AFC, NFC Championship Preview: Storylines, matchups to watch, betting picks and more

2S766K8 Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates after scoring as teammate Mike Caliendo (66) watches during the second half of an NFL football AFC divisional playoff game against the Houston Texans Saturday, Jan. 18, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

There’s one final hurdle on the road to Super Bowl 59.

The conference championships are here, promising high-stakes drama and unforgettable matchups. Whether it’s star quarterbacks squaring off, underdog teams aiming to pull off stunning upsets, or key betting angles to uncover, we’ve got everything you need to know heading into the action.

Click below to jump to a game:

WAS@PHI | BUF@KC

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) [Total: 47.5]

Storyline of the Game: This NFC East rubber match plays out on the conference’s biggest stage

The first meeting between these two franchises in Week 11 took place at The Linc, where the Eagles overcame a 10-6 deficit heading into the fourth quarter to secure the win. Saquon Barkley delivered a heroic final frame, rushing six times for 76 yards and two touchdowns to seal the victory.

The Commanders flipped the script when the series shifted to Washington in Week 16. Despite falling behind 14-0 early, they mounted a dramatic comeback behind Jayden Daniels. The rookie quarterback threw for 139 yards and three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning score with under 10 seconds remaining, in a wild game that featured six turnovers by Washington.

That Week 16 matchup, however, came with a significant caveat: Jalen Hurts was knocked out in the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. This raises the question of whether the Commanders can replicate their success against a fully healthy Eagles squad and secure another postseason win in a hostile environment.

These two storied franchises haven’t crossed paths in the playoffs since 1991, but if their 2024 matchups are any indication, this final showdown between bitter NFC East rivals promises to be the most intense yet.

Matchups to Watch: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles LB Zack Baun

Jayden Daniels, the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, has delivered a historic 2024 campaign, earning a 90.5 overall grade — the second-highest ever by a rookie quarterback in the PFF era (since 2006). Daniels has continued to shine in the playoffs, leading all passers in the divisional round with an 83.6 passing grade against the Lions.

Defensively, the Eagles are anchored by Zack Baun, the NFL’s highest-graded linebacker (90.2) in 2024. Baun’s elite coverage instincts and anticipation earned him a league-best 91.4 coverage grade, with five forced turnovers in coverage this season. That included a crucial screen-turned-fumble the last time these teams clashed in Week 16.

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Betting trends

A late Rams touchdown in the divisional round snatched a 7-point cover from the Eagles, dropping their ATS record at home this season to 5-5. However, Philadelphia has hosted six of their last eight games since December, covering in four of those contests (4-2 ATS).

Winning outright as the dog in each of their playoff matchups marks Washington’s fourth straight-up win as the road dog this season and a 66.7% cover rate, tying them for the league lead in both. With a 5-2-1 ATS record when gifted points this season, PFF’s betting model shows a 1.2% PFF edge leaning towards the Commanders at +6.

Best Bet: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles — over 24.5 carries (-125)

The ever-dynamic Saquon Barkley made headlines this week as DraftKings opened his rushing yardage line at an eye-popping 130.5 yards—the highest total ever posted by the sportsbook. While that number may seem lofty, it’s well within reach for Barkley, who has racked up 296 rushing yards against Washington this season. However, targeting his volume may present a more secure angle.

Barkley has surpassed this rushing attempts line in every game against the Commanders this season, as well as in each of his last four outings, accumulating over 110 carries during that stretch. Philly’s commitment to the ground game has been central to their success, as they stand as the only team in the NFL with a run play percentage exceeding 50% this year.

Additional News

Eagles Injury Update: Center Cam Jurgens (back) returned to practice in limited fashion on Friday but remains questionable for the NFC Championship.

Commanders Injury Report: Defensive lineman Daron Payne (knee/finger) is listed as questionable, while guard Sam Cosmi (knee) has been ruled out.

Award Honors: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been named the PFWA Rookie of the Year. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley earned PFWA Offensive Player of the Year honors.

AP NFL Award Finalists: Commanders nominees include quarterback Jayden Daniels (Offensive Rookie of the Year) and head coach Dan Quinn (Coach of the Year). Eagles nominees include running back Saquon Barkley (Most Valuable Player & Offensive Player of the Year), linebacker Zack Baun (Defensive Player of the Year), cornerbacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell (Defensive Rookie of the Year) and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (Assistant Coach of the Year).

NFC Championship Ceremony: Former Eagles quarterback Nick Foles will serve as the honorary captain for the NFC Championship Game.

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BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2) [Total: 48.5]

Storyline of the Game: Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen

The ninth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is set to add another thrilling chapter to their storied rivalry. The two quarterbacks hold a 4-4 record in head-to-head matchups, though Allen’s success has primarily come in the regular season. The postseason, however, tells a different story, with Mahomes and the Chiefs holding a 3-0 advantage, including a victory in the 2020 AFC Championship game.

Despite the playoff disparity, Allen has had his moments in this rivalry, particularly at Arrowhead Stadium. He has won three of his five career games in Kansas City, posting an impressive 90.3 overall grade in those matchups.

Buffalo enters this matchup seeking redemption after last season’s heartbreaking three-point loss in the divisional round. If their performance in Week 11 against the Chiefs at Arrowhead is any indication, the Bills appear ready for the challenge. In that game, Josh Allen delivered a masterful performance, recording five big-time throws with zero turnover-worthy plays, earning an impressive 83.7 PFF passing grade.

Matchups to Watch: QB Patrick Mahomes vs. The Bills' secondary

Mahomes has built his legacy on postseason excellence, producing some of the most remarkable metrics in NFL history when the stakes are highest. His 90.5 playoff passing grade is the best in the PFF era (since 2006), fueled by 33 big-time throws and a minuscule 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate on 300-plus playoff dropbacks — the lowest among qualified quarterbacks.

In the divisional round, Mahomes showcased his signature brilliance with three Big Time Throws, setting the tone for another deep playoff push. This week, he faces Buffalo’s two-high shell, a look the Bills deployed at the fourth-highest rate in the league this season. It’s a challenge Mahomes is well-equipped for, ranking as the NFL’s eighth-highest graded passer against two-high coverage.

The Bills’ struggles in coverage this season (31st in team coverage grade at 38.9) could prove costly against a seasoned playoff performer like Patrick Mahomes. Those concerns are only heightened by injuries in the secondary, with Taylor Rapp already ruled out and Christian Benford still in concussion protocol as of Saturday. Against Mahomes, who thrives in exploiting defensive weaknesses, Buffalo’s undermanned secondary may face a steep uphill battle.

Travis Kelce: PFF grades and stats since 2014
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Betting trends

Despite coming into the postseason with just a 3-7 ATS record, Josh Allen and the Bills have covered both their playoff matchups entering the AFC Championship. In the divisional round, Allen overcame his 0-3 ATS mark as a postseason underdog, knocking off Baltimore as 1.5-point dogs.

After covering as 2.5-point favorites at home in Buffalo during the regular season, the Bills will look to repeat that success in Kansas City, where Allen holds a positive 3-2 ATS record all-time versus Mahomes at Arrowhead. However, none of those covers have come in the postseason despite being gifted points twice.

Conversely, Mahomes and the Chiefs have obviously owned this rivalry in the postseason, with an unblemished 3-0 ATS mark. However, 2024 hasn’t treated them well in betting markets when playing at home. At Arrowhead this season, Kansas City has gone just a 4-5 ATS, including their failed cover in the divisional round. But that could still present an issue for a Bills team that holds just a 1-3 ATS mark as road dogs this season.

Best bet: WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills — over 5.5 receptions

According to PFF’s Key Insights, Khalil Shakir is set up for success in a favorable matchup against the Chiefs secondary. Shakir ranks 17th among wide receivers in target rate on pressured passing plays, which bodes well against a Chiefs defense generating the eighth-highest pressure rate in the NFL.

Shakir has been a reliable option for the Bills this postseason, exceeding this reception line in both playoff games. With a league-high 43% of the Chiefs' allowed receptions going to slot receivers, Shakir should find plenty of opportunities, especially after recording nine catches in their Week 11 matchup.

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Additional News

Bills Award Finalists: Multiple Bills have been recognized as finalists for AP NFL awards, including quarterback Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player, safety Damar Hamlin for Comeback Player of the Year, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady for Assistant Coach of the Year.

Chiefs Recognition: Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has been named a finalist for the AP Coach of the Year award.

Fundraiser for Mark Andrews' Charity: In a display of sportsmanship, Bills fans raised over $100,000 for Breakthrough T1D, a diabetes care non-profit supported by Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, after Baltimore's heartbreaking divisional-round loss.

Bills Injury Updates: Cornerback Christian Benford (concussion/personal) was absent from practice on Friday but is expected to return to the team over the weekend. Safety Taylor Rapp (back/hip) has been ruled out.

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