So it all comes down to this, Week 17.
Those in the playoff hunt know what they have to do and what help they need to get to the big dance. Those with playoff spots sealed are thinking about how best to rest & maintain momentum. Those out of the running are left wishing for the blind optimism of September to return to them.
This week is all about the play-in games, so Marquee Matchups runs a magnifying glass over the key matchup of each games.
St Louis DRE James Hall vs. Seattle LT Russell Okung
James Hall, after a poor game against New Orleans in Week 14, rebounded with two of his strongest showings of the season against Kansas City (+4.4) and San Francisco (+5.1). It’s unclear who will be lining up at QB for the Seahawks on Sunday, but they will need a strong display from Russell Okung — probably his best game of the season. Okung’s rookie season has been inconsistent and blighted by injury, but he has shown potential with strong displays in pass protection in New Orleans (+1.2) and at home to Carolina (+2.1). Okung has not graded below -1.0 since week 11 against Kansas City (-1.1) and he will be looking to break Hall’s two game streak to give either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst the time to throw against the Rams’ secondary.
NY Giants C Rich Seubert vs. Washington NT Anthony Bryant
The Giants blew their chance at controlling their destiny last week with a shocking display in Green Bay, now they’ve got to rebound and beat a Washington team who is still playing hard down the stretch. The solace for the Giants is that they put up 31 points on the Redskins just one month ago, and with Shaun O’Hara back on the trainer's table they have their strongest performer, Rich Seubert, back at center this week as the Giants will surely look to win this one on the ground. The Redskins came up with their strongest performance against the run all season last week in Jacksonville, whether they can replicate that may determine whether the Giants keep their playoff hopes alive or not. Bryant has been subpar, and while Seubert has struggled the last month (-3.3 for the last 3 weeks) he should be able to get back to his form.
Tennessee HB Chris Johnson vs. Indianapolis MLB Gary Brackett
Coming into the season this might have been viewed as a division decider, but due to injuries and in-house turmoil the Titans can only play the role of spoiler. Even with momentum and record on the Colts side this game is always a vulnerable matchup for them — the Titans like to run & the Colts don’t like to stop the run. If Chris Johnson can get on track the pressure will be on Peyton Manning to keep pace with him. In the last two Colts-Titans games Johnson has topped 100 yards both times and forced 9 missed tackles — but only broken the goal-line once. Gary Brackett matches up poorly against a lot of running games but his mobility is an aid against Johnson. He can't match him athletically, and won’t make many plays close to the line of scrimmage, but he can at least get himself into positions to prevent Johnson making the big play. The Colts’ defensive line doesn’t match up well with the Titans’ offensive line so if the Colts are to keep the Titans quiet it will be on Brackett to cut off the big play and make Johnson & the Titans work for every score.
Jacksonville DT Terrance Knighton vs. Houston LG Wade Smith
Two crushing defeats on the bounce and suddenly the Jags need help from division foe Tennessee to get back the division title they squandered in Indianapolis two weeks ago. They can take solace from the fact they face a Texans team that has mirrored its customary season — they started fast and finished slow. Wade Smith has bracketed an inconsistent mid-season stretch with some outstanding displays at the start & end of the season. He appeared in our first quarter All-Pro team and has returned to that sort of form in the last two weeks with strong displays against Baltimore (+3.4), Tennessee (+4.2) and Denver (+3.4). The first encounter between these two saw Knighton get the better of Smith (three defensive stops); with playoffs & personal accolades gone Smith can only hope to reverse that first encounter.
Chicago DEs Julius Peppers & Israel Idonije vs. Green Bay OTs Chad Clifton & Bryan Bulaga
Green Bay's job isn’t finished yet, but momentum is on their side at least. Last week’s game again was blighted by poor pass protection from Bulaga at RT but Rodgers was able to overcome this — and he’d better be ready to do so again. The Bears’ defensive ends will surely be looking to get a strong display under their belts before the postseason, and knocking the rival Packers out would just be the cherry on the cake. Mark Tauscher was at RT for the first Packers-Bears encounter this season and Rodgers will hope for a stronger showing from Bulaga than Tauscher put in (a hit and 5 pressures). Clifton was penalized three times on the other side as the Packers struggled to get a grip on the edge. Peppers also did a lot of damage against the run; a similar dominant display from Peppers could see the Packers watching the playoffs from home.
Tampa Bay HB LaGarrette Blount vs. New Orleans MLB Jonathan Vilma
In the first encounter between these two in week 6, the Buccaneers offense was blanked. Clearly they can’t afford for that to happen again, and Blount will need to get on track and punish the Saints’ defensive front to open things up for Josh Freeman in the passing game. The man to beat for Blount will be Vilma, who having struggled all season against the run (-7.5 grade going in to week 16) came up with one of his strongest displays of the season against the Falcons (+1.6, 4 defensive stops). Blount leads all running backs in forced missed tackles this season with 48, 16 of in the last month. The Saints missed just three tackles in the Week 6 encounter, and Blount will need to increase on that by drawing defenders into the box and working the clock to give the Bucs a chance at a miraculous playoff spot.
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