NFL News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Cole: Doug Pederson won a Super Bowl, but it's hard to know if he's a great coach

Feb 4, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Doug Pederson hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy after a victory against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles relieved head coach Doug Pederson of his duties this week, a move that sent shockwaves through the NFC East. Pederson compiled a 45-39 record in five seasons, including three trips to the playoffs, with one such trip ending in the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory. And while rumors started to percolate late last week that Pederson and owner Jeffrey Lurie might not be aligned on the team’s future, it was still a stunning development for a team to fire its coach less than three years after winning the Super Bowl.

Pederson and his winning pedigree should attract the market's attention, but the question of whether we should be confident in him as a top candidate is another question entirely.

Results have been good for Pederson overall, but he’s also been in charge of a passing offense that has been on the decline for the last three years. Carson Wentz’s 2017 was on an MVP level, but that season is starting to look more like an aberration than a representative sample.

When you look deeper into the Eagles’ passing game performance in 2017, the crowning jewel of Pederson’s coaching success, it was largely driven by two fundamentally unstable components: late-down success and passing under pressure.

Wentz’s early- and late-down passing efficiency by expected points added (EPA) have been roughly equal in every year except for his 2017 campaign. The overall offense's success converting late downs (third and fourth down) during 2017 stands out as an outlier versus the other years that Pederson oversaw.

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Know tomorrow, today. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

NFL Featured Tools

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

    Elite
  • PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NFL player performance data.

    Available with

    Elite
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr