for fielding a high-flying offense.
In 2024, teams averaged a 30.13% rushing success rate, which was up from 28.84% the year before. Moreover, players amassed a gaudy 1,513 total explosive runs (rushes of 15-plus yards), much more than the 1,437 in 2023.
Boiling down performance to the running back level also sheds light on this truth: Running backs were better than ever in 2024. Among rushers with 100 or more carries last season, 11 earned a PFF rushing grade above 85.0 (ironically enough, excluding Barkley), which is the most in a single season since 2006. On top of that, the league averaged 2.94 yards after contact per carry, the best since PFF began tracking data in 2006.
Essentially, teams are leaning back into the run to fuel efficient offenses because the ground game can now produce big plays through elite runners.
Quarterbacks are smarter with the ball
Many around the NFL debate whether this era of quarterbacks — featuring Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and more — is one of the best ever, thanks to the group's combination of elite accuracy, arm talent, extended playmaking and care of the ball. In terms of decision-making, there’s a real argument to be made that the current age of passers has separated itself in its ability to avoid mistakes.
Last year, quarterbacks totaled only 675 turnover-worthy plays, which was a major drop from the 743 accrued in 2023. In fact, that 2024 number was the lowest by NFL gunslingers since 2010 — which predated the 17-game regular season.
The league’s premier quarterbacks flashed in large part because of simply not making unwise throws or losing control of the ball. Last season, five quarterbacks with 500-plus dropbacks — Jayden Daniels, Jackson, Bo Nix, Aaron Rodgers and Burrow — posted a sub-2.0% turnover-worthy play rate, the most under 2% in a season since 2009. On the flip side, only six qualified passers — Sam Darnold, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy — ended with at least a 3% turnover-worthy play rate, also the fewest in 15 years.
It's noteworthy that passers aren’t tossing as many big-time throws — players combined for 810 last season compared to 869 in 2023 — but simultaneously aren’t as sloppy. A new paradigm has appeared in quarterback play, which stresses taking care of the ball instead of making riskier passes deeper down the field (more on that in a bit).
RPO rates are diminishing
When RPOs emerged in the late 2010s, they were perceived as a game-bending addition to offensive play-calling, the ability to mesh two plays in one while deceiving defenses. However, coaches and coordinators are now steering away from RPOs.
In 2024, teams combined to run 3,377 RPOs, considerably fewer than the 3,957 in 2023. More specifically, last year’s total RPO number was the lowest since 2020, making it the fewest since snap volume expanded in 2021.
You may be wondering why. The answer is clearer when examining how conducive RPOs are to offensive success. Teams averaged only 9.94 explosive plays off RPOs in 2024, the lowest in five seasons. Likewise, the average number of first downs gained by a team on RPOs over the 2024 campaign (25.72) was easily the worst in the four years of the 17-game regular season. Put another way, organizations are moving away from RPOs because they don’t tend to produce either first downs or explosive plays, each of which has proven paramount to winning games.
But, some RPO data does seem optimistic about the play’s future. Last year featured the highest average EPA per play (-0.047) and success rate (31.2%) on RPOs since 2021, and teams still averaged 4.22 yards per play on RPOs, which was relatively on par with each of the prior three seasons. It wouldn’t be shocking if the RPO returns to become more common in 2025, given that defenses aren’t preparing for it quite as much and that the play can still be effective.
Kickers are better from deep than ever
When watching games last year, you probably thought, Man, when did kicks from 57-plus feel this easy? Now, there’s an answer (one that proves you right, too).
In 2024, kickers converted 58.2% of attempts from 57 yards or deeper, which was the best make rate in PFF history. That success fueled a whopping 55 tries from that distance, which was also the most in PFF’s database by a wide margin — the next most was 37 in 2023. Consider that Billy Cundiff was the only kicker to even try from 57 or longer in 2012.
While the league’s preeminent kickers are especially great from 57 or longer, it’s not a one-man show. Nine players made multiple field goals of 57 yards or longer. The showstopper, though, has to be Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey, who finished 7-for-9 with a 99.9 PFF field-goal grade on such attempts.
Coaches are increasingly likely to go for it if they’re between the 40-yard lines on fourth down, but the good news is that kicking from 57 is becoming a safer bet.
It’s harder to convert third-and-longs than before
When listening to NFL broadcasts, a focus is repeatedly placed on avoiding negative plays, or snaps that lose yardage and put offenses behind the sticks. As PFF data backs, those plays turn out to be relatively catastrophic for sustaining a drive.
The league average conversion rate on third-and-11 or longer sat at just 16.4% in 2024, which was the worst since 2013. Offenses may wield more firepower and talent than ever in the past 10 years, but there’s still no consistently effective design from that distance, especially with defenses being able to play more conservatively — or even blitz.
At the same time, the average yardage gained on those lengthy third downs was 6.25, the best since 2021. Teams may not be able to actually make it those 11-plus yards, but if they’re in the right territory, they can definitely go for it while staying within 10 yards of the first down marker on fourth down.
Teams are better at converting fourth downs, but may be overambitious
Much like teams putting bigger portions onto their running backs’ plates, the prevalence of fourth-down tries has become apparent to most football fans. As PFF data indicates, there are generally good reasons why coaches are rolling the dice more often.
Teams converted 56.18% of their fourth-down attempts in 2024, the highest clip since 2018. Instead of punting or trying a field goal (many organizations don’t have the luxury of a reliably great kicker), coaches have better than a coin flip's chance of picking up another set of downs. In a game predicated on possessions and time, that feels like simple math depending on field position.
What’s also important to consider is whether the NFL’s fourth-down trends may be prompting bad decisions. Indeed, the league-wide “agree” rate based on PFF’s fourth-down model (i.e., how often a team actually did what PFF’s model recommended) was just 74.5% in 2024, the lowest cumulative mark since 2012. Because teams are witnessing their counterparts grow more eager on fourth downs, they may feel more inclined to go for it, even when that choice isn’t recommended.
Highest-Graded Offensive Players on Fourth Down (Min. 10 Snaps)
Cover 3 is still the NFL’s favorite look, but Cover 1 is on the rise
The debate surrounding man or zone coverage and which is better will continue to rage, but PFF metrics demonstrate a clear winner as to which the NFL prefers. In 2024, Cover 3 was still the NFL’s most prominent coverage, with 24 teams running it on at least 25% of their snaps and 25 squads featuring the look the most of any.
Yet, Cover 3 may be losing its favoritism a tad in defensive meeting rooms. The 10,905 total Cover-3 snaps across the NFL last year were the fewest since 2020, with the coverage’s frequency declining in both of the past two years.
Cover 1 has entered in its place. In 2024, the 7,740 Cover-1 snaps throughout the league were the most since 2021. While that number is much lower than in 2019 and 2020, it still reveals that teams are back to running single-high man coverage as part of the game’s ebb and flow. Nine teams ran Cover 1 on at least 25% of defensive snaps, which was also the most in three years.
Screen rates are elevated
The Washington Commanders emerged as one of the league’s most fascinating storylines in 2024, propelled by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s distinct approach of focusing on screens and no-huddle. As it turns out, Kingsbury wasn’t the only play caller to curate a regular screen package.
The 2,469 total screens run last year were the most since the adoption of the 17-game regular season, as six teams (including the Commanders) ran at least 100 screens, and eight sat over 90. The year before, only two surpassed 100 and four were over 90.
Examining screen success rate paints a clear picture as to why teams were more likely to implement them. The 29.68% average success rate on screens in 2024 was also the best in three years. On a team level, six squads reached a 35% success rate or better on screens, led by the Lions at 44.2%.
Another element to consider is where the ball is going on such screens. For the second straight year, those plays have increasingly been for receivers. Teams combined to execute 1,008 receiver screens in 2024, barely below the 1,014 in 2023. The average success rate on those plays also jumped from 26.63% to 29.2% from 2023 to 2024.
Highest-Graded Quarterbacks on Screens
First-year defensive coordinators deserve their flowers
Since Sean McVay's arrival in Los Angeles in 2017, the NFL hasn’t concealed its love for young, forward-thinking offensive minds. But if the 2024 season taught us anything, it’s that new NFL defensive coordinators should be placed in the same tier.
Five of the top 10 defenses in EPA per play last year — the Packers, Chargers, Dolphins, Seahawks and Ravens — were guided by first-time defensive coordinators. All five units were talented, of course, but each of those coordinators laid their fingerprints on their groups to foster success.
After initial struggles, Ravens defensive coordinator Zach Orr inserted Ar’Darius Washington (86.1 PFF coverage grade) into the starting lineup in Week 8, fortifying Baltimore's secondary, which ranked third in EPA per play over the rest of the season. The Packers' Jeff Hafley deployed more of rookie Edgerrin Cooper (85.7 PFF overall grade) in Week 5, which infused playmaking into a weak linebacking corps.
Despite handling much of the same roster as predecessor Vic Fangio, Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver simplified his scheme, running only three coverages above 10.1% compared to five in 2023. The Chargers' Jesse Minter also inherited similar personnel but played Derwin James (87.9 PFF run-defense grade, 75.2 PFF pass-rushing grade) closer to the line of scrimmage instead of deep. Under Mike Macdonald, Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde turned to a higher rate of Cover 1 and played Jarran Reed (73.7 PFF pass-rushing grade) over first-round pick Byron Murphy II (57.8 PFF overall grade).
Based on how good new defensive play callers were in 2024, keep an eye on Al Golden (Bengals), Anthony Campanile (Jaguars) and Terrell Williams (Patriots) to have similar impacts in 2025.
The go ball has faded
In tandem with the elevated run rates, it might not come as a complete surprise to learn that teams are taking fewer shots downfield, particularly using the go ball. Last season, go routes had only a 12.6% target rate, which was the lowest since PFF began tracking route data. Additionally, the 865 passes thrown to go routes were the fewest since 2018.
The pattern of lower big-time throw numbers also extends to go routes. Passers accumulated 199 big-time throws on gos in 2024, the fewest since 2019.
Part of the lower go-route frequency is potentially due to those passes needing more factors to be completed (e.g., a well-thrown ball and a good play or separation by the receiver), but that's also due to fewer deep passes overall. The 2,359 deep (20-plus-yard) passes attempted in 2024 were the fewest since 2009. In effect, because quarterbacks are trying to avoid would-be interceptions, they aren’t tossing as many lower-percentage passes down the field — with go balls the most negatively affected.
© 2025 PFF - all rights reserved.